2024 TCRs

[ncforecaster89]

Does anyone know why the 139 kt FLW, I thought I recall being measured about 35 minutes prior to landfall, wasn’t mentioned in the report? Wonder if it was considered inaccurate?

That’s the only data that can reasonably support the 120 kt landfall estimate. Everything else argues for a high-end Cat 3 (110 kt) which is still the best estimate, IMO. I will provide my reasoning within the next couple of days when I have time to share the specific details to support my contention.

[ljmac75]

My thoughts on the report:
I was a little surprised they only raised the minimum pressure by 1 mbar, but I guess they made a good enough case for it.
Why did they include the whole thing with adjustments to standard height and exposure for Sticknet 102A (the one that measured the lowest pressure) but then just went with the wind profile power law for the Sticknet near Dowling Park that measured the highest sustained winds? That was kinda weird but maybe Texas Tech only did the analysis for that one specifically.
I wonder if that $78 billion damage total is final or not, since NCEI billion dollar disasters hasn't been updated since January. If nothing else I hope we get a state-by-state breakdown of the total at some point.
248 deaths is a lot, but what's also crazy to me is that 175 of those were direct deaths, more than a 2 to 1 ratio of direct to indirect. In Ian for example it was 66 direct to 90 indirect deaths.
I might be wrong but I think this is the first time they've slapped on an extra data point specifically for a hurricane crossing into another state, at least I think that's what the 0500 entry is supposed to be (that's around the time the center moved into Georgia, although the position is a dozen miles from the border).

Does anyone know why the 139 kt FLW, I thought I recall being measured about 35 minutes prior to landfall, wasn’t mentioned in the report? Wonder if it was considered inaccurate?

Are you talking about the 139 kt measurement taken at 0035 UTC? It's on Page 5 in the second sentence under "Winds and Pressure." I don't think there was ever a 139 kt measurement taken 35 minutes prior to landfall, I think the mission was over by then.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton's TCR will be interesting... I wonder if the MSLP will be lowered even further. The 897mb was measured a few hours after peak.

[CrazyC83]

Milton's TCR will be interesting... I wonder if the MSLP will be lowered even further. The 897mb was measured a few hours after peak.

I don't think so, since at the time of the 897 pressure, it had a circular 4 nautical mile wide eye (a sign that it was at maximum intensity), and then went concentric shortly after that time. I'm guessing the 897 mb peak is correct, just at a non-synoptic time (say, 2200Z or 2230Z October 7).

Another question will be the landfall intensity. I'm thinking the NHC generously keeps it at 100 kt, but I would argue for 95 kt at Florida landfall.

[ncforecaster89]

Milton's TCR will be interesting... I wonder if the MSLP will be lowered even further. The 897mb was measured a few hours after peak.

I don't think so, since at the time of the 897 pressure, it had a circular 4 nautical mile wide eye (a sign that it was at maximum intensity), and then went concentric shortly after that time. I'm guessing the 897 mb peak is correct, just at a non-synoptic time (say, 2200Z or 2230Z October 7).

Another question will be the landfall intensity. I'm thinking the NHC generously keeps it at 100 kt, but I would argue for 95 kt at Florida landfall.

I 100% agree with everything you wrote here. My full expectations as well. I’d argue 95 kt is a 95/5 better representation of Milton’s true landfall strength, but I doubt they reduce it below a MH. I’d even favor 90 kt over 100 kt.

[ljmac75]

They've updated the Helene TCR. Death count is now 249, up from 248.

Also the Pacific HURDAT2 was updated a few days ago. Hurricane Hone is still using only operation estimates until the CPHC releases their report.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Milton TCR is out to complete the set. Peak pressure lowered to 895mb, tying it with Rita for the most intense storm ever in the Gulf.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142024_Milton.pdf

[galaxy401]

Kept the Cat 3 landfall on Florida. It also shows Milton reaching Cat 5 on three different occasions.

All the reports are out now. The retired names are next and we can put last season to rest.

[CrazyC83]

I'm quite surprised about the analyzed 895 mb peak before Recon got in. I disagree that, when 897 mb was recorded, it was weakening at that moment - the VDM had C4 (4 nm circular eye) which makes me think that was the real peak at about 2200Z, and at 2000Z it was likely around 905 mb (it had rapidly filled after the 897, but the VDM was showing concentric eyewalls so it made sense).

