Texas Spring 2025

[txtwister78]

Nasty looking supercell SW of San Antonio developing with a severe thunderstorm warning posted.

[Cpv17]

Nasty looking supercell SW of San Antonio developing with a severe thunderstorm warning posted.

I was just about to post that. You beat me to it lol

[txtwister78]

Nasty looking supercell SW of San Antonio developing with a severe thunderstorm warning posted.

I was just about to post that. You beat me to it lol

Yeah so far it's behaving but definitely some good rainfall falling across the western areas of San Antonio right now.

[txtwister78]

Nasty looking supercell SW of San Antonio developing with a severe thunderstorm warning posted.

I was just about to post that. You beat me to it lol

Yeah so far it's behaving but definitely some good rainfall falling across the western areas of San Antonio right now.

Actually weakening a bit.

[txtwister78]

Storm hit the outflow boundary from the north and it just squashed it. Saved SA from some big hail or potentially worse had this been a different setup.

[TomballEd]

I see 4 tornado warnings. All radar indicated. So far.

All along the main group of storms. Will storms form ahead of the line, storms that can produce stronger and longer track tornadoes?

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Texas and Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061859Z - 070059Z

SUMMARY...Organized line of thunderstorms with hourly rates up to 3 inches expected to continue sliding eastward while additional merging cells along a warm front increase the potential for 5 inch totals, likely resulting in areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E CH9 WV loop this afternoon depicts a picturesque upper low churning over the southern High Plains with an expansive area of increased ascent extending to the east and north, with a well-organized line of thunderstorms entering eastern TX along a cold front. Additionally, a surface warm front extends eastward from the squall line across southern LA, with low-to-mid 70s dew points south of the front and 60s north. PWATs continue to creep upward and are generally 1.7-2.0" in the highlighted area, but will continue to rise above 2.0" across a larger region of the central Gulf Coast per the RAP. The 06z ECWMF highlights these values as exceeding the 99th percentile when compared to climatology.

Rainfall totals up to 3 inches have been observed from this line near Round Rock, TX and are expected to maintain or increase in intensity through this evening given the increasing moisture and daytime instability being advected northward. Helping this northward advection is a potent 40-50kt 850mb jet extending into eastern TX as of 18z.

Recent HRRR runs support the potential for hourly rates up to 3 inches and 5 inch totals, with the 12z HREF highlighting widespread 20-50% chances for 3-hrly totals greater than 3 inches in the MPD area. Although, the HRRR has been developing too much leading convection compared to current radar data. Outside of the eastern extent of the Texas Triangle, where 3-hrly FFGs are under 3 inches, much of LA does have elevated FFG that could inhibit the initial impacts of heavy rainfall. However, for southern sections of LA along the warm front, thunderstorms are anticipated to remain less progressive and oriented more west-east (similar to the mean wind) by this evening. Current convection near Baton Rouge shows this potential for slow-moving warm frontal storms that may continue and congeal with the approaching line. Scattered flash flooding is likely within this area, with greatest potential for significant impacts where convection is slower to progress on the southern flank from east-central TX through central LA.

Snell

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[South Texas Storms]

Storm hit the outflow boundary from the north and it just squashed it. Saved SA from some big hail or potentially worse had this been a different setup.

SA just can't catch a break with good rainfall. After the bust last Friday, this event has mostly been a dud as well. Airport has received less than 0.50 inch over the past week. Sad to see when all models showed several inches. Now that's probably it for a while. Glad other areas cashed in but the metro area fared much worse than I expected.

[txtwister78]

Storm hit the outflow boundary from the north and it just squashed it. Saved SA from some big hail or potentially worse had this been a different setup.

SA just can't catch a break with good rainfall. After the bust last Friday, this event has mostly been a dud as well. Airport has received less than 0.50 inch over the past week. Sad to see when all models showed several inches. Now that's probably it for a while. Glad other areas cashed in but the metro area fared much worse than I expected.

Yup agreed. Models have really been disappointing down here. On the far western side of SA we did a little better overall but yeah most of SA missed out again.

Maybe another opportunity a week or so away but definitely not going there yet for obvious reasons

SPC has us under a marginal risk threat tomorrow but appears most of the activity that does develop will be south. Hopefully models bust in a good way and we get lucky.

[TomballEd]

Confirmed tornado near Shreveport. If there is a strong/long tracked tornado anywhere in Texas, it will have to be from the cells developing near Beaumont. I don't think the Texas part of the hatched tornado risk verifies.

Edit to Add- Deep South Texas isn't out of the woods for tornadoes

[TomballEd]

Confirmed tornado near Shreveport. If there is a strong/long tracked tornado anywhere in Texas, it will have to be from the cells developing near Beaumont. I don't think the Texas part of the hatched tornado risk verifies.

Edit to Add- Deep South Texas isn't out of the woods for tornadoes

 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1919857217735418124

[jasons2k]

After strong gusty winds all day, it has gone completely calm. I hear birds chirping and the train way off in the distance, like a dead calm first thing in the morning.

[TomballEd]

Whopping 0.17 inches during the evening storms at IAH, a total of 0.25 inches for the day at the airport.

[wxman22]

Received over 2 inches here.The Red river and Wichita river are experiencing bad flooding right now.

[cstrunk]

1.7 inches in Longview yesterday. Looks pretty quiet for the next week or so, before activity picks up again. At least for the northern half of the state.

[Ntxw]

Received over 2 inches here.The Red river and Wichita river are experiencing bad flooding right now.

Basically all of the North and Northeast Texas lakes are full at capacity. One benefit of having NW Texas get plenty of rain is it all flows down to the area lakes here. The rainfall we actually get in our backyards just goes down to Houston. Should be set for the summer in terms of water supply, no shortage. South and West Texas is another story, friends that way still could use a lot more.

https://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

[TomballEd]

Received over 2 inches here.The Red river and Wichita river are experiencing bad flooding right now.

The oilfields around Kamay have shallow water supply wells beyond state land for the KMA Field waterfloods.

[txtwister78]

The model struggle continues. Storms not expected today even for areas south of SA as models had advertised yesterday.

Tomorrow could be a different story as a disturbance moves in from the west but once again models are split on where and how much rain will fall. Most keep storms south of SA but a few others are a little further north bringing some rain into the metro.

Another wait and see setup.

[Stratton23]

Tommorow might be the last chance of rain for quite some time , pretty stout heat ridge looks to take control over the weather across texas, significantly drier weather and probably some 100’s could be in store for west texas and low to middle 90’s for the rest of the state next week, disgusting

[wxman22]

Models are still showing a stormy setup up here at least after the 15th. One of the local chief mets is already talking about the potential for an active severe weather pattern during the 2nd half of the month. with multiple troughs potentially moving into the intermountain west.