Texas Spring 2025

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like storm is cycling with a slight jog south reforming another circulation off an old outflow boundary from earlier. Could be seeing another tornado soon however a good sign for Lubbock though with this moving a bit more south than east.

No kidding. I love severe storms, but taking shelter in some cramped hotel shelter with high school kids is not my idea of a good time.

While in college in Kansas, we had to take shelter at a college dance in a space museum one time. That actually was kind of fun, but not this. Lol.

[snownado]

Sky cover was kind of wonky today between outflows/debris from nearby MCS and stubborn low clouds with the SE wind, but with enough sunny intervals, DFW did eventually eek out a late day intra-hour high of 80*F (technically several degrees below forecast).

[rwfromkansas]

Thankfully that storm is dying out basically in one spot just north of here. I will take it.

[txtwister78]

Looks like storm is cycling with a slight jog south reforming another circulation off an old outflow boundary from earlier. Could be seeing another tornado soon however a good sign for Lubbock though with this moving a bit more south than east.

No kidding. I love severe storms, but taking shelter in some cramped hotel shelter with high school kids is not my idea of a good time.

While in college in Kansas, we had to take shelter at a college dance in a space museum one time. That actually was kind of fun, but not this. Lol.

Wow...yeah that's not fun. Lol.

Been a crazy night just nw of there though. Huge flash flooding event with that supercell just sitting in one area for hours. Incredible. Thankfully this didn't happen over Lubbock.

[lukem]

GFS is joining the Euro on major rain in Texas over the next few weeks! 6z is showing insane rain amounts in west central Texas.

[wxman22]

Very busy up here this morning.

[Stratton23]

I definitely am becoming a little more concerned with flooding potential as we get closer to the start of may and beyond, models are starting to become more consistent in showing increasing heights over canada , se us and greenland, so a mega - NAO block, they are also starting to agree that a storm system could setup over the central us or even texas, and potentially stall out as it gets trapped underneath that big - NAO
block, i say this because that idea is starting to show up more consistently now, obviously the models differ on where the cut off low sets up, but it is pattern thats going to need to be watched very carefully in the coming days

[Edwards Limestone]

I definitely am becoming a little more concerned with flooding potential as we get closer to the start of may and beyond, models are starting to become more consistent in showing increasing heights over canada , se us and greenland, so a mega - NAO block, they are also starting to agree that a storm system could setup over the central us or even texas, and potentially stall out as it gets trapped underneath that big - NAO
block, i say this because that idea is starting to show up more consistently now, obviously the models differ on where the cut off low sets up, but it is pattern thats going to need to be watched very carefully in the coming days

Flooding in central TX is the only way the lakes will fill up. Won’t happen though- it’ll set up over NE TX I’m sure.

[Cpv17]

It still doesn’t look like much of anything for my neck of the woods.

[Brent]

Some places up here have had a foot of rain this month after record wildfires in March

[ElectricStorm]

I posted this in the severe weather thread, but this thread is typically more active so I figured I'd put it here as well in case anyone here would want to take a look, very interesting work.

If you've never heard of the OMEGA project lead by SPC forecaster Chris Broyles, take a look through this paper to get an idea of what could be the future of forecasting high end/High Risk tornado outbreak days:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf

In summary, one of the main things they have looked at is jet translation speed, with a speed of around 40kts or higher being considered favorable for a high risk level tornado outbreak. If you've noticed they've been mentioning jet translation speed at times this year, this is likely where they are getting that from. This would also explain why they didn't hesitate to upgrade to High risk on 4/2 despite models not looking super crazy the night before. 3/14 overnight outbreak, which easily verified as a high, and maybe 3/15 (not sure but probably) also featured a fast-moving jet streak, so no surprise that all three of those ended up being major outbreaks. I'd be interested in looking at past events and see what the jet translation speed for those were. I believe I saw somewhere that the May 6 High risk last year was around 30kts, which would make sense why that event underperformed.

As of now, Monday appears likely to meet the threshold for a high end tornado outbreak across the Day 3 Moderate area, so that's probably why they are aggressive with this forecast despite some lingering uncertainties/inconsistencies on models. Now of course that doesn't mean that we'll for sure see a High risk upgrade, but it's certainly possible.

