Texas Spring 2025

[snownado]

Temps actually end up few degrees warmer than what was expected not long ago.

It was originally supposed to be in the 70s behind tge "cold" front, but managed to get to 81*F under full sun yesterday (not a cloud to be found).

92*F is the forecast high tomorrow, with possibly another shot at 90*F by mid/late-next week. The "cool" day is looking to be Tuesday with only mid/upper 70s.

BTW, the record high tomorrow is 93*F at DFW.

And the record was tied with an intra-hour high...

[Brent]

Is it fall yet

[gpsnowman]

Is it fall yet

Everyday is a step closer to October.

[TomballEd]

The conservative NBM model has a nice signal for rain in North Texas and Oklahoma. The EPS look nice also. It's starting to look like there will be opportunities for severe weather Friday-Sunday. I am watching next Easter Sunday closely. It's far out but models are showing a pretty robust setup that day. Something to watch as we get closer in range.

https://i.ibb.co/BHrr0Ppk/qpf-acc-imp-us-sc.png

https://i.ibb.co/JR0MsCTc/qpf-acc-mean-imp-us-sc.png

If I'm not mistaken, NBM is a composite model of the various global models and their ensembles.

[wxman22]

(Today's NBM) A very good signal for heavy rainfall showing up.Especially since this is a blend.

[Iceresistance]

Good lord WPC


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/bps2P.png

[Stratton23]

All those models need to shift south by 300-500 miles, id prefer not to get donut holed lol

[South Texas Storms]

The first in a series of disturbances should mainly impact north TX this weekend. Rain chances are then forecast to expand southward next week.

[Edwards Limestone]

Same as every year now, NTX and OK get their seasonal rainfall while we get 1-2 minor events down south and stay in perpetual drought (with the exception of the anomalous RGV rain bomb earlier this season).

Frustrating for us, but not surprising.

[snownado]

DFW overachieved by a few degrees with a high of 88*F today.

[TomballEd]

I don't have a way to link images from the school (they block imgur, Giphy and Discord) but I'm finally feeling a little better, all three major ensembles show greater than 1 inch of rain down to the I-10 corridor, and some spots may get 2 inches or more. 4 inches a month average seems a good number to prevent fires and keep lawn watering to a beginning, or 2 inches every two weeks would work.

Much more rain than that Oklahoma and North Texas but it looks spread out enough it probably doesn't flood outside of localized areas that see heavier cells or training.

3 days of 15% severe probs for parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

[txtwister78]

Same as every year now, NTX and OK get their seasonal rainfall while we get 1-2 minor events down south and stay in perpetual drought (with the exception of the anomalous RGV rain bomb earlier this season).

Frustrating for us, but not surprising.

Got to give this a little more time to play out before throwing in the towel. Models have already shifted a little SE for the weekend and continue to look a bit more promising the following week. I think we're in better shape with this upcoming pattern shift in general than you might think.

Too early to pinpoint specifics obviously but at least we've got something to track here having gone the last 10 days or so without anything.

[South Texas Storms]

Same as every year now, NTX and OK get their seasonal rainfall while we get 1-2 minor events down south and stay in perpetual drought (with the exception of the anomalous RGV rain bomb earlier this season).

Frustrating for us, but not surprising.

Got to give this a little more time to play out before throwing in the towel. Models have already shifted a little SE for the weekend and continue to look a bit more promising the following week. I think we're in better shape with this upcoming pattern shift in general than you might think.

Too early to pinpoint specifics obviously but at least we've got something to track here having gone the last 10 days or so without anything.

Yep I continue to be optimistic that we could possibly see a prolonged wet weather pattern beginning this weekend. There are signs in the latest longer range models that unsettled conditions could potentially last a few weeks too, which would be very beneficial for a large part of the state. Just hope the storms don't get too rowdy at times.

[wxman22]

Yes, the pattern looks very good for widespread rains for the state going into May. It also looks like the start of MCS season, buckle up its about to get busy lol.

[Stratton23]

Looks like the GFS/ Euro show a frontal boundary associated with the easter day system, potentially stalling out over central and se texas all of next week, with daily rounds of storms, heavy rain could be a possibility for areas further south

[TomballEd]

GFS and ensembles show weekend front is progressive and areas S of I-10 is skunked. Hour 360 GFS shows rather sharp boundary between 2 inches of more of rain and less than half an inch of rain. GFS ensemble at 300 hours agrees. Op Canadian a little more optimistic for Tuesday but I think the same cap wins for STX.

[snownado]

GFS and ensembles show weekend front is progressive and areas S of I-10 is skunked. Hour 360 GFS shows rather sharp boundary between 2 inches of more of rain and less than half an inch of rain. GFS ensemble at 300 hours agrees. Op Canadian a little more optimistic for Tuesday but I think the same cap wins for STX.

It's also look less impressive in general for N. TX and OK, both from a QPF and severe weather standpoint.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS and ensembles show weekend front is progressive and areas S of I-10 is skunked. Hour 360 GFS shows rather sharp boundary between 2 inches of more of rain and less than half an inch of rain. GFS ensemble at 300 hours agrees. Op Canadian a little more optimistic for Tuesday but I think the same cap wins for STX.

It's also look less impressive in general for N. TX and OK, both from a QPF and severe weather standpoint.

Here we go again. Almost a joke at this point.

[snownado]

GFS and ensembles show weekend front is progressive and areas S of I-10 is skunked. Hour 360 GFS shows rather sharp boundary between 2 inches of more of rain and less than half an inch of rain. GFS ensemble at 300 hours agrees. Op Canadian a little more optimistic for Tuesday but I think the same cap wins for STX.

It's also look less impressive in general for N. TX and OK, both from a QPF and severe weather standpoint.

Here we go again. Almost a joke at this point.

It's still gonna rain, but it's increasingly looking like another pedestrian event.

[South Texas Storms]

Way too early to get discouraged. This could be a prolonged wet pattern with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible over the next few weeks.