2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1914689469447389309

[cycloneye]

The WAM looks already fairly active.

[LarryWx]

The OISST data shows the MDR cooling on a steady pace in the last few weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/S0Dmno9.png

https://i.imgur.com/ikfbPDQ.png

Thanks, Luis. And now just 8 days later, the MDR OISST anomaly has fallen even further from your cyclonicwx map’s +0.25C down to near 0! A year ago on this date it was way up at +1.5C. So, the MDR OISST has cooled a whopping 1.5C (2.7F) during the last year!

Does anyone know why the MDR (using definition that includes Caribbean) has cooled so much the past year? A 2.7F cooling of that large a portion of the ocean is pretty amazing to see. The MDR including the Caribbean is ~3 million sq miles or 7% of the entire Atlantic Ocean. The controversial Joe Bastardi thinks it’s due to a >50% drop in underwater seismic activity in the “mid-ocean spreading zones” of the globe because the area of major cooling surrounds a portion of the Atlantic part of that zone. But there’s a lot of skepticism about that theory, which JB credits to Dr. Arthur Viterito.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The OISST data shows the MDR cooling on a steady pace in the last few weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/S0Dmno9.png

https://i.imgur.com/ikfbPDQ.png

Thanks, Luis. And now just 8 days later, the MDR OISST anomaly has fallen even further from your cyclonicwx map’s +0.25C down to near 0! A year ago on this date it was way up at +1.5C. So, the MDR OISST has cooled a whopping 1.5C (2.7F) during the last year!

Does anyone know why the MDR (using definition that includes Caribbean) has cooled so much the past year? A 2.7F cooling of that large a portion of the ocean is pretty amazing to see. The MDR including the Caribbean is ~3 million sq miles or 7% of the entire Atlantic Ocean. The controversial Joe Bastardi thinks it’s due to a >50% drop in underwater seismic activity in the “mid-ocean spreading zones” of the globe because the area of major cooling surrounds a portion of the Atlantic part of that zone.

Pretty sure it's primarily a case of the NAO being in a different phase throughout this winter and early spring compared to this time last year. It's been positive for the most part so far this year as opposed to last year where it was predominantly negative, and the resulting weak trades helped build up the record warmth. With that being said, as others have noted, it appears we're due for a warmup as models are showing a slackening of trades headed into May, so we'll see how that pans out. Also have to watch for in-season warming over the summer thanks to the WAM, which seems to be a guarantee over the span of this high-amplitude phase we've been in over the past decade or so (remember how drastically the MDR warmed by peak season of 2018?)

[LarryWx]

The OISST data shows the MDR cooling on a steady pace in the last few weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/S0Dmno9.png

https://i.imgur.com/ikfbPDQ.png

Thanks, Luis. And now just 8 days later, the MDR OISST anomaly has fallen even further from your cyclonicwx map’s +0.25C down to near 0! A year ago on this date it was way up at +1.5C. So, the MDR OISST has cooled a whopping 1.5C (2.7F) during the last year!

Does anyone know why the MDR (using definition that includes Caribbean) has cooled so much the past year? A 2.7F cooling of that large a portion of the ocean is pretty amazing to see. The MDR including the Caribbean is ~3 million sq miles or 7% of the entire Atlantic Ocean. The controversial Joe Bastardi thinks it’s due to a >50% drop in underwater seismic activity in the “mid-ocean spreading zones” of the globe because the area of major cooling surrounds a portion of the Atlantic part of that zone.

Pretty sure it's primarily a case of the NAO being in a different phase throughout this winter and early spring compared to this time last year. It's been positive for the most part so far this year as opposed to last year where it was predominantly negative, and the resulting weak trades helped build up the record warmth. With that being said, as others have noted, it appears we're due for a warmup as models are showing a slackening of trades headed into May, so we'll see how that pans out. Also have to watch for in-season warming over the summer thanks to the WAM, which seems to be a guarantee over the span of this high-amplitude phase we've been in over the past decade or so (remember how drastically the MDR warmed by peak season of 2018?)

Thanks, Dorky. I’ll be following MDR SST anomalies very closely. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it shortly warms back up to an extent after such a major cooling in a relatively short period (1.5 F just last 90 days) as sort of a dead-cat bounce. But it remains to be seen whether or not it warms back up a large portion of the 2.7 F cooling of the last 12 months. With last year at/near a record, I wouldn’t bet on it at least as of now. That’s probably a primary reason the April 2025 Euro run is forecasting a significantly less active season than the April 2024 run had. The 2025 Euro has only a near normal 7.2 Hs vs it showing 10.9 Hs last year at this time for 2024. The 7.2 could very well be a bit underdone, but my point is that the model is seeing less favorable factors for 2025 vs 2024.

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
Check out how much cooler the Atlantic is this year compared to last year!

The Main Development Region for hurricanes is about 2 degrees cooler overall.

This will be an important, limiting factor during hurricane season, which is just weeks away.

Last year ➡️ this year

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1916507377152741404

[cycloneye]

JB sees a bearish season.

@BigJoeBastardi
Hurricane season ACE index wise could turn out to be normal to below year. Look for slower moving, erratic storms further north rather than the MDR type situation we had last year ( look at tracks thru Caribbean) Atlantic MDR is coldest in many years, more like low ACE years, opposite high ace

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1917208900090085553

[WeatherBoy2000]

JB sees a bearish season.

@BigJoeBastardi
Hurricane season ACE index wise could turn out to be normal to below year. Look for slower moving, erratic storms further north rather than the MDR type situation we had last year ( look at tracks thru Caribbean) Atlantic MDR is coldest in many years, more like low ACE years, opposite high ace

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1917208900090085553

I'll believe it when I see it. Ever since 2016, the Atlantic has not produced a below average season. 2018 had a full on -amo configuration paired with a building el nino going into the summer, neither is the case this year.

