My preliminary 2004 hurricane season forecast

[cycloneye]

Well after an active 2003 hurricane season 14/7/3 now we start to look ahead to what the 2004 hurricane season will be like.At this time I will not post all of my anaylisis of all the factors as I will do that at my annual may first one but I am only going to point out the numbers and a little explanation.

The numbers that I have in a preliminary report are a slightly above average season 12/6/2. I see a weak el nino evolving and that may decrease slightly the number of atlantic basin systems.But then comes the other factors like the QBO,SST'S,barometric pressures in the atlantic,the thermoline circulation,the TUTT,the azores and bermuda highs that may balance things up.At my may 1 forecast I will go in detail on all those factors and make a complete forecast anaylisis by then.

[JCT777]

Your forecast seems very reasonable at this time Luis. I will probably wait until May to come up with numbers for the 2004 Atlantic tropical season.

[cycloneye]

Well John another season with double digit numbers is instore for 2004 but this time I see a less active atlantic basin in my preliminary anaylisis but we have 6 months to see all the factors what will they do but between 10-12 named systems is a good bet right now.