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captainbarbossa19 wrote:Hi everyone! It has been a while, but I am pleased to announce that I have officially completed my education at Mississippi State and have earned my Bachelor of Science in Professional Meteorology! I am so excited to see where my journey heads next!
ElectricStorm wrote:Tornado outbreak possible tomorrow (Sunday) but there are still some uncertainties. Overall storm coverage being the main one. Kansas and northern OK still looks to be the most favorable area as of now and I think a 15# could be warranted