Texas Spring 2025

[snownado]

The hail core tracked over Frisco.

Not a ton of wind with this either. Mostly just torrential downpours and vivid lightning.

[snownado]

With the aid of some compressional heating ahead of the front, and provided cloud debris / stratocumulus is kept to a minimum, DFW has another shot at hitting 90*F on Sunday.

[snownado]

The hail core tracked over Frisco.

Not a ton of wind with this either. Mostly just torrential downpours and vivid lightning.

McKinney's Airport (where that hail core tracked) reported a 61 MPH gust.

[Brent]

We officially have a wind chill

[CaptinCrunch]

Just light rain across southern Tarrant last night, lots of cloud lightening and a few rumbles of thunder.

[Quixotic]

What was weird about last night’s storm was that it usually feels cooler afterwards. It actually felt warmer and more humid. My weather station bit the dust so I can’t prove this with data.

[snownado]

There is another conditional chance of more severe t'storms this afternoon ahead of the cold front. It will depend, in part, on timing of initiation (it could hold off until the front is SE of here).

[rwfromkansas]

I’m in the green which with severe weather means eh, nothing will happen.

Too far west again.

At least I got a little rain last night.

[wxman22]

Actual rainfall totals over the last 168 hours below. Not a bad way to end the month.

With more widespread rainfalls on the way later this week especially for the northern half of Texas and also Oklahoma. As a large trough sets up west, the orientation of the trough will allow divergence aloft with numerus disturbances moving through in the SW flow aloft. Main threat for now looks to be heavy rains. With a secondary threat of hail due to elevated thunderstorms on the cold side of the system with decent lapse rates. Will also need to watch the placement of the warm front and warm sector closely, as a more organized warm sector that moves farther inland could pose a tornado threat as shear will be more than sufficient. The SW flow aloft may create capping issues in the southern half of the state though.

[txtwister78]

Interesting to see how this pattern evolves over the coming days as most of the ensemble guidance keeps the bulk of heavier rainfall centered NE of the SC TX region whereas yesterday's CPC outlook showed higher probabilities of above normal precip in the 6-10 day range.

Main question continues to be how far does the frontal boundary push and then stall late in the week before eventually moving on through as cooler air invades from the north? I think that will be key into determining whether that CPC outlook verifies giving the SC TX and South TX region more opportunities for rainfall.

[txtwister78]

CPC new outlook definitely caved to what the Euro had been showing over the last few days regarding a much cooler airmass settling in over Texas. Still keeps the above normal precip around in the 6-10 (although not as bullish with probs across SC TX) but their outlook changes drastically from yesterday's 8-14 precip outlook as a result of the cooler/drier airmass overtaking the state in the long range. Should see a break from the severe weather based on these trends as well.

[txtwister78]

While we wait on the evolution of the cutoff low and progress of the frontal boundary late in the week, more dryline conditional storm chances will continue as SPC has a broad area of severe weather potential across the state on Tuesday.

[snownado]

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/19064382994 ... wcFtQ&s=19

[snownado]

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1906438299410923582?t=VOYRTMJePO49s9j7MwcFtQ&s=19

There's an attempt at initiation just west of Fort Worth...

[rwfromkansas]

Surprised. A storm just developed over me.

[wxman22]

There could be some tornadic supercells if the cap breaks on Tuesday. Hodographs are very curved up here. Its conditional but will also need to be watched. The severe weather season is here.

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon
across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat
expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail,
severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Synopsis...
The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the
central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially
significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday
evening and early Wednesday morning.

...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great
Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet
will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a
intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains
during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level
moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will
advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with
a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be
in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though
lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline
development.

At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early
evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of
the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a
risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells
that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic,
as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase.

Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional
storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward
across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions
remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can
remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards
could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms
may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of
large hail and locally damaging gusts.

[snownado]

Surprised. A storm just developed over me.

It's now warned.

Congrats!

[snownado]

Severe T'Storm Watch in effect until 10pm for Collin/ Dallas / Tarrant counties...

[snownado]

Surprised. A storm just developed over me.

It's now warned.

Congrats!

Multiple half-dollar / golf ball size hail reports...

[snownado]

Welp, aside from the freak FW storm that collapsed just as fast as it blew up, this afternoon's Watch is turning out to be a bust...