[snownado]

I posted this in the severe weather thread, but this thread is typically more active so I figured I'd put it here as well in case anyone here would want to take a look, very interesting work.

If you've never heard of the OMEGA project lead by SPC forecaster Chris Broyles, take a look through this paper to get an idea of what could be the future of forecasting high end/High Risk tornado outbreak days:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf

In summary, one of the main things they have looked at is jet translation speed, with a speed of around 40kts or higher being considered favorable for a high risk level tornado outbreak. If you've noticed they've been mentioning jet translation speed at times this year, this is likely where they are getting that from. This would also explain why they didn't hesitate to upgrade to High risk on 4/2 despite models not looking super crazy the night before. 3/14 overnight outbreak, which easily verified as a high, and maybe 3/15 (not sure but probably) also featured a fast-moving jet streak, so no surprise that all three of those ended up being major outbreaks. I'd be interested in looking at past events and see what the jet translation speed for those were. I believe I saw somewhere that the May 6 High risk last year was around 30kts, which would make sense why that event underperformed.

As of now, Monday appears likely to meet the threshold for a high end tornado outbreak across the Day 3 Moderate area, so that's probably why they are aggressive with this forecast despite some lingering uncertainties/inconsistencies on models. Now of course that doesn't mean that we'll for sure see a High risk upgrade, but it's certainly possible.

Broyles has a "reputation" in the weather enthuasiast community (he's basically a meme at this point with his often wacky/overzealous outlooks), but an interesting project none the less.

Thanks for sharing!

[TomballEd]

I posted this in the severe weather thread, but this thread is typically more active so I figured I'd put it here as well in case anyone here would want to take a look, very interesting work.

If you've never heard of the OMEGA project lead by SPC forecaster Chris Broyles, take a look through this paper to get an idea of what could be the future of forecasting high end/High Risk tornado outbreak days:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf

In summary, one of the main things they have looked at is jet translation speed, with a speed of around 40kts or higher being considered favorable for a high risk level tornado outbreak. If you've noticed they've been mentioning jet translation speed at times this year, this is likely where they are getting that from. This would also explain why they didn't hesitate to upgrade to High risk on 4/2 despite models not looking super crazy the night before. 3/14 overnight outbreak, which easily verified as a high, and maybe 3/15 (not sure but probably) also featured a fast-moving jet streak, so no surprise that all three of those ended up being major outbreaks. I'd be interested in looking at past events and see what the jet translation speed for those were. I believe I saw somewhere that the May 6 High risk last year was around 30kts, which would make sense why that event underperformed.

As of now, Monday appears likely to meet the threshold for a high end tornado outbreak across the Day 3 Moderate area, so that's probably why they are aggressive with this forecast despite some lingering uncertainties/inconsistencies on models. Now of course that doesn't mean that we'll for sure see a High risk upgrade, but it's certainly possible.

The Convective Chronicles guy was talking about jet translation speed and the Easter Sunday tornado outbreak in the Midwest.

[TomballEd]

It still doesn’t look like much of anything for my neck of the woods.

GFS, Euro and CMC ensembles all have the heaviest rain just N of the I-10 corridor. 6Z GFS drops a nice rain bomb a week from Wednesday on my house, but it would miss El Campo verbatim. It is the 6Z GFS at 10 days, results are not guaranteed. We made it through last weeks storms with just an inch of rain. I'll believe in serious rains the first week of May starting about May 1st, but even then I'll curb my enthusiasm.

[wxman22]

Several of the 12Z CAMS break out supercells in West Central Texas and Northwest Texas tomorrow evening. The SPC also mentioned that a upgrade in risk may be needed if confidence increases.

A secondary area of higher severe weather probabilities
may exist from portions of West Texas into southwest Oklahoma where
the nocturnally strengthening low-level jet could support scattered
supercell development Monday evening. However, weak height rises
cast some doubt on storm coverage during the evening, precluding
higher probabilities at this time.

[Stratton23]

Euro/ GFS both have a setup for potentially a significant flooding event across the state in early may

[txtwister78]

I've often said when we're under these long droughts we typically bust out with a flooding event of some sort (whether it be pattern driven or of tropical origin).