I also agree that the landfall intensity in Florida was uncertain and probably generous, but I'm thinking they didn't have enough information to knock it back to a category 2.

[cycloneye]

Milton is tied with 2005's Hurricane Rita for the most intense hurricane on record within the Gulf.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting part of the report.

"The lowest observed pressure in Milton was 899 mb from a dropsonde at 2220 UTC 7 October which had a surface wind of 24 kt. Thus, the estimated pressure at the time is 897 mb. As the hurricane was weakening at that time, the pressure is estimated to have been 895 mb at the time of peak intensity."

To think that the 897 mbar reading we're all familiar with was when Milton was WEAKENING is kind of surreal. Between the track and the intensity of this storm, I really think Milton was a freak of nature and that while we'll likely see additional Category 5 storms in coming years, will not see something like Milton again for a while. Or, at least I hope.

[MarioProtVI]

Seems like they left room for a 160 kt but opted not to.

[ljmac75]

I was a little surprised they didn't go for 160 kt as the peak, especially since they said recon missed the peak. I wonder if they'll consider the Florida impact as a Cat 2 or Cat 3, I know it made landfall as a 3 but it was a little ambiguous as to whether they thought Cat 3 winds actually hit the coast.

[ncforecaster89]

Agree with those that suggest the minimum pressure dropped below the estimated 895 mb peak. As far as the landfall is concerned, here are my thoughts on that:

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1906805443449491706

[Travorum]

Interesting note from Andy on SAR being mentioned in the landfall intensity discussion:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1906845649733292426




Excerpt from the report:

As the center approached the Florida west coast, aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds near 115 kt, and data from Synthetic Aperture Radar (Fig. 4) showed an area of 100–110 kt surface winds[4] over water to the
west of the center.

[4] The validity of SAR data for estimating peak winds in tropical cyclones is still being evaluated.

There's still been lots of inconsistency with using SAR and SFMR data in this year's TCRs, and there's a lot of work to be done to verify these instruments' accuracy in higher end hurricanes. Honestly its a bit weird to see SAR used to partially justify wind speeds when SFMR data was being completely disregarded by this point in the season. Should we ever see SAR get verifiably accurate enough to use operationally I would love to see a reanalysis project using the corrected SAR data.

As for Milton's min pressure, I'm a bit surprised that the NHC went with 895mb despite predicting they would do exactly that a couple months ago. As Crazy mentioned above the evidence to support that pressure is quite tentative -- for comparison Rita had sub 900mb readings from recon on both sides of its peak -- but I still think 895mb is supportable with the evidence that we have.

I agree that Milton's landfall intensity is probably a bit generous, but the real highlight of land impacts IMO was the tornado outbreak in Florida. The same shear and frontal interaction that was tearing Milton apart was fueling some truly terrifying tornadoes, the first hurricane related tornado outbreak to produce multiple EF-3s in the SPC's database (which does only go back to 1995). Milton was truly a once-in-a-generation hurricane by several metrics.

[ljmac75]

Interesting note from Andy on SAR being mentioned in the landfall intensity discussion:
As for Milton's min pressure, I'm a bit surprised that the NHC went with 895mb despite predicting they would do exactly that a couple months ago. As Crazy mentioned above the evidence to support that pressure is quite tentative -- for comparison Rita had sub 900mb readings from recon on both sides of its peak -- but I still think 895mb is supportable with the evidence that we have.

I agree that Milton's landfall intensity is probably a bit generous, but the real highlight of land impacts IMO was the tornado outbreak in Florida. The same shear and frontal interaction that was tearing Milton apart was fueling some truly terrifying tornadoes, the first hurricane related tornado outbreak to produce multiple EF-3s in the SPC's database (which does only go back to 1995). Milton was truly a once-in-a-generation hurricane by several metrics.

895 was an interesting number for them to arrive at. I'm not saying that they settled on 895 for the minimum pressure to tie it with Rita for lowest Gulf pressure but... well, I guess I am saying that, though I guess it's the best estimate. At least they're clear about the uncertainty. One of the Milton tornadoes was estimated to have caused over $500 million in damage, which is probably the record for a tropical tornado.