Texas Spring 2025

[South Texas Storms]

I'm hoping the trough can dig a little deeper into Mexico before kicking out this weekend. If this occurs, like the 12z UKMET shows, this could allow a nice line of storms to build as far south as San Antonio Saturday morning. Areas north of IH-10 look to have the best storm chances with this system.

Next week looks very nice temperature-wise with chilly mornings and very pleasant afternoons. If it's not going to rain, I'll definitely take those conditions in April.

[txtwister78]

I'm hoping the trough can dig a little deeper into Mexico before kicking out this weekend. If this occurs, like the 12z UKMET shows, this could allow a nice line of storms to build as far south as San Antonio Saturday morning. Areas north of IH-10 look to have the best storm chances with this system.

Next week looks very nice temperature-wise with chilly mornings and very pleasant afternoons. If it's not going to rain, I'll definitely take those conditions in April.

Yup. 18z ICON looks a bit more promising in that regard. I'd be surprised if we don't end with something in our rain bucket Friday evening or Saturday morning before it's all said and done.

[wxman22]

Severe storm popping up here.

[txtwister78]

Severe storm popping up here.

https://i.ibb.co/k6VtZVHd/KFDR-0.gif

Yeah they're fighting a cap so keeping most of these elevated as opposed to surface based. If they hold together tornado parameters increase across central Oklahoma so probably the other location to watch.

[ElectricStorm]

0z OUN sounding still has a pretty significant cap, think the persistent cloud cover helped keep today in check so far, although it's not over yet by any means. Latest HRRR showing more cells firing later tonight so we'll see. Plus the ones near the Red River need to be watched but may remain hailers for a while

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like one just broke through south of Breckenridge, that's way out of the watch box.

[HockeyTx82]

Latest update takes all the heavy stuff north of the Red River for the night. I guess we'll have to wait for Wednesday evening Thursday morning for our DFW event now.

Not to say there could be a rogue storm or two overnight here but who knows

[ElectricStorm]

That's two years in a row now we've had an underperforming event on April 1. April Fools I guess.
Looks like they kept the 10# for the overnight threat. We'll see

[snownado]

Latest update takes all the heavy stuff north of the Red River for the night. I guess we'll have to wait for Wednesday evening Thursday morning for our DFW event now.

Not to say there could be a rogue storm or two overnight here but who knows

00z HRRR still develops a quick-hitting line of storms for Collin / Denton County around sunrise tomorrow.

We'll see...

[txtwister78]

One thing I mentioned a few days ago and will continue to watch as we get more model data in for late in the week (Thursday afternoon into Friday evening) is how far east and south this frontal boundary pushes with much cooler air behind it as this could really impact where severe weather/heavier rainfall sets up as these airmasses collide and our system finally ejects out of the SW.

The 0z 3km NAM is pretty bullish on pushing the front through DFW late afternoon Thursday and stalling it out somewhere east of I35 and also further south into the southern HC. If the NAM is accurate this could remove severe weather threat for a good chunk of N TX Friday including DFW metro and perhaps increase the severe weather threat for areas further south and east. Something to keep an eye on especially considering the NAM having a better overall track record with frontal boundaries and their overall progression compared to the globals.

[ElectricStorm]

 https://twitter.com/StrmchsrHunterF/status/1907271150469586973

[snownado]

Latest update takes all the heavy stuff north of the Red River for the night. I guess we'll have to wait for Wednesday evening Thursday morning for our DFW event now.

Not to say there could be a rogue storm or two overnight here but who knows

00z HRRR still develops a quick-hitting line of storms for Collin / Denton County around sunrise tomorrow.

We'll see...

All of the Hi-Res models show quick-hitting activity around sunrise for DFW, FWIW...

[HockeyTx82]

An early season High Risk for part of the country today. Stay safe everyone.

As far as NTX goes, it just seems like everything keeps getting pushed off and then have not happened. Sounds like overnight and early Thursday moring north of DFW could be the main event. Guess we will see.

I just want to be able to sleep and not wake up checking the radar every hour........

[Brent]

Big wakeup call up here

Still on track for a very chilly and wet weekend might even get a freeze if we clear out by Sunday

Arkansas may have their second historic tornado outbreak of the year btw

[wxman22]

We had a quick squall line move in this morning.This looks to be the wettest setup we’ve seen since November up here. With multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain over the next few days.

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest update takes all the heavy stuff north of the Red River for the night. I guess we'll have to wait for Wednesday evening Thursday morning for our DFW event now.

Not to say there could be a rogue storm or two overnight here but who knows

00z HRRR still develops a quick-hitting line of storms for Collin / Denton County around sunrise tomorrow.

We'll see...

All of the Hi-Res models show quick-hitting activity around sunrise for DFW, FWIW...

More concerned about the round for overnight tonight. The 6z hrrr has some mean looking supercells tracking through north Texas

[snownado]

And there goes the (light stratiform) rain...

[Iceresistance]

Not a good look, and it's going to last a couple of weeks after this storm system moves away this weekend


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/bMxZZ.gif


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/bMxZa.gif

[Lagreeneyes03]

After I posted that does look like maybe a bigger more widespread Wednesday night.

Of course, it's overnight again, not during the day.

I miss seeing those afternoon thunderheads.

I do love photographing them.

[wxman22]

This is the kind of setup where there is so much shear available that you get elevated supercells in the cold sector. The HRRR shows multiple rounds of elevated supercells. The first round starting overnight around the I-20 corridor. With another round of supercells effecting NW Texas and Oklahoma overnight Thursday into Friday. Large Hail looks to be the primary threat.