While I'm not suggesting we're about to cash in to a point where the drought is completely erased (that would take some doing and probably too much of a good thing), I do continue to feel good about the opportunities on the table that lie ahead next week and perhaps beyond. Lots to watch over the coming days.

[Cpv17]

I've often said when we're under these long droughts we typically bust out with a flooding event of some sort (whether it be pattern driven or of tropical origin).

While I'm not suggesting we're about to cash in to a point where the drought is completely erased (that would take some doing and probably too much of a good thing), I do continue to feel good about the opportunities on the table that lie ahead next week and perhaps beyond. Lots to watch over the coming days.

That’s promising coming from a very conservative person like yourself.

[wxman22]

The WPC has just issued a Moderate Risk Tuesday for flooding here. Looks like another "classic" I-44 corridor frontal boundary stall setup. Like the setup that produced the heavy rain on the 19th.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 29 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 30 2025

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

...20Z Update...

In coordination with OUN/Norman, OK forecast office, a Moderate
Risk upgrade was introduced with this update.

Another potential significant rainfall event will be taking shape
across western portions of the TX-OK Red River Valley northeast
into the Ozarks and Lower MO River Valley. This as the upper trough
west/ridge east amplify and in-turn exhibit slower W-E
progression. This will allow for a more prolonged period of
favorable upper level forcing (coupled southern and northern stream
jet streaks) along a surface front that will become quasi-
stationary across OK- southeast KS into central MO. Robust
synoptic-scale forcing, favorable thermodynamic profiles (Mixed
Layer CAPEs 1000-2000 J/Kg and TPWs 1.5-1.75") and the the enhanced
risk of repetitive convection along the slow moving/stalled
frontal boundary will likely lead to impressive 24 hr rainfall
totals within the Slight Risk area (3-5+ inches, with higher
localized totals per the higher-resolution GEM-Region and RRFS
runs). Tuesday night in particular may bring a more enhanced flash
flood threat, as the LLJ veers and becomes nearly parallel (and of
similar magnitude of) the mean 850-300 mb flow, thereby leading to
weaker forward-propagating Corfidi Vectors and allowing for a
greater risk of cell training.

Much of the Moderate Risk area picked up several inches of heavy
rainfall from a slow-moving and persistent MCS that tracked across
southwestern Oklahoma and north Texas yesterday. This has greatly
diminished FFGs and swelled local rivers, streams, and creeks.
While both today and most of tomorrow will be dry, (with severe
thunderstorm potential tomorrow), it appears unlikely that there
will be enough recovery to return soil conditions to normal by the
time Tuesday's heavy rainfall event gets going. There are therefore
heightened concerns for flash flooding. The Moderate Risk
highlights the hardest hit areas expected to pick up heavy rain
from both yesterday and expected again on Tuesday. Additional
expansions may be needed if forecast rainfall increases further
south and west in areas that were also hard-hit Wednesday, as well
as towards the Northeast from Tuesday's rainfall alone, as the
highest rainfall amounts for the day may be closer to the
Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas corners region. As is common for
forecast areas of thunderstorms, shifts in the axis of heaviest
rainfall are common and therefore adjustments to the outlook areas
may be needed in the coming days.

[txtwister78]

I've often said when we're under these long droughts we typically bust out with a flooding event of some sort (whether it be pattern driven or of tropical origin).

While I'm not suggesting we're about to cash in to a point where the drought is completely erased (that would take some doing and probably too much of a good thing), I do continue to feel good about the opportunities on the table that lie ahead next week and perhaps beyond. Lots to watch over the coming days.

That’s promising coming from a very conservative person like yourself.

I don't know about that characterization, but I'll take the compliment nonetheless. Lol.

Unsettled pattern. The potential for a stalled out boundary nearby late next week with an active storm track out west that should continue as we head into May within peak climatology range for rainfall across our region. Yeah I'll
take that. Heck those are all promising signals that one would look for if you're rooting for some beneficial rainfall across the drought plagued areas of our state in particular.

Now keep in mind I'm talking about rain here in SC TX not snow so context matters my friend.