2025 Severe Weather

[cycloneye]

543 tornadoes have occured so far in 2025 and that is above average. First post graphics.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1913741040139350247

[cycloneye]

A new #tornado watch is in effect from the Ark-La-Tex north to central Missouri.

 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1914003359021068695

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
There have been 571 tornadoes reported across the United States so far this year, about 50 percent more than normal.

Top tornado counts: 95, Mississippi; 59, Missouri; 58, Illinois; 49, Alabama; 43, Indiana; 35, Arkansas; 35, Texas; 31, Kentucky; 25, Tennessee and 22, Georgia.


 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1914315685682946484

[cycloneye]

Heads up in Western Texas.

[cycloneye]

[ElectricStorm]

Day 3 moderate! The second one of 2025 after not having one since 2022. March 15 ended up being a high risk, we'll see if this one will be as well

[cycloneye]

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the
Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong
to intense tornadoes are likely.

...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense
tornadoes is possible on Monday...

...Midwest into the Upper Midwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a
surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the
northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow
will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into
parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will
support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm
sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western
Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet
streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become
more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across
Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear,
embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening
low-level shear.

Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within
a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens
through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward,
creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong
instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing
during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping
across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will
be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing
dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly
favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of
strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will
likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front
advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes
will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the
overnight hours.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist
along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West
Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak
height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal
inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm
development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase
during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat
for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes

[TomballEd]

How many Day 3 Moderates have their been?

[ElectricStorm]

If you've never heard of the OMEGA project lead by SPC forecaster Chris Broyles, take a look through this paper to get an idea of what could be the future of forecasting high end/High Risk tornado outbreak days:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf

In summary, one of the main things they have looked at is jet translation speed, with a speed of around 40kts or higher being considered favorable for a high risk level tornado outbreak. If you've noticed they've been mentioning jet translation speed at times this year, this is likely where they are getting that from. This would also explain why they didn't hesitate to upgrade to High risk on 4/2 despite models not looking super crazy the night before. 3/14 overnight outbreak, which easily verified as a high, and maybe 3/15 (not sure but probably) also featured a fast-moving jet streak, so no surprise that all three of those ended up being major outbreaks. I'd be interested in looking at past events and see what the jet translation speed for those were. I believe I saw somewhere that the May 6 High risk last year was around 30kts, which would make sense why that event underperformed.

As of now, Monday appears likely to meet the threshold for a high end tornado outbreak across the Day 3 Moderate area, so that's probably why they are aggressive with this forecast despite some lingering uncertainties/inconsistencies on models. Now of course that doesn't mean that we'll for sure see a High risk upgrade, but it's certainly possible.

[wxman22]

How many Day 3 Moderates have their been?

Apparently the SPC only started issuing specifically Day 3 Moderate Risk since 2005.A total of 19 have happened.

[ElectricStorm]

 https://twitter.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/1916645404709421365

[cycloneye]

WOW.

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1916664434749018502

[cycloneye]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough, with several
embedded vorticity maxima, will move east-northeast through the day
across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. The southwest portion of
the large-scale trough and an embedded midlevel cyclone will remain
in place near the Four Corners through most of the period. A strong
midlevel jet (70+ kt at 500 mb) will move from the central Plains
toward the upper Midwest/Great Lakes later today into this evening.
The primary surface cyclone will move from the eastern Dakotas
toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through
parts of the Great Plains and eventually the Upper Midwest. By late
afternoon, a dryline will extend from near the MN/IA border
southwestward into the southern High Plains.

...Upper Midwest...
A regional severe weather outbreak still appears possible across the
Upper Midwest, with a threat of strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and swaths of damaging winds. No major changes have been made to the
Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas.

Extensive elevated convection and a possible MCS will likely be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of ND/MN,
and may tend to redevelop through the day. This could slow the
northward advance of the warm front to some extent, but 60s F
dewpoints are expected reach at least central MN into northern WI by
mid/late afternoon.

South of the warm front and east of the dryline, the environment is
expected to become increasingly volatile through the afternoon, with
strong instability (MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg) and deep-layer
shear, and a persistently intense low-level jet that will maintain
very favorable low-level shear/SRH. This environment will be
conditionally favorable for long-track supercells with
strong/intense tornado potential.

Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of diurnal convection
across the warm sector. Guidance generally suggests that
surface-based storms will develop near the surface low and along the
prefrontal trough/dryline across southern MN, which could evolve
quickly into a cluster or linear mode, though the environment would
still support embedded supercell potential with all severe hazards
possible. If development in this area is able to remain
semi-discrete, then a couple long-track tornadic supercells could
occur.

Farther south into IA, stronger heating/mixing is expected near the
dryline, though large-scale ascent and low-level convergence may be
somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north. While guidance
varies regarding the potential for development across IA during the
afternoon, any supercell that can initiate and be sustained could
become long-tracked within the expanding and very favorable warm
sector, posing a threat for strong to intense tornadoes and very
large hail.

As the surface low and related boundaries move eastward, organized
convection may develop in place and/or spread into parts of WI, with
a threat of all severe hazards and some strong-tornado potential.

Farther west, a couple of supercells may develop in the region
between the prefrontal trough/dryline and cold front, and pose a
threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts as they move across
northeast NE/southeast SD into parts of MN/IA.

...Parts of KS/MO into the Southern Plains...
While large-scale ascent will be comparatively weaker from KS/MO
into the southern Plains, isolated to widely scattered storm
development will be possible within a weakly capped environment.
Instability and deep-layer shear will both be moderate to strong by
late afternoon into the evening, and a few supercells may develop
near the dryline. Large to very large hail and locally damaging
winds will likely be the initial primary hazard, but increasing
low-level SRH by early evening will result in some tornado threat as
well. Additional strong to locally severe storm development will be
possible overnight near the advancing cold front, aided by a
continued nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet.

..Dean/Weinman.. 04/28/2025

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/LoganGilesWx/status/1916867260515287432

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1916900639755669990

[ElectricStorm]

Northern target is on pace to be one of the biggest busts I've seen in quite some time. Was wondering if the fast jet translation speed would make up for the very poor trough shape and other issues, and the answer appears to be a firm no. Still not done yet though with a couple cells going up in C IA

Prime example of why I'm really not a fan of Day 3 moderates, even if most of them end up going big

[wxman22]

Yep, looks like the moderate risk is a bust.

[WaveBreaking]

Decent MCS over the Midwest this morning