Texas Spring 2025

[TomballEd]

SWODY1 (new update per site, actual outlook still shows 6Z) suggests development later today to the W/SW of DFW.

Houston is the city that gets no rain.Well anywhere along and S of I-10. Anyplace more than 50 miles W of I-35 doesn't get all that much rain either.

Haha that's crazy to me the Gulf is right there

Between low clouds and stratus off the Gulf w/ onshore flow (cool shelf waters well below the dewpoints from air over the warmer Gulf) and proximity to the Mexican highlands, we are often under the cap of forged steel. We get a lot of that back during sea breeze season and pseudo-tropical waves(aka inverted troughs), polar disturbances that round the ridge and come back at us from the E. And the odd hurricane or TS passing nearby every few years really boosts the season average. Rainfall averages climb quickly from the E side of the Houston metro towards Louisiana. We do get stalled fronts like the Tax Day Floods that will drop a month or two of rain in 2 or 3 days. https://abc13.com/tax-day-flood-flooding-houston-rain/3361014/

[TomballEd]

Yep severe weather did occur in Texas overnight/this morning it just occurred west of DFW.

As well as north along the Red River (today's storm report map has a cluster of damaging wind reports in Love County, OK).

About 4:30 there was a tornado warned storm just E of Abilene. It looked like the classic kidney bean supercell. Radar indicated. I'm guessing it was riding right along the front. No storms near Dallas yet the front just passed Waco.

[HockeyTx82]

Another issue is the excessive hype surrounding predicted storms; when these storms fail to materialize, people become less likely to heed warnings and prepare for future events.

The hype did verify for parts of Arkansas and areas adjacent. What I will say about is, you have to take into consideration it is spring. Any system will look 'great' but the actual outcome is that the odds and percentages actually effect a relative few. It's not like a winter storm where lets say ice and snow can cover an entire region. You're talking down into streets and neighborhoods. That's such a small area where only a tiny few will experience say a hail storm or tornado. It's good to be prepared, but chances are unlikely you will experience it on any given storm system at one particular location.

We do tend to get at least one or two big wind derecho type events, lately it's been May and early June. The 70mph+ storm did happen earlier in March though.

people always want to claim bust if the event did not occur in their backyard. it is exhausting...

I was not saying it busted, I was just advising that with all the talk and awareness that unfortunately when things don't happen like you said, in their backyard, they just assume we'll the weather man got it wrong again and don't pay attention. Then they get mad when and say hey why didn't you tell me a tornado was going to hit my house or baseball hail was going to ruin my roof.

I swear back when I was growing up in the '90s you just waited for the siren to go off and then you knew the weather was bad

How many conditional setups or close calls, HRRR runs that failed, models that did not work.or whatever's who knows.

Not ranting back at you, just putting conversation back into the thread.

And of course with all of this watch the entire Metroplex get completely obliterated overnight between now and Saturday.

[WeatherNewbie]

The hype did verify for parts of Arkansas and areas adjacent. What I will say about is, you have to take into consideration it is spring. Any system will look 'great' but the actual outcome is that the odds and percentages actually effect a relative few. It's not like a winter storm where lets say ice and snow can cover an entire region. You're talking down into streets and neighborhoods. That's such a small area where only a tiny few will experience say a hail storm or tornado. It's good to be prepared, but chances are unlikely you will experience it on any given storm system at one particular location.

We do tend to get at least one or two big wind derecho type events, lately it's been May and early June. The 70mph+ storm did happen earlier in March though.

people always want to claim bust if the event did not occur in their backyard. it is exhausting...

I was not saying it busted, I was just advising that with all the talk and awareness that unfortunately when things don't happen like you said, in their backyard, they just assume we'll the weather man got it wrong again and don't pay attention. Then they get mad when and say hey why didn't you tell me a tornado was going to hit my house or baseball hail was going to ruin my roof.

I swear back when I was growing up in the '90s you just waited for the siren to go off and then you knew the weather was bad

How many conditional setups or close calls, HRRR runs that failed, models that did not work.or whatever's who knows.

Not ranting back at you, just putting conversation back into the thread.

