SPAC: TAM - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

98P INVEST 250413 0600 10.6S 170.2E SHEM 20 1005

[Subtrop]

30P THIRTY 250414 0600 15.1S 168.4E SHEM 35 999

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.2S
168.3E AT 140600UTC.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC WITHIN THE CONVERGENT FLOW. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. TD11F
CURRENTLY LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG
SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. THE SUPPOSED LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS TO THE EAST. SST
IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

TD11F LIES ON THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, TD11F IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEFORE MAKING A SOUTHEAST TURN WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICK UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[cycloneye]

Is organizing.

[Subtrop]

GALE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 150706 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 170.5
EAST AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 170.5E at 150600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS BY
160600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.2S 171.4E AT 151800 UTC
AND NEAR 29.6S 170.3E AT 160600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 006.