Texas Spring 2025

[HockeyTx82]

20z HRRR a little further south and not as impressive?

[cstrunk]

Latest radar scan shows possible initiation just west of downtown Fort Worth and near Granbury.

Also a healthy cell developing north of Fredericksburg.

[txtwister78]

Models really aren't all that reliable under these conditional setups.

My advice is watch visible satellite imagery on days like today and look for building cumulus.

For example you've got a warned storm firing west of Llano and HRRR had nothing in that area on its previous runs so again hit or miss and for many it will be miss thankfully in terms of severe weather.

Tomorrow may be a little more active. We need the rain down here of course but for some that could definitely come with a hefty price tag if you get one of these hailers that the environment supports.

[Brent]

Models really aren't all that reliable under these conditional setups.

My advice is watch visible satellite imagery on days like today and look for building cumulus.

For example you've got a warned storm firing west of Llano and HRRR had nothing in that area on its previous runs so again hit or miss and for many it will be miss thankfully in terms of severe weather.

Tomorrow may be a little more active. We need the rain down here of course but for some that could definitely come with a hefty price tag if you get one of these hailers that the environment supports.

Yeah just to add to this but some of the hype up here for Sunday and Monday especially is borderline ridiculous. I mean don't get me wrong if everything lines up right it could be a big outbreak but like it's still so iffy it it actually will. it's gonna be a very conditional setup for the most part with not everyone seeing anything

Look at St Louis it's been like two storms doing everything. Not everyone is getting rain even

[Ntxw]

Couple of storms have fired. One over the mid cities. The one SW of FW looks ominous but early.

[snownado]

Couple of storms have fired. One over the mid cities. The one SW of FW looks ominous but early.

Looking like it's going to be a mostly south of I-20 ordeal.

[wxman22]

[wxman22]

The 0z HRRR tomorrow.

[HockeyTx82]

The 0z HRRR tomorrow.

https://i.ibb.co/PvDB3Kth/refcmp-us-state-tx-ne.png

https://i.ibb.co/gMLW2z6J/refcmp-us-state-tx-ne-1.png

Yes I was tracking that myself, so looks like a line of storms around 5:00? I guess that really limits the large hail perhaps unless I'm not reading the radar correctly.

[Cpv17]

The 0z HRRR tomorrow.

https://i.ibb.co/PvDB3Kth/refcmp-us-state-tx-ne.png

https://i.ibb.co/gMLW2z6J/refcmp-us-state-tx-ne-1.png

Yes I was tracking that myself, so looks like a line of storms around 5:00? I guess that really limits the large hail perhaps unless I'm not reading the radar correctly.

That looks like more of a high wind event than hail from that presentation.

[mmmmsnouts]

That was a weird severe thunderstorm warning box in Johnson and southern Tarrant. The storm wasn’t even close to following the path of the warning box. Even at the beginning it looked like they plotted it wrong.

[txtwister78]

noaa seems to think that the heat ridge breaks down fully over the state in the 8-14 day outlook, calling for wetter conditions for most of the state, GFS/ Euro are trending stormier, will see if that holds as we get closer in time, but im not holding my breath lol

I don't know about the 8-14 outlook but pretty clear the excessive heat is breaking down next week per most models. That pattern change next week has been fairly consistent via the globals so yeah I think we're getting a reprieve from this above normal heat (which as I mentioned a few days back wouldn't last thankfully). Just too early to be talking permanent heat highs. Not quite there yet.

As for rain chances I don't blame anyone (in particular down across this region) for not jumping on that model bandwagon, however anytime you get a front deep into TX in May you watch for storm activity obviously.

Tomorrow continues to look interesting further south for areas across the southern hill country and western areas of SC TX. Need to keep a close eye on radar/satellite.

[ElectricStorm]

Hail-driven Enhanced risk upgrade for N TX including DFW

[wxman22]

Enhanced Risk issued today over DFW for hail… with a day 3 Enhanced Risk already in place for portions of the area. Busy stretch of severe weather ahead for the Plains.

[Brent]

Enhanced Risk issued today over DFW for hail… with a day 3 Enhanced Risk already in place for portions of the area. Busy stretch of severe weather ahead for the Plains.

https://i.ibb.co/j7sNVDh/IMG-0413.png

https://i.ibb.co/fd6kPbwh/IMG-0415.png

https://i.ibb.co/8gHmNmnr/IMG-0416.png

Someone just posted "potentially historic" here on Monday. Yeah the hype is out of control

[HockeyTx82]

Enhanced Risk issued today over DFW for hail… with a day 3 Enhanced Risk already in place for portions of the area. Busy stretch of severe weather ahead for the Plains.

https://i.ibb.co/j7sNVDh/IMG-0413.png

https://i.ibb.co/fd6kPbwh/IMG-0415.png

https://i.ibb.co/8gHmNmnr/IMG-0416.png

Someone just posted "potentially historic" here on Monday. Yeah the hype is out of control

Slow news cycle?

[Brent]

Enhanced Risk issued today over DFW for hail… with a day 3 Enhanced Risk already in place for portions of the area. Busy stretch of severe weather ahead for the Plains.

https://i.ibb.co/j7sNVDh/IMG-0413.png

https://i.ibb.co/fd6kPbwh/IMG-0415.png

https://i.ibb.co/8gHmNmnr/IMG-0416.png

Someone just posted "potentially historic" here on Monday. Yeah the hype is out of control

Slow news cycle?

Right? I mean yeah it looks bad but it's still day 3. Too far out

And again I'm envisioning 1 or 2 really bad storms and not much else even if it does blow up

[wxman22]

SPC also increased the wind threat to 30% in the morning update.

[HockeyTx82]

12z looks like discrete cells. Not liking that run

[wxman22]

12z looks fore discrete cells. Not liking that run

Yep.