And of course with all of this watch the entire Metroplex get completely obliterated overnight between now and Saturday.

totally agree, and don't want you to think i was calling you out specifically. i think i saw the word bust 15 times in the prior 2 pages. humans don't deal well with conditional situations. back in the 90's, we had far less information, so we just had to react. now we have so much more information, we get lots of advance notice, but that comes with more false alarms that don't verify. having more information is a dual-edged sword.

[snownado]

Yep severe weather did occur in Texas overnight/this morning it just occurred west of DFW.

As well as north along the Red River (today's storm report map has a cluster of damaging wind reports in Love County, OK).

About 4:30 there was a tornado warned storm just E of Abilene. It looked like the classic kidney bean supercell. Radar indicated. I'm guessing it was riding right along the front. No storms near Dallas yet the front just passed Waco.

Early indications are the next round of storms will end up leapfrogging DFW tomorrow as well.

BTW, I'd much rather be in Houston's shoes right now. It's not so much missing out on the storms that's frustrating, but the unseasonbly cool temps, damp weather that's not conducive for outdoor activities and gloomy skies with nothing to show for it.

The 80s and 90s you all are seeing down there would be awfully nice.

[txtwister78]

Feeling a little better about our chances for some rain down into SA and parts of SC TX tomorrow evening into Saturday morning. This region should remain in the warm sector and hopefully with the boundary just to our NW we can cash in on some rainfall before all is said and done.

Regarding forecast bust in general especially when they involve the threat of severe weather, I agree with Ntxw in that when you have conditional setups in place with several parameters favorable for severe weather, I think its best you error on the side of protecting life and property by alerting the public to the threat despite the uncertainty. As we all know just like a watch box issuance, conditions may be conducive but not everyone will see impacts and sometimes those ingredients don't end up materializing real-time (cap/cloud cover, lack of forcing etc) but in my view it's better to be safe than sorry considering the alternative. Hopefully the public appreciates that approach from forecasters.

Today the public does indeed have more access to information/model data, but as I've seen this week from some chasers and so-called weather enthusiasts across social media, unfortunately the "hype machine" can feed some of the public reaction when worst case scenarios don't materialize and that's more about where one chooses to get their information than it is on any individual forecaster or office. The forecast discussions from local NWS offices really need to be highlighted more I think than what they are for this reason as a lot of good information can be gathered by the public at large to get a sense at what their local office is thinking/reviewing in terms of their region (especially when adverse weather conditions are possible).

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not very optimistic about meaningful rainfall for the IH-10 corridor tomorrow. I'm expecting SA to have a thin line of showers move through Saturday morning probably dropping less than 0.25 inch of rain. Hope I'm wrong, but that's what the model consensus shows right now. And then that's it for a while for rain. At least the temperatures look awesome for much of next week.

[rwfromkansas]

Feeling a little better about our chances for some rain down into SA and parts of SC TX tomorrow evening into Saturday morning. This region should remain in the warm sector and hopefully with the boundary just to our NW we can cash in on some rainfall before all is said and done.

Regarding forecast bust in general especially when they involve the threat of severe weather, I agree with Ntxw in that when you have conditional setups in place with several parameters favorable for severe weather, I think its best you error on the side of protecting life and property by alerting the public to the threat despite the uncertainty. As we all know just like a watch box issuance, conditions may be conducive but not everyone will see impacts and sometimes those ingredients don't end up materializing real-time (cap/cloud cover, lack of forcing etc) but in my view it's better to be safe than sorry considering the alternative. Hopefully the public appreciates that approach from forecasters.

Today the public does indeed have more access to information/model data, but as I've seen this week from some chasers and so-called weather enthusiasts across social media, unfortunately the "hype machine" can feed some of the public reaction when worst case scenarios don't materialize and that's more about where one chooses to get their information than it is on any individual forecaster or office. The forecast discussions from local NWS offices really need to be highlighted more I think than what they are for this reason as a lot of good information can be gathered by the public at large to get a sense at what their local office is thinking/reviewing in terms of their region (especially when adverse weather conditions are possible).

To be fair the FWD forecast discussion was very aggressive even overnight.

So it was surprising to have little.

[CaptinCrunch]

I have complained to the guys @ NWS office in FTW in the past at the NTX Severe Storms Conference about a better way to forecast precipitation.

Example: we have had the 70-100% Chance of rain the the DFW forecast for a few days now, only to see a wildly scattered shower pop-up. But this is how NWS calls it, even if you get a pencil wide band of precipitation in a line stretching from the Red River to Waco dropping .02” then they have satisfied they forecast assignment.

