Texas Spring 2025

[txtwister78]

It only rains in Oklahoma/AR these days. All we get in TX is humidity, wind, and drizzle.

Hard to get excited about pretty maps that never pan out.

Hang in there. It definitely has rained down here (and hailed) my friend. I can vouch for that one personally (lol). No question it hasn't been as widespread and beneficial to put a dent in this brutal drought we've been under for what seems like an eternity, so I read ya.

The good news is the pattern continues to look active going into next week so if we don't get as much this weekend then we still have a few opportunities next week and perhaps even beyond that but one system at a time. I'd rather have something to track though than nothing at all. Glass half full approach.

[ElectricStorm]

Finally a few storms in the TX panhandle but none of them are severe yet. Early evening setup for OK is cooked nothing will form with this much cloud cover. We should get some overnight action though, hopefully the midnight MCS will be interesting.

[ElectricStorm]

0z OUN sounding still with a stout cap and a ton of CINH...

[ElectricStorm]

New discussion for the overnight threat

Mesoscale Discussion 0472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas affected...Much of Oklahoma and parts of Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 190104Z - 190230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop this
evening with some surface based storm threat possible later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...An expansive cirrus shield has limited surface based
instability this afternoon/evening across much of the warm sector
which has limited the diurnal threat. However, north of this front,
some elevated convection has started to develop from the eastern
Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. This convection is
currently quite weak which is not surprising given the weak
instability and the capped environment farther southeast (00Z OUN
RAOB) where better instability does exist. Continued mid-level
cooling and 850mb moistening (associated with the strengthening
low-level jet) will lead to an increasingly favorable environment
for elevated convection this evening. Strong shear will support
supercells with a a primary hazard of large hail.

Later tonight, initially elevated convection across parts of
northwest Texas may eventually move into a continually moistening
boundary layer across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. These
storms may pose a greater threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado in addition to the large hail threat.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025

[wxman22]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
915 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
Western North Texas

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 915 PM
until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
through mid/late evening. Large hail and damaging winds can be
expected along with some tornado potential with storms near/south of
a boundary across the region.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 80 miles west southwest of Wichita
Falls TX to 70 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

[wxman22]

I’m not sure there will be any tornadic cells tonight, looks more like hailers. But I guess the SPC will rather be safe than sorry.

[gpsnowman]

Rain lovers rejoice, a line is moving in!! Hope it holds together.

[snownado]

Rain lovers rejoice, a line is moving in!! Hope it holds together.

Basically just a glorified gust front here. Not even any thunder/lightning.

[HockeyTx82]

Any chance the morning rain and the cloud cover throughout the day will limit our chances later in the DFW area?

[wxman22]

Enhanced Risk issued for Hail.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m in Abilene for Easter. Yay..

No garage at my wife’s family.

[TomballEd]

On the one hand, the roughly one inch of rain (dare I hope for 2 inches) that falls in the next 5 days is a good thing, on the other, it has been so dry a mere inch or two is a literal drop in the bucket. Image URL has a date stamp

[txtwister78]

Clearing out in west Texas so that's probably going to be where storm development is maximized initially. Already seeing a few storms trying to fire west of San Angelo. Models overall however might be a little too bullish the further east you get where cloud cover once again is locked in keeping a lid on things there until the front begins to move later in the evening and a line of storms develops and pushes east. How far east and south that line is able to get is another question as convective inhibition (capping) strengthens overnight.

NAM has been the most bullish keeping the line going just enough to bring general 1 inch rainfall totals across SA metro early tomorrow morning. HRRR looks promising also.

[txtwister78]

SPC seeing the same thing as mentioned above.

[snownado]

At least this time around. DFW's on the warm side of the front as it gets screwed.

That's the only positive thing I can say.

[South Texas Storms]

Clearing out in west Texas so that's probably going to be where storm development is maximized initially. Already seeing a few storms trying to fire west of San Angelo. Models overall however might be a little too bullish the further east you get where cloud cover once again is locked in keeping a lid on things there until the front begins to move later in the evening and a line of storms develops and pushes east. How far east and south that line is able to get is another question as convective inhibition (capping) strengthens overnight.

NAM has been the most bullish keeping the line going just enough to bring general 1 inch rainfall totals across SA metro early tomorrow morning. HRRR looks promising also.

Yeah I'm a little more optimistic about the line reaching as far southeast as SA early tomorrow morning. Would be great to see several rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next week.

[wxman22]

[DukeMu]

Really boring in B/CS. No sun, no heat, no lift. Weak streamer showers and a lot of it is verga.

Abilene to Wichita Falls is where the action is.

CAPE peaks tomorrow afternoon in the Houston area. B/CS is hopped over.

[wxman22]

Supercells have developed.

[txtwister78]

Really boring in B/CS. No sun, no heat, no lift. Weak streamer showers and a lot of it is verga.

Abilene to Wichita Falls is where the action is.

CAPE peaks tomorrow afternoon in the Houston area. B/CS is hopped over.

The action is west of San Angelo/southwest of Abilene at the moment. Any activity north of that area including the Wichita Falls/Abilene region is going to be elevated as the front has already made it into those areas dropping temps/dews reducing the severe weather risk in particular Torando threat. Still could see some pockets of smaller hail in Abilene with that cold air aloft.

San Angelo is probably the area that folks will want to watch within the next hour for a localized tornado risk along with very large hail as it remains in the warm air as storms approach from the west.