Texas Spring 2025

[txtwister78]

Yup nice signal from the euro ensemble.

[Stratton23]

Love that 18z GFS setup! Trough hanging back out westand sending frequent impulses of energy across the state,

[Stratton23]

00z Euro is very wet!

[snownado]

Temps actually end up few degrees warmer than what was expected not long ago.

It was originally supposed to be in the 70s behind tge "cold" front, but managed to get to 81*F under full sun yesterday (not a cloud to be found).

92*F is the forecast high tomorrow, with possibly another shot at 90*F by mid/late-next week. The "cool" day is looking to be Tuesday with only mid/upper 70s.

[Brent]

Last Sunday it nearly snowed

This Sunday we could hit 90 degrees

[Ntxw]

Last Sunday it nearly snowed

This Sunday we could hit 90 degrees

Most of us will be indoors and A/C!

[Cpv17]

00z Euro is very wet!

Yeah, and it even gives me some rain here S of I-10 lol

[Stratton23]

Just got done cutting the lawn, I can confirm that is is truely miserable outside and we arent even in july/ august yet

[Stratton23]

GFS/ Euro have a pretty favorable upper level pattern for potentially widespread rain, if not heavy rain for the whole state, CMC is good too, but starting to see the idea grow in the models of a slow moving, cut off upper level low that dives down from the Pacific NW and sets up shop over the desert SW, wave after wave of rain/ impulses of energy cross the state throughout the entire GFS/ Euro runs, stormy pattern is looking more likely

[Cpv17]

Just got done cutting the lawn, I can confirm that is is truely miserable outside and we arent even in july/ august yet

Feels wonderful to me. I just cut the lawn too and I have to do ours with a push mower.

[snownado]

Just got done cutting the lawn, I can confirm that is is truely miserable outside and we arent even in july/ august yet

Feels wonderful to me. I just cut the lawn too and I have to do ours with a push mower.

I agree. This weather is perfect!

[snownado]

Temps actually end up few degrees warmer than what was expected not long ago.

It was originally supposed to be in the 70s behind tge "cold" front, but managed to get to 81*F under full sun yesterday (not a cloud to be found).

92*F is the forecast high tomorrow, with possibly another shot at 90*F by mid/late-next week. The "cool" day is looking to be Tuesday with only mid/upper 70s.

BTW, the record high tomorrow is 93*F at DFW.

[wxman22]

Day 6 severe wx risk added. Expect other areas to be added for Saturday and Sunday as confidence increases per SPC.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An active severe weather pattern is expected late week into next
weekend.

...D5/Thursday...
Guidance has converged to a signal of severe-storm threat centered
on Thursday evening as a deep surface cyclone becomes established in
the KS vicinity, downstream of a longwave trough in the West. An
enriching low-level moisture plume will be advected nearly due north
from the western Gulf towards the Lower MO Valley. A stout EML
should limit convective development along much of the dryline. But a
strengthening low-level jet should support thunderstorm development
to the northeast of the surface low amid strong deep-layer shear.

...D6/Friday...
A rather broad swath of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies appears likely
to become established from the southern High Plains to the Great
Lakes, downstream of a broad trough in the Southwest and a separate
northern-stream wave around northern ON. While the deep cyclone over
the KS vicinity will weaken, it should track towards the central
Great Lakes in response to the northern wave. Along its trailing
cold front, extensive thunderstorm development is anticipated Friday
afternoon/evening. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level flow
regime, a broad corridor of severe threat is warranted.

...D7-8/Saturday-Sunday...
Predictability for a 15 percent highlight wanes somewhat next
weekend, but areas will probably be needed in later outlooks.
Saturday may consist of confined, bimodal threat areas across the
Lower Mid-Atlantic States and southern High/Great Plains. For the
former, the degree of instability and position of a southeast-moving
cold front on the periphery of a fast zonal flow regime are the main
uncertainty drivers. For the latter, timing of the pivot and
eastward ejection of the Lower CO Valley shortwave impulse into the
south-central states will be critical. Based on latest guidance, it
appears Sunday could have a broader corridor of severe potential.

[wxman22]

The conservative NBM model has a nice signal for rain in North Texas and Oklahoma. The EPS look nice also. It's starting to look like there will be opportunities for severe weather Friday-Sunday. I am watching next Easter Sunday closely. It's far out but models are showing a pretty robust setup that day. Something to watch as we get closer in range.

[Stratton23]

Dont like the look of that at all, that needs to shift south by 300-400 miles

[TomballEd]

Dont like the look of that at all, that needs to shift south by 300-400 miles

I suspect it doesn't come S and except for the "lucky" few were a random supercell can bust the cap and drop heavy rain and probably giant hail, I-10 and S will be skunked. Best chance for a random super cell will be across the Rio Grande from the Mexican mountains. That is a place tornado chasers would be if the roads were better and that country safer. Not across the river, off the Mexican mountains.

[Cpv17]

Dont like the look of that at all, that needs to shift south by 300-400 miles

I suspect it doesn't come S and except for the "lucky" few were a random supercell can bust the cap and drop heavy rain and probably giant hail, I-10 and S will be skunked. Best chance for a random super cell will be across the Rio Grande from the Mexican mountains. That is a place tornado chasers would be if the roads were better and that country safer. Not across the river, off the Mexican mountains.

I agree. It looks like most of southeast TX won’t see much. Maybe around Huntsville to College Station and points N of there.

[Ntxw]

It's climo, happens every year. Starts well south early spring and slowly migrates northward with the warming gradient till eventually it gets into the northern plains in July/August. Chase season in Oklahoma soon.

[Stratton23]

thats for the first system, and im more so talking about rain in general, not severe weather as that definitely looks to be well north of se texas, the Euro and GFS have a stalled frontal boundary setting up shop in central texas just after easter, of course thats a ways out, but if that happens, the rest of the state will be in a good position for widespread rains

[snownado]

It's climo, happens every year. Starts well south early spring and slowly migrates northward with the warming gradient till eventually it gets into the northern plains in July/August. Chase season in Oklahoma soon.

Will say this though.

I wouldn't rule out an eventual SE adjustment (that's outflow driven) of the heavy rain / severe weather activity from current model progs with the upcoming pattern, not too dissimilar from what we saw 2 weeks ago.