Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's the livestream link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBJhV5A40X4

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1907795220374188228

[cycloneye]

Here is the PDF form that has 41 pages.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-04.pdf

[cycloneye]

Analog years includes 2017.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not a bad prediction imho by CSU. I feel like aside from the MDR temperatures that are not as extreme as some recent years, there doesn’t seem to be much really going against the possibility of another above average season.

Extratropical warming and interference have yet to be seen though, as we saw with 2022 and parts of last year.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Analog years includes 2017.

https://i.imgur.com/P5GRxsD.jpeg

Going by those analogs, it seems like the East Coast maybe more under the gun this year. 1996, 1999, and 2011 all featured notable east coast hurricanes (Fran, Floyd, and Irene), even 2017 nearly had it with Irma.

[Teban54]

Wow, that's a much more aggressive forecast from CSU than I was expecting.

To put things in context, 2024 -- a season with unanimous agreement of hyperactivity and much more positive indicators pre-season than this year -- had 18/11/5 and 161.6 ACE. CSU's forecast for 2025 is "just" 1 NS, 2 H, 1 MH and 6.6 ACE below 2024's verification.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Interesting thing to note:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1907802532732084692

[cycloneye]

TSR has 14/7/3 in the April forecast.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... il2025.pdf

Current sea surface temperature pattern: The current sea surface temperature pattern globally is similar
to 1971, 1999, 2001 and 2012. The ACE indices for these years ranged from 97 to 177 and the mean
ACE index is 129. For landfalling activity and impacts, 1999 and 2012 were notable, particularly the 2.

[cycloneye]

JB has his forecast and has between 15 -19 named storms.

https://www.cfact.org/2025/04/09/hurric ... st-update/

[ouragans]

Wearher Channel forecast is out

TS 19
H 11
MH 4



https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -twc-april

[chris_fit]

Wearher Channel forecast is out

TS 19
H 11
MH 4

https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/2025-twc-hur-season-outlook-april.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -twc-april

Wow, pretty bullish!

FWIW these were their predictions in 2024: 24 named storms were expected, of which 11 were forecasted to become hurricanes, and 6 were predicted to reach major. They were spot on hurricanes, off by 1 in majors, and a little over in named storms - overall, very good.

[chaser1]

Chris, the Weather Channel's forecast for 2025 IS pretty eye-popping?! At the same time, let's consider their 2024 Season forecast accuracy for what it was... or wasn't LOL. I wouldn't call their prediction of 24 named storms in '24 as "a little over" considering last season ended with 18 named storms. Regardless, i'm more interested in their rationale for such a bullish 2025 season forecast.

[IsabelaWeather]

Chris, the Weather Channel's forecast for 2025 IS pretty eye-popping?! At the same time, let's consider their 2024 Season forecast accuracy for what it was... or wasn't LOL. I wouldn't call their prediction of 24 named storms in '24 as "a little over" considering last season ended with 18 named storms. Regardless, i'm more interested in their rationale for such a bullish 2025 season forecast.

Not sure its fair to judge them from last year, most conditions looked amazingly favorable. No one could have seen the dead Aug/Sep

[TomballEd]

As far as I know, TWC is all low paid mets in cubicles, a fewer better looking mets on TV and one PhD who is now the expert for winter, severe and hurricanes, who did specialize in tropical weather. It is either Dr. Knabb's forecast or a 'peer review' of other estimates.

I hope TWC hasn't gone the AccuWeather route of big numbers and hype headlines. The one thing, noted as a significant negative for storm numbers by CSU, sub-tropical waters warmer, (relative, of course, the tropics are still warmer) than tropical waters. This could be much closer to a normal season, although later development because of reduced Atlantic MDR development actually increases Caribbean and North American impact chances for the number of storms that do develop.

[chaser1]

Chris, the Weather Channel's forecast for 2025 IS pretty eye-popping?! At the same time, let's consider their 2024 Season forecast accuracy for what it was... or wasn't LOL. I wouldn't call their prediction of 24 named storms in '24 as "a little over" considering last season ended with 18 named storms. Regardless, i'm more interested in their rationale for such a bullish 2025 season forecast.

Not sure its fair to judge them from last year, most conditions looked amazingly favorable. No one could have seen the dead Aug/Sep

Not a judgement nor a prosecution. In fact, I certainly would not have anticipated the weird year we had and consider my forecast for last year "one big whiff"
Having said that, The Weather Channel forecast for total named storms was not merely off by 2 or 3 and they are certainly welcome at my Easter dinner table to enjoy some crow with me!

[ncforecaster89]

Given the recent discussion of last year’s performance, I thought I’d post a listing of the respective seasonal forecasts issued through July 15,2024…with verification results shown, thereafter.

FORECASTER/TS/HU/MH/ACE

1) PENN U…………….33/XX/X (xxx)
2) CIMH…………………29/13/7 (xxx)
3) HurricaneCity…..29/11/4.5 (xxx)
4) WxBell……………..27.5/15/7 (220)
5) MissourU…………..26/11/5 (xxx)
6) TSR…………………..26/13/6 (240)
7, CSU…………………..25/12/6 (230)
8) CrownWS………….25/12/6 (225)
9) TWC………………….25/12/6 (xxx)
10) WxProbe………….24/12/6 (224)
11) WeatherTiger….24/11.5/6.5
12) ACCU-WX………..22.5/10/5.5 (200)
13) UKMET…………….22/12/4 (212)
14) SMN…………………21.5/10/4.5 (xxx)
15) NOAA……………..21/10.5/5.5 (xxx)
16) Arizona U……….21/11/5 (156)
17) Mét-France…….21/11/XX (xxx)
18) WxAmerica…….18/10/6 (xxx)
19) WESH……………..18/9/4 (xxx)
20) NCSU……………..17.5/11/3.5 (xxx)

2024 Actual………….18/11/5 (162)

Important Note: As some may already be aware, I always perform a postseason verification that uses the following methodology:

Named Storms: must be within 2
Hurricanes: must be within 1
Major Hurricanes: must be within 1

By these metrics, only 15% (3/20) of us verified with named storms. On the other hand, we did much better with hurricanes and MH projections at 78.9% and 77.8%, respectively. Only WxAmerica verified in all three categories.

[ncforecaster89]

2024 OVERALL RANKING:

1) WxAmerica………..3 (-2)

2) NCSU………………….2 (-2)
T3) WESH……………….2 (-3)
T3) Arizona U………..2 (-3)
5) NOAA………………….2 (-4)
6) SMN……………………2 (-5)
T7) UKMET…………….2 (-6)
T7) ACCU-WX………..2 (-6)
T9) WxProbe………….2 (-8)
T9) MissourU………….2 (-8)

T11) CrownWS……….2 (-9)
T11) TWC……………….2 (-9)
T11) CSU………………..2 (-9)
14) HurricaneCity….2 (-11.5)

15) WeatherTiger…..1 (-8)
16) TSR…………………..1 (-11)

17) CIMH………………..0 (-15)
18) WxBell………………0 (-15.5)

Ineligible for overall rankings due to missing predictions in one or more of the three categories:

Mét-France…………..1 (-3) #
PENN U…………………0 (-15) *
*only issued numbers for 1 category
# only issued numbers for 2 categories

In an attempt to produce the most objective seasonal ranking, I’ve chosen to first tally the combined number of verification successes in the three respective categories (0-3). From there, the ties were broken by the combined margin of errors from all three categories.

Only 1 participant actually met the verification criteria in all three categories. As a result, WxAmerica achieved the #1 ranking for this particular season…despite NCSU also only being off by a minimal 2 total digits, because they didn’t verify in the MH category.