Texas Spring 2025

[Brent]

Actually below normal temps showing up in early April we've barely had any the entire month of March

[Ntxw]

Weeklies advertise a colder below normal start to April much of the US. Lag from the recent final warming and resulting -NAO. Will probably clamp down on severe weather some at least during week 2 and 3.

[ElectricStorm]

A second slight risk added in TX, includes DFW for 15# hail area. Also 5% tornado area added from OKC to Tulsa.

Gotta love Spring in the Plains, this was looking like a cap bust a couple days ago.

[TomballEd]

Will March break March 1907's record as warmest March?

[wxman22]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this
evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized
thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward
across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an
upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great
Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this
morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern
IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep
southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the
period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains
this afternoon.

Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on
southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK
border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective
development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the
cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location
for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the
trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector.

Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across
western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse
rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast
soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops
south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail
(potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these
storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing
CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb
temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado
risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually
grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with
time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK
and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat
slowly diminishing late.

Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red
River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley.
It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the
vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until
late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50
kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe
risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated
coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of
central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance
(e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective
signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight
Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the
stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter).

[snownado]

A second slight risk added in TX, includes DFW for 15# hail area. Also 5% tornado area added from OKC to Tulsa.

Gotta love Spring in the Plains, this was looking like a cap bust a couple days ago.

Still could happen for N. Texas...

[txtwister78]

CPC outlook continues to look encouraging. Models aren't really showing this as of yet however if the Euro is right regarding this cool down it has been advertising in the medium/long range, perhaps we can get some of these fronts to push further south into Texas and create some additional opportunities for rainfall in the extended.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 if we go out even further, noaas 3-4 week outlook favors above average precipitation through the end of April for texas, thats very encouraging since we are getting closer to summer, this could definitely help to limit the severity of drought that we see with summer coming up

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 if we go out even further, noaas 3-4 week outlook favors above average precipitation through the end of April for texas, thats very encouraging since we are getting closer to summer, this could definitely help to limit the severity of drought that we see with summer coming up

Yup. Just trying not to get too far ahead as we've been bitten by that head fake a few times in my region but as you point out, at least it's showing up as a possibility. No question April and May are the months we need to cash in on before things begin to shift north into the summer months.

[Brent]

I'm just glad to see some weather forecasts that isn't screaming fires and smoke again... We can work on the rest

[ElectricStorm]

Hailers firing west of DFW. Went from nothing to severe warned in 2 scans

[rwfromkansas]

Getting an early start. Was supposed to be a late night event.

[snownado]

There's still some residual capping. Will be interesting to see if the storms can maintain themselves long.

That said, meanwhile, SPC has a mesoscale discussion for a possible watch.

[snownado]

There's still some residual capping. Will be interesting to see if the storms can maintain themselves long.

That said, meanwhile, SPC has a mesoscale discussion for a possible watch.

And they pulled the trigger on the Watch, until 2am...

[rwfromkansas]

There's still some residual capping. Will be interesting to see if the storms can maintain themselves long.

That said, meanwhile, SPC has a mesoscale discussion for a possible watch.

I think they are supposed to be elevated. Wouldn’t the cap be irrelevant to that?

[wxman22]

[Brent]

Tornado watch here

Continuing the trend of nighttime storms

[ElectricStorm]

Golf ball hail from a left split approaching the western parts of the OKC metro

[Quixotic]

Think we are about to get walloped.

[snownado]

Just got a notification about a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

Half dollar-sized hail reported in Lewisville.

If nothing else, the light show is impressive.