2025 ATL hurricane season is here

[cycloneye]

Time goes fast that we are getting closer to the start and before June 1 comes, the TWO's will begin to be issued on May 15th. Let's see if the fever for the season increases as time goes by because right not this talking tropics forum is like a ghost place with not a lot of posting.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... sive&csz=1

[ouragans]

Here's a little table I did to recap the date of the first tropical wave as per TAFB, for the past 20 years. It's french, but the data is the same

Envoyé de mon SM-A256B en utilisant Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

The forum continues to look like a ghost place considering is May 13, and is only a couple of days before the TWO's begin to be issued. We are waiting for the first tropical wave to be introduced.

[cycloneye]

Here is the first TWO.

[cycloneye]

Stormybajan, ouragans,, Patty, Msbee, still waiting for the first tropical wave of 2025 that will be introduced by TAFB.

[Steve]

Hey cycloneye. It’s 2 weeks and 1 1/2 days.

[Nimbus]

Big T storms coming off the northeast coast of Hispaniola tonight.
All those lightning strikes must be putting on a nice evening show but tropical formation is not expected.

[ouragans]

The average date was May 14 (based on the last 20 years). And I don't see any signal for one to get out of Africa

[cycloneye]

The average date was May 14 (based on the last 20 years). And I don't see any signal for one to get out of Africa

Maybe this will be the #1?

[AnnularCane]

June 1 is showing up on long-range models (GFS anyway) for what it's worth.

[FireRat]

Getting very weird vibes for this season.
Crazy we're less than 3 weeks away from the 2025 season
Lets see how it goes!

[cycloneye]

The average date was May 14 (based on the last 20 years). And I don't see any signal for one to get out of Africa

Maybe this will be the #1?

https://i.imgur.com/8xLTT1D.png

Turns out, it was not the first wave. But soon enough we will have a ondulation with change in wind directions and boom.

[AnnularCane]

The average date was May 14 (based on the last 20 years). And I don't see any signal for one to get out of Africa

Maybe this will be the #1?

https://i.imgur.com/8xLTT1D.png

Turns out, it was not the first wave. But soon enough we will have a ondulation with change in wind directions and boom.

What exactly are they before they become waves? Like just random thunderstorm clusters? I had previously thought they were all waves.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM TWD:

Recent satellite imagery shows a broad wave, potentially a
tropical wave, slowly emerging off the coast of Africa, likely
helping to enhance some convection along the monsoon trough near
16-17W.

[cycloneye]

Is Oficial #1 wave!!



 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1924203390151606746

[AnnularCane]

Now we wait for the first invest.

[cycloneye]

From the TWD:

A tropical wave has come off the coast of West Africa earlier
today. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 12N and its axis
is near 18W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N to 12N between 13W and 21W.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WDAT.shtml

[ouragans]

TWD 19 May 12z

A tropical wave continues to move away from the coast of West Africa. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 10N and is alongabout 19W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 15W and 22W.

[chaser1]

:team:

Now we wait for the first invest.

Or even better yet........... the 1st Season Cancel

[TomballEd]

IMBY centric- but Allison 2001 per Wiki exited Africa as a tropical wave May 21.

Ensemble shear doesn't look favorable in the open Atlantic and 26C SST isotherm isn't until about 50W. Caribbean/Gulf don't look great on shear either into early June.

Season cancel talk would be incredibly premature even if June and July produce no named storms. If memory serves, combined June and July average just over 1 named storm.