Texas Spring 2025

[rwfromkansas]

I just had a roof replaced so keep big hail away! I’m in Abilene this weekend so should be fine here at least.

But today is actually a day/evening event. Bears watching. For tomorrow my KS hometown is in the middle of the tornado risk. Monday actually looks bigger for DFW. Earlier that looked to be more east.

Seems the dryline is slowing down?

Maybe it’s time to get the new version of the GR radar software.

[HockeyTx82]

Reed is heading to Oklahoma in the Dominator. If he says I'm coming to North Texas I'll get a little more worried.

http://youtube.com/post/UgkxTlln5_3IFvo ... ure=shared

[txtwister78]

Further south across SC TX based on some of the incoming 12z hi-res runs, I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight shift east from SPC regarding today's severe outlook.

Some of these runs show portions of SA metro and surrounding communities under severe threat this evening but a lot will depend on where/when storms develop. Another day of watching satellite/radar trends out west.

[wxman22]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging
gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern
Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast.

...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region...
Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly
low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very
moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central
TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system
and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms
are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting
supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial
concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model
solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS
by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have
extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario,
with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This
cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into
central/northern MS.

[HockeyTx82]

Lots of clouds here in Ponder. Was that forecasted?

Will that impede any of the storms later?

[Stratton23]

Models are now starting to consistently show more of a wet weather pattern for the whole state starting next weekend and beyond, im still not getting my hopes up yet, but im becoming more cautiously optimistic that more widespread rains maybe ib store for the state down the road, we need that badly

[Cpv17]

Lots of clouds here in Ponder. Was that forecasted?

Will that impede any of the storms later?

Yep, clouds are a good thing.

[Edwards Limestone]

Models are now starting to consistently show more of a wet weather pattern for the whole state starting next weekend and beyond, im still not getting my hopes up yet, but im becoming more cautiously optimistic that more widespread rains maybe ib store for the state down the road, we need that badly

Not buying it. I’m sure NE TX and OK will get a ton of rain though.

[rwfromkansas]

Lots of clouds here in Ponder. Was that forecasted?

Will that impede any of the storms later?

I don’t think it will limit anything unless it’s showery.

It’s almost 90.

[txtwister78]

Clear skies with temps already in the 90's with a line of agitated cumulus depicted on satellite imagery. Definitely the area to watch per SPC.

[opticsguy]

Lots of clouds here in Ponder. Was that forecasted?

Will that impede any of the storms later?

I don’t think it will limit anything unless it’s showery.

It’s almost 90.

88F with a 77F dewpoint here (NE of Lindale). Plenty of CAPE if something gets going.

[HockeyTx82]

Yes I was just checking the dew point and wow that's crazy

[Stratton23]

Edwards Limestone we will see, youll get some rain eventually, hard to get it with the dry line since its more of a hit or miss type setup, late next weekend looks like some sort of weak back door front moves into the state, thats a better focusing mechanism for more widespread storms

[gpsnowman]

Lots of clouds here in Ponder. Was that forecasted?

Will that impede any of the storms later?

I don’t think it will limit anything unless it’s showery.

It’s almost 90.

Yeah sun is out in Coppell. Warmed up a few degrees.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m west in Abilene at a first birthday party outdoors. Even here it’s oppressive with 70 dp.

[HockeyTx82]

Watch incoming, max hail in the discussion is 4+ inches

[wxman22]

Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...much of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 171910Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will rapidly form over northwest Texas and spread
into southern Oklahoma and across much of North Texas. Very large
damaging hail is expected, along with corridors of wind damage.

DISCUSSION...Warm front continues to move northward into
south-central OK, with a very moist and unstable air mass developing
to the south. Meanwhile, a dryline arcs from near CDS into
west-central TX.

Visible imagery show rapid TCU near SPS and extending southward
toward BWD. Extreme instability is already in place with MLCAPE
approaching 5000 J/kg. Meanwhile, hodographs are elongated with
nearly 60 kt effective deep-layer shear.

Storms will develop soon and spread primarily eastward. Both
supercells and bows are possible. Splitting cells may move
northeastward across much of southern OK as well. The extreme
instability coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable
shear will support significant damaging hail and wind.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/17/2025

[snownado]

Cloud coverage has been a lot more variable than the posts suggest

We had predominately sunnny skies in Plano until 11am when then stratocumulus deck moved in from the south. It's now starting to slowly mix back out again.

But the clouds have done nothing to impede instability. LIs are over -12 and CAPE is pushing 6000 J/KG thanks to dewpoints pooling into the mid 70s and cool/dry mid-levels.

Even 3km CAPE is good (over 100 J/KG).

[wxman22]

It begins. Update Tornado Watch also issued for NW Texas and Oklahoma.

[HockeyTx82]

Will those cluster of storms down south steal the moisture for the ones that are supposed to get us because I don't remember seeing anything that far south on the model runs.

That also appears that the warm front is surging North into Oklahoma thus the tornado watch up there.