2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
Here's my first version of the "SST comparison" plots for this hurricane season. As a reminder, these remove the global mean anomaly (to account for long-term trends). I compared with recent neutral to cool ENSO seasons, mostly. The Atlantic MDR is warmer at this point than years like 2021, 2018, and 2019, but definitely cooler than 2017. The -PMM we've seen recently also shows up (cooler waters west of Mexico)

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1920881834591699173

[WeatherBoy2000]

@DerekOrtt
This is not what we want to see. This is full on 2023 May warming

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1920710002274177332

Trades are predicted to pick up again, anomalies could easily fall right back:

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1920879215278223379

[cycloneye]

More sst anomalie comparisons.

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1920914532932694116

[AnnularCane]

My head...is spinning like a Cat 5.

I wonder how much all these SST comparisons even really matter.

[StPeteMike]

My head...is spinning like a Cat 5.

I wonder how much all these SST comparisons even really matter.

I think they do have a small impact on strength, but as always, it’s just a fraction of what can get a storm to Cat 5 strength. Just looking at the 2024 and 2023 temps, I think it’s very preliminary to think this will be a quiet season when 2023 produced more named storms than 2024.

I would love to know if warm water temperatures interacts differently with the air mass in the MDR compared to somewhere in the Gulf or Western Caribbean, where there is less trade winds. Just me thinking out loud here.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, judging by the sst anomalies, you probably would've never imagined 2020 to feature more NSs than 2024 or 2023.

It's also interesting to note how much warmer this year's Caribbean is compared to the MDR. In fact, this year's Caribbean looks to be roughly on part with the warmth seen in 2017 and 2005 and somewhat lagging behind 2024.

[chaser1]

Wow, judging by the sst anomalies, you probably would've never imagined 2020 to feature more NSs than 2024 or 2023.

It's also interesting to note how much warmer this year's Caribbean is compared to the MDR. In fact, this year's Caribbean looks to be roughly on part with the warmth seen in 2017 and 2005 and somewhat lagging behind 2024.

Increased RI potential right in our own "backyard"? That's about as appealing as full-on exposure to an imminent brontosaurus fart! Fortunately for us, brontosauruses are long extinct. Equally fortunate is that far more than SST's ultimately play a role toward tropical cyclone genesis and/or RI into major hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

The whole Eric Webb's message below. Looks like the word wavebreaking will be mentioned a lot this season.

@webberweather
This year’s hurricane seasons in the Northern Hemisphere are going to be a classic case of what happens when you’re more than a year or two removed from an El Niño event.

The global Hadley/tropical Cell expands poleward and weakens as heat released from the prior El Niño event is being fluxed/mixed around the extratropics, which weakens the temperature gradient at the edge of the Hadley Cell.

Meanwhile, long-term stability increases from moist adiabatic adjustment in a warming climate only reinforce the stability issues.

Hence, while you’ll still have plenty of hurricanes, most basins struggle will likely with stability/dry air, especially in the earlier portion of the season when it’s a bigger limiting factor to tropical cyclogenesis.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1921203414769528881

[cycloneye]

The trade winds will be back at MDR to stop the warming now taking place.

[julius davis]

westerlies return after that

[WeatherBoy2000]

The whole Eric Webb's message below. Looks like the word wavebreaking will be mentioned a lot this season.

@webberweather
This year’s hurricane seasons in the Northern Hemisphere are going to be a classic case of what happens when you’re more than a year or two removed from an El Niño event.

The global Hadley/tropical Cell expands poleward and weakens as heat released from the prior El Niño event is being fluxed/mixed around the extratropics, which weakens the temperature gradient at the edge of the Hadley Cell.

Meanwhile, long-term stability increases from moist adiabatic adjustment in a warming climate only reinforce the stability issues.

Hence, while you’ll still have plenty of hurricanes, most basins struggle will likely with stability/dry air, especially in the earlier portion of the season when it’s a bigger limiting factor to tropical cyclogenesis.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1921203414769528881

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1921273663942234153



This would suggest an average to moderately above average season at most. However, the difference with 2025 compared to those years is that we're not deep within a muli-year long strong la nina.

[cycloneye]

The May UKMET run for ASO.

[cycloneye]

AnnularCane More back anf forth about the sst's and ssta's.

@DylanFedericoWX
The Atlantic is getting an active look as we approach hurricane season. The warmest SST anomalies are focused in the MDR with the subtropics a bit cooler.

Climate models call for an opposite configuration this Summer but sometimes you just have to look out the window

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1921953873867968966

[WeatherBoy2000]

AnnularCane More back anf forth about the sst's and ssta's.

@DylanFedericoWX
The Atlantic is getting an active look as we approach hurricane season. The warmest SST anomalies are focused in the MDR with the subtropics a bit cooler.

Climate models call for an opposite configuration this Summer but sometimes you just have to look out the window

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1921953873867968966

The gfs shows lower trades for at least the next week.

[julius davis]

I would put a caution on the GFS for now

[WeatherBoy2000]

I would put a caution on the GFS for now

Why specifically now? I know the gfs is not 100% accurate, but that's what it is showing for at least the near term.

[CyclonicFury]

After the weak CCKW passing shortly, it looks like the NATL and EPAC will be in a suppressed MJO phase for much of late May and early June. Since MJO is very important for early season activity in the deep tropics, it's not likely we'll see anything during that time. However, by around the middle of June, it appears as if the MJO may return to the EPAC/NATL, potentially being the first legitimate window for tropical development. Mid-June is a very common window for Gulf CAG development in particular.

[Stratton23]

I just have a suspicion that we are going to have alot more home grown systems this season compared to years past, MDR doesnt look overall favorable, the the caribbean and gulf yet again might be hotspots to watch

[Kingarabian]

When its 2 years after an El Nino, It's usually an active/impactful Atlantic hurricane season. Couple that with this year having 2017 as an ENSO analog.

[StormWeather]

When its 2 years after an El Nino, It's usually an active/impactful Atlantic hurricane season. Couple that with this year having 2017 as an ENSO analog.

My top analogs are 2008 and 2017. Both years were two seasons after an El Niño, and the LRC (if anyone here follows that) suggest we could see a pattern that could produce an Ike/Irma style track this year. Both years had plenty of Gulf action with minimal activity in the Caribbean and MDR.

The SHEM has acted most like the 2007-08 season with the SWIO and the AR being active to very active and the SPAC being mostly dead.