Texas Spring 2025

[Brent]

Possibly rain and highs in the 50s next weekend

I don't even think we saw that this month

[ElectricStorm]

Environment Tuesday looks nasty, much more potent than last night. If anything can break the cap, could be intense tornado potential. Big if of course

[HockeyTx82]

Well Evan on Fox 4 was talking up Friday being the big day for us in terms of Severe Weather for NTX. SPC shows nothing.

What is he seeing?

Looks like a wet and rainy week ahead. Hopefully the severe stuff is limited.

Is the NTX DFW area all conditional this week or there's a good chance of some big time storms?

[TomballEd]

Well Evan on Fox 4 was talking up Friday being the big day for us in terms of Severe Weather for NTX. SPC shows nothing.

What is he seeing?

Looks like a wet and rainy week ahead. Hopefully the severe stuff is limited.

Is the NTX DFW area all conditional this week or there's a good chance of some big time storms?

6Z Euro shows storms in NTX Friday afternoon/evening with ~2000 J/Kg MUCAPE and 60 to 70 knots shear. (COD website) ETA- 6Z Euro shows very little rain along/S of I-10 next 6 days.

[ElectricStorm]

From the SPC for tomorrow

Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose
an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the
evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and
low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The
Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any
increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would
necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area.

One *or more* upgrades possible

[wxman22]

From the SPC for tomorrow

Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose
an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the
evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and
low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The
Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any
increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would
necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area.

One *or more* upgrades possible

Yep, i noticed that also, If the cap breaks tomorrow watch out...

[HockeyTx82]

From the SPC for tomorrow

Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose
an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the
evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and
low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The
Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any
increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would
necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area.

One *or more* upgrades possible

They may be talking about upping the Tornado/Hail/Wind to a higher %?

[wxman22]

[HockeyTx82]

The probability of a person in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area being directly impacted by a tornado is relatively low, but it depends on several factors, including the average size of tornadoes and the frequency of tornado activity in the region.

1. **Tornado Size and Path**: The average tornado path is about 1,500 feet wide and 5 miles long. However, stronger tornadoes can have much larger paths, sometimes exceeding a mile in width and traveling tens of miles.

2. **Tornado Frequency in DFW**: The DFW area is part of "Tornado Alley," where tornadoes are more common. On average, Texas experiences about 140 tornadoes annually, but not all of them occur in the DFW area.

3. **Probability Estimates**: Studies suggest that the annual probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given location in Tornado Alley is about 0.06% to 0.1%. This means the chance of a tornado directly impacting a specific location, like a home, is even smaller.

While the odds are low, it's always wise to stay prepared, especially during tornado season (spring and early summer). Having a safety plan and staying informed through weather alerts can make a big difference. Let me know if you'd like tips on tornado preparedness!

The probability of being directly impacted by an F2 or stronger tornado in the DFW area is still relatively low, but it increases slightly due to the severity of these tornadoes. Here's what we know:

1. **Frequency of F2 or Above Tornadoes**: Tornadoes rated F2 or higher (on the Fujita scale) are less common than weaker tornadoes but are responsible for most of the damage and fatalities. In Texas, about 20% of tornadoes fall into this category.

2. **Impact Area**: F2 tornadoes typically have a path width of about 0.2 miles and a length of 5 miles, while stronger tornadoes (F3 and above) can have much larger paths. The likelihood of a specific location being hit depends on the size of the tornado and its path.

3. **Annual Risk**: Studies suggest that the annual probability of a tornado rated F2 or higher occurring within 25 miles of any given location in Tornado Alley is approximately 0.02% to 0.05%. The chance of direct impact on a specific location, like a home, is even smaller.

While the odds are low, the destructive potential of F2 or stronger tornadoes makes preparedness crucial. If you'd like, I can share tips on how to stay safe during severe weather events!

[snownado]

Well Evan on Fox 4 was talking up Friday being the big day for us in terms of Severe Weather for NTX. SPC shows nothing.

What is he seeing?

Looks like a wet and rainy week ahead. Hopefully the severe stuff is limited.

Is the NTX DFW area all conditional this week or there's a good chance of some big time storms?

I would say the threat is conditional, mainly because timing and placement of the front will be quite uncertain.

But I will say this. All these nocturnal events are starting to grind my gears. I think we've had maybe 1 widespread severe outbreak occur in DFW during peak heating since I arrived in 2020.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Possibly rain and highs in the 50s next weekend

I don't even think we saw that this month

The whole first 10 days of April look chilly after this week. What is going on? lol

[Brent]

Possibly rain and highs in the 50s next weekend

I don't even think we saw that this month

The whole first 10 days of April look chilly after this week. What is going on? lol

It seems like there's always one last front most years at least up here

[snownado]

Possibly rain and highs in the 50s next weekend

I don't even think we saw that this month

The whole first 10 days of April look chilly after this week. What is going on? lol

We finally got a legit SSWE and PV split...

[snownado]

The past 2 sets of models runs have moderated somewhat on the temps this weekend / early next week, mostly indicating 60s now and being shorter in duration.

Still looking cooler than normal for a period though.

[txtwister78]

Severe storm with big hail developed over western Bexar County.

[Edwards Limestone]

Severe storm with big hail developed over western Bexar County.

1.5-2" hail per radar scope. mPing reports of ping pong size.

[txtwister78]

Been a long time since I've had hail covering the ground at my house. I know it happened in 2016 in other areas of the city that caused significant damage but today was that day for me. Golf ball size hail hit and man it came down like a downpour.

Of course we picked up some nice rain with it but today it came with a price.

This one caught many by surprise as models and NWS had nothing forecasted. HRRR by afternoon did have one storm projected NW of my area but nothing like this. With instability in place once we got something to pop it took off quickly. At one point the storm was up around 50k ft.

[Stratton23]

Of course we finally get a real SSWE event to occur but its too little too late beaides some cooler weather, man if only that could have occurred like 3 months ago….

[Brent]

Lmao Mike Morgan predicting the coldest first half of April ever

: now we've had April's with 20s and even a little accumulating snow so..

We had an astounding 24 days above normal this month...

[ElectricStorm]

Lmao Mike Morgan predicting the coldest first half of April ever

: now we've had April's with 20s and even a little accumulating snow so..

We had an astounding 24 days above normal this month...

He loves to jump to the extremes lol. Remember last year when he said a 10# tornado area was the highest tornado threat for OKC since 2013