[LarryWx]

JB sees a bearish season.

@BigJoeBastardi
Hurricane season ACE index wise could turn out to be normal to below year. Look for slower moving, erratic storms further north rather than the MDR type situation we had last year ( look at tracks thru Caribbean) Atlantic MDR is coldest in many years, more like low ACE years, opposite high ace

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1917208900090085553

I'll believe it when I see it. Ever since 2016, the Atlantic has not produced a below average season. 2018 had a full on -amo configuration paired with a building el nino going into the summer, neither is the case this year.

I’m a bit confused. Is he hedging his own 4/7/2025 forecast of ACE? On that day he forecasted ACE of 120-150! That’s above the 1991-2020 average of 110. I doubt he’s lowering his ACE forecast from that. I haven’t seen an official update. I think he’s just hedging on ACE.

[mixedDanilo.E]

JB sees a bearish season.

@BigJoeBastardi
Hurricane season ACE index wise could turn out to be normal to below year. Look for slower moving, erratic storms further north rather than the MDR type situation we had last year ( look at tracks thru Caribbean) Atlantic MDR is coldest in many years, more like low ACE years, opposite high ace

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1917208900090085553

I'll believe it when I see it. Ever since 2016, the Atlantic has not produced a below average season. 2018 had a full on -amo configuration paired with a building el nino going into the summer, neither is the case this year.

I’m a bit confused. Is he hedging his own 4/7/2025 forecast of ACE? On that day he forecasted ACE of 120-150! That’s above the 1991-2020 average of 110. I doubt he’s lowering his ACE forecast from that. I haven’t seen an official update. I think he’s just hedging on ACE.

I thought the 1991-2020 average was 120? And I think Joe B might be a little pessimistic on this year. The MDR is probably gonna warm up considerably over the next few months and probably starting within the next few weeks. 2018 had above normal activity with a developing (although weak) el nino and near record cold SST anomalies in the MDR.

[toad strangler]

Last year, the 150th post in the indicators thread was made on January 28th. This year #150 was made today on April 29th. WOW!
That’s an indicator if I ever saw one!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Last year, the 150th post in the indicators thread was made on January 28th. This year #150 was made today on April 29th. WOW!
That’s an indicator if I ever saw one!

The consequences of having a record warm MDR vs. a lukewarm one (for the record there's near unanimous agreement amongst models that the NAO will go negative for the first half of May plus the WAM eventually kicking in which should help warm things up, but I highly doubt it'll be as significant as last year)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

ECMWF has a product which displays the modeled SST(A)s in the medium range. This is what it has by mid-May, quite a different (and frankly more favorable) Atlantic configuration compared to what we have right now. We'll see if this verifies in a few weeks.

[LarryWx]

I'll believe it when I see it. Ever since 2016, the Atlantic has not produced a below average season. 2018 had a full on -amo configuration paired with a building el nino going into the summer, neither is the case this year.

I’m a bit confused. Is he hedging his own 4/7/2025 forecast of ACE? On that day he forecasted ACE of 120-150! That’s above the 1991-2020 average of 110. I doubt he’s lowering his ACE forecast from that. I haven’t seen an official update. I think he’s just hedging on ACE.

I thought the 1991-2020 average was 120? And I think Joe B might be a little pessimistic on this year. The MDR is probably gonna warm up considerably over the next few months and probably starting within the next few weeks. 2018 had above normal activity with a developing (although weak) el nino and near record cold SST anomalies in the MDR.

Thanks for the correction. I was going on memory and thought it was 110. I just calculated the 1991-2020 average ACE to be 122. So, JB’s 120-150 is from NN to AN.

[cycloneye]

Last year, the 150th post in the indicators thread was made on January 28th. This year #150 was made today on April 29th. WOW!
That’s an indicator if I ever saw one!

Not only this thread but all the threads in the talking tropics forum are in very slow syndrome mode in activity and that includes the S2K poll. As you said, is the best indicator about what to expect in the upcomming 2025 season.

[cycloneye]

Last year, the 150th post in the indicators thread was made on January 28th. This year #150 was made today on April 29th. WOW!
That’s an indicator if I ever saw one!

Not only this thread but all the threads in the talking tropics forum are in very slow syndrome mode in activity and that includes the S2K poll. As you said, is the best indicator about what to expect in the upcomming 2025 season. This 2025 indicators thread is way behind the 2024 pace as on april 30th, it was at page 39 but here we are only at page 8.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF has a product which displays the modeled SST(A)s in the medium range. This is what it has by mid-May, quite a different (and frankly more favorable) Atlantic configuration compared to what we have right now. We'll see if this verifies in a few weeks.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20250430-0110/0c/ps2png-worker-commands-79d786cf55-rxs8f-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-vi2t0r01.png
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20250430-0110/26/ps2png-worker-commands-79d786cf55-k4z5f-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-np7_fl09.png

Link?

[WeatherBoy2000]

ECMWF has a product which displays the modeled SST(A)s in the medium range. This is what it has by mid-May, quite a different (and frankly more favorable) Atlantic configuration compared to what we have right now. We'll see if this verifies in a few weeks.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20250430-0110/0c/ps2png-worker-commands-79d786cf55-rxs8f-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-vi2t0r01.png
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20250430-0110/26/ps2png-worker-commands-79d786cf55-k4z5f-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-np7_fl09.png

Link?

Here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/w_sst?area=Global&base_time=202504300000&level=sst%20anomaly&valid_time=202504300000

[cycloneye]

The May CanSIPS is up. This is for ASO. Definitly, not the same look as the 2024 run on both precipitation and the sst anomalys.