When will Andrea form?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 05, 2025 4:31 pm

Ok folks. Here is the first poll of 2025 for the named systems and we start with Andrea. Poll closes on May 15 at 5:31 PM EDT.

#2 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon May 05, 2025 6:47 pm

I'll go by what the models, or at least the GFS, is showing. So May 15-25. But probably not a major. :lol:

Sciencerocks · #3 Postby **Sciencerocks** » Mon May 05, 2025 9:32 pm

Andrea is normally a slopstorm that is heavily sheared or subtropical. Western Gulf that makes landfall with 45 knt winds around the 5th of June is my guess.

Heavily sheared with most of the convection on the eastern quad!

#4 Postby **chaser1** » Tue May 06, 2025 10:49 am

Decided to ignore present early season "party-favors" that the GFS is tossing out their, and stick with my original pre-season thinking. Went with early July for season kick off.

Category5Kaiju · #5 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Sat May 10, 2025 11:48 pm

You know what, screw it. We're going bold here. :lol:

Going with late July, and 2025 decides to pull a 1977/1980/1992 with Andrea becoming a dangerous Category 5. The first season in a while where the first named storm of the season ends up being a gangbuster storm.

underthwx · #6 Postby **underthwx** » Sun May 11, 2025 4:11 am

I picked May 26-31...

Teban54 · #7 Postby **Teban54** » Sun May 11, 2025 12:27 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:You know what, screw it. We're going bold here. Going with late July, and 2025 decides to pull a 1977/1980/1992 with Andrea becoming a dangerous Category 5. The first season in a while where the first named storm of the season ends up being a gangbuster storm.

If you're going down that route, might as well postpone it for another month - like a certain storm whose name differs by just one letter...

(Disclaimer: This is by no means wishing harm on anyone)

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun May 11, 2025 1:40 pm

The poll will close next thursday at 5:31 PM EDT so those who have not voted yet do so.

CyclonicFury · #9 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Tue May 13, 2025 11:46 am

June 17, western Gulf of Mexico

StormWeather · #10 Postby **StormWeather** » Tue May 13, 2025 7:39 pm

June 11-20, Western Caribbean (As climo would favor at this time of year)(unless we get a subtropical junkie)

DorkyMcDorkface · #11 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Wed May 14, 2025 8:39 am

Backtracking on my "1 storm will form in May" prediction from the other thread and will say mid-June (11-20). MJO will be around + climo will be more favorable (obviously). Got half a month left and so far there is nothing convincing on any of the models that suggests any sort of pre-season development (subtropical or otherwise) so my confidence in that is fading.

Pas_Bon · #12 Postby **Pas_Bon** » Wed May 14, 2025 10:03 am

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that Andrea will form some time between May 15, 2025 - December 15, 2025

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 16, 2025 5:59 am

Poll is now closed for voting but the members can make comments as thread will remain open.

MadaTheConquistador · #14 Postby **MadaTheConquistador** » Fri May 30, 2025 11:56 am

I think Andrea could form soon, I think I just recently heard the news that the NHC is eyeing a tropical wave in the Caribbean I believe. Obviously it's not a guarantee that this wave forms into Tropical Storm Andrea, but regardless I could see her forming soon, in the next week or two if I were to guess.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 24, 2025 9:28 am

6 members voted for the winning option and was at 14% of the total votes of poll.