But when you are adding in the severe weather criteria of main threats of LG hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or 2, that makes the forecast seem far more certain for wide spread heavy rain and storms, and as we have witnessed the past 2 days here in DFW, that forecast wasn't the case. Even now the severe threat has beenover East of Dallas, and with these cooler temperatures, severe weather seems less likely.

[mmmmsnouts]

Another issue is the excessive hype surrounding predicted storms; when these storms fail to materialize, people become less likely to heed warnings and prepare for future events.

Painting an entire region with red shading, complete with “SEVERE” graphics and scary looking graphs of hail and wind, is really not the way to do this. Some of that is consumer error but you also have to think about how your information will be interpreted.

Maybe there needs to be an “advisory” or “potential” product that can be issued for conditional events. Something that better explains a low probability of a high impact. Of course, we may get no information from NWS at all in the not too distant future so this might be a pipe dream.

[wxman22]

Several of the local meteorologist are starting to get onboard with the possibility of heavy snow here Saturday night. We'll see... LOL

[wxman22]

The 0Z NAM is more aggressive fwiw.

[HockeyTx82]

The 0Z NAM is more aggressive fwiw.

https://i.ibb.co/LzVFGGxZ/download-6.png

https://i.ibb.co/21DjGFXT/download-7.png

Why are you posting this in the Spring forum?

[txtwister78]

Late tonight will be watching radar out west as several hi-res models are indicating some explosive development out by Del Rio around midnight. Should stay west/nw of the I-35 corridor but with the severe parameters in place tonight look out should those develop.

Tomorrow looks very active across NE TX. Wouldn't be surprised to see an SPC upgrade or potentially extending the moderate risk a bit more SW in coverage. The other thing to watch is how far south storms develop late afternoon/early evening along the 35 corridor as a few isolated storms could pop down across the Austin/northern SA region with temps climbing to near 90 again in San Antonio and then we shift our attention west as the long-awaited storm system begins to eject out and our final round of storms pushes through the area.

Still feel models will shift some of this far enough south real-time to impact SA especially if we see the line develop earlier in the evening than some models show tonight as SA metro hugs that boundary between the unstable air/warmer air and the cooler temps just to our west/nw as the front surges east.

[wxman22]

The HRRR is showing supercells in East & NE Texas tomorrow. A watch is incoming also...

Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southwest and central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 040339Z - 040545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase by 06Z across portions of
southwest and central Texas. Large hail will be the primary concern,
though severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out.
A watch will likely be issued within the hour.

DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery loops and VWP data
depict a midlevel impulse advancing northeastward across northern
Mexico -- within the base of an amplified larger-scale trough over
the West. In response, 850-700-mb warm advection will continue
strengthening across southwest into central TX over the next few
hours. This is already supporting isolated thunderstorms along the
western edge of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume and related
buoyancy (see latest SAT ACARS soundings). As the large-scale ascent
continues spreading eastward, a rapid increase in thunderstorm
development is expected within the steeper lapse rates, where
2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE (higher farther south) and 70+ kt of effective
shear will favor organized thunderstorms including supercells. Most
of these storms will be developing north of the surface-based
instability and should remain elevated with a risk of large hail.
However, any storms that develop farther south along the boundary
may be near-surface-based, posing an additional risk of severe wind
gusts and a tornado -- given ample low-level shear/clockwise-curved
hodographs. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area
within the hour.

..Weinman/Hart.. 04/04/2025

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29700203 30160213 31620180 32440144 32850099 33090040
33149985 32969923 32449894 31849892 31089902 30469931
29830001 29480067 29370121 29700203

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

[Edwards Limestone]

As y’all said, radar now lighting up out west. Looks like a couple of them are about to go warned.

Edit: already one warned near Big Lake.

[Quixotic]

These last three days have busted big time for FWD. I can’t remember the last time this has happened. Everything has been north, west or east.

[Gotwood]

Another night of no rain

[Brent]

This is the third morning in a row we've had heavy rain for the morning commute

And tomorrow even though it's Saturday looks like four

Oh and still a chance of snow Sunday I'll believe it when I see it

[wxman22]

Picked up another inch of rain overnight.