2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

Long range 12z Euro has this.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

A weak signal on the EPS has actually appeared in the long range by the second week of May in the SW Caribbean. AFAIK this model doesn't have the biases the G(E)FS has in this region, hence why it has piqued my interest. Wondering if this is from an early CAG? Granted climo says the EPAC would be favored, and I am inclined to believe that would be the case here if any TCG actually manifests (even though it is the offseason over there as well).

[chaser1]

Interesting and not at all unrealistic considering that the end of that forecast cycle goes out to May 11, only 4 days prior to the start of the EPAC's Hurricane Season. A fair number of ensemble members focusing on possible development in the S.W. Caribbean suggests to me a northward tilt/extension of the ITCZ at that time. Also interesting is the consensus motion toward the northeast rather then toward the west. This early, that's likely a result of the low latitude easterly trades having yet to establish themselves. At the same time though, I do always look for hints suggesting low level Easterly surge strength as well as the orientation and steering of the mid Atlantic heights that are beginning to evolve.

[StPeteMike]

Surprise no one has mentioned the 18z GFS with the moderate TS into Biloxi MS in 2 weeks. Obviously, it’s 2 weeks out and should be taken with a grain of salt, but we need some entertainment, right?!?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

A weak signal on the EPS has actually appeared in the long range by the second week of May in the SW Caribbean. AFAIK this model doesn't have the biases the G(E)FS has in this region, hence why it has piqued my interest. Wondering if this is from an early CAG? Granted climo says the EPAC would be favored, and I am inclined to believe that would be the case here if any TCG actually manifests (even though it is the offseason over there as well).

https://i.ibb.co/b5FctQr1/eps-cyclones-swatl-360-2.png

This dissappeared...can't say I'm surprised

[cycloneye]

For the first time in 2025 EPS has something interesting in the basin. As I said in the EPAC thread, the CAG can go any side.

[MetroMike]

Actually the 6z GFS has a well organized system starting around mid month from that area in the previous post and moving NNE and holding together.
Seems a bit too early but still not out of the question.

[Long John]

Actually the 6z GFS has a well organized system starting around mid month from that area in the previous post and moving NNE and holding together.
Seems a bit too early but still not out of the question.

that GFS system should be treated with a lot of skepticism

[chaser1]

The song "Who Let The Dogs Out" by Baha Men comes to mind, seeing that GFS Happy Hour - 336 hr. forecast depicting a 968mb hurricane nailing E. Jamaica

[WaveBreaking]

AI-Euro has a weak low forming at the end of its run (only reason I’m bringing this up is bc last year the AI-Euro actually did a pretty good job at sniffing out TCs 1-2 weeks before they actually formed).

[WeatherBoy2000]

Actually the 6z GFS has a well organized system starting around mid month from that area in the previous post and moving NNE and holding together.
Seems a bit too early but still not out of the question.

The long-range gfs predicting a major Caribbean hurricane in May is a near annual occurrence.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm willing to bet my house that the recent GFS run is just it being on acid with its CAG-turned-into-monster-hurricane-in-May bias (totally not a Beryl moment, hahaha).

But perhaps it's sniffing out CAG activity of some sort? Remains to be seen, but alas, looks like the 2025 season fervor has started.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Actually the 6z GFS has a well organized system starting around mid month from that area in the previous post and moving NNE and holding together.
Seems a bit too early but still not out of the question.

that GFS system should be treated with a lot of skepticism

It's classic GFS phase 8 shenanigans to spin up something outlandish like this. The potential is definitely there for something to spin up on the Caribbean side of Central America, but I'm going to press X to doubt on a major striking Jamaica in May...

[zzzh]

Decent EPS signal

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS blows up a giant typhoon in the WPAC, as well as the strongest off-season Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.

[StormWeather]

18z GFS blows up a giant typhoon in the WPAC, as well as the strongest off-season Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.

Everyone loves a 944 mb hurricane in the Atlantic in May!

[WaveBreaking]

First gfs happy-hour fantasy cane of the season

[ChrisH-UK]

Storms that GFS develop in this area tend to end up shifting west into the Pacific. As an example here is the GFS 0600z run from yesterday vs today .

[cycloneye]

CPC does not believen GFS. Nothing for the next 3 weeks.

[LarryWx]

The last two runs of the Euro Weeklies for the week 5/26-6/1 have backed way down on the chance for W Caribbean/gyre originating activity later threatening FL/SE US.