2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

The last two runs of the Euro Weeklies for the week 5/26-6/1 have backed way down on the chance for W Caribbean/gyre originating activity later threatening FL/SE US.

Hi my friend. Moved your post to this model runs thread from the indicators one. By the way, you are in orange now. Thank you for supporting S2K.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The last two runs of the Euro Weeklies for the week 5/26-6/1 have backed way down on the chance for W Caribbean/gyre originating activity later threatening FL/SE US.

The eps has moved any development signal to the epac, and the gfs/gefs seems to be heading in that direction as well. Not surprising, climo overwhelmingly favors the epac in May.

[TomballEd]

Nothing definite but hints in GFS and Canadian of a possible weak attempt at cyclogenesis in the sub-tropics S of Bermuda and E of SEUSA in the next few days. If even the models aren't really enthusiastic, not likely, but subtropical season is about here. No NHC fruits.

[WaveBreaking]

GFS back at it again with the 300+ hour nonsense.

[cycloneye]

GFS back at it again with the 300+ hour nonsense.

https://i.imgur.com/CTrqYQw.png

Cat 4 in May.

[Hurricane2022]

GFS back at it again with the 300+ hour nonsense.

https://i.imgur.com/CTrqYQw.png

This would be Absolute Cinema

[Hurricane2022]

GFS back at it again with the 300+ hour nonsense.

https://i.imgur.com/CTrqYQw.png

dis is CINEMA






*note: 18z GFS shows absolutely nothing*

[Steve]

Corrected Australian model (BOMM - ensemble bias-corrected) is the only MJO model that has much amplification and a swing through the favorable phases at the end of the month. It doesn't update on the weekends to CPC, so I'm waiting for the 5-12 output to see if it's going to join the other models by just going back into the circle or if it is going stay with this kind of solution. My assumption is that it will follow the other models which all ran Saturday, Sunday or today so far. On the off-chance it was right, we'd likely see something trying to pop right after Memorial Day. Low chances, but it's the model thread.

[tolakram]

If we post every single time GFS >300 hours shows something the thread will become useless IMO, filled with spam.

If a storm persists and keeps moving forward in each model run then it might be onto something, but if it keeps showing up at the end of a run, on any model, it's not worth much. We have no hard rule on this, I'm giving an opinion at this time.

[Dylan]

5/15 TROPICAL UPDATE - Will we see a May storm this year? Hurricane Season is still over two weeks away. Is Andrea more likely to form before the official start of hurricane season or after?



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=KWQcheJRljI

[chaser1]

The Tropical Outlook for the North Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean Sea -
A concentrated area of convection associated with a strong tropical wave.... does NOT exist. On the other hand, long range forcast models suggest..... Nothing either.

[LarryWx]

The Euro Weeklies are back to an elevated risk. A couple of weeks ago, it had a moderately elevated risk for the week 5/26-6/1. It later backed off of that. But now the week of 6/9-15 has a significantly elevated risk vs climo fwiw.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS had fwiw ~8 TCs late in the run near FL.

[AnnularCane]

The 0Z GEFS had fwiw ~8 TCs late in the run near FL.

Is the GEFS one of the ensembles or has it been imbibing with the GFS?

[Teban54]

The 0Z GEFS had fwiw ~8 TCs late in the run near FL.

Still here on the 6z GEFS, and the time frame moved even closer with the developing members mostly showing genesis within 10 days:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Noticeable uptick in activity on the 12z EPS in the Gulf in the longer range.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS had fwiw ~8 TCs late in the run near FL.

Is the GEFS one of the ensembles or has it been imbibing with the GFS?

Maybe
The subsequent GEFS haven’t been as active as the 0Z. But I feel that the idea of a gyre related W Caribbean TCG in early to mid June is still a legit possibility, which is still hinted at by the GEFS as well as the EPS. Not likely as of yet, but a bear to watch.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS had fwiw ~8 TCs late in the run near FL.

Still here on the 6z GEFS, and the time frame moved even closer with the developing members mostly showing genesis within 10 days:

https://i.postimg.cc/1XhJjKyK/ezgif-86dbb8490fc28c.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/DwxF3SJG/image.png

Many subsequent GEFS runs have had a significant # of the ~30 members with TCs. Today’s 12Z shows them starting as early as June 4th.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1927073795430298047

[Stratton23]

Some hints on the 18z GFS of weak low pressure trying to consolidate somewhere near the yucatan channel around the 3-4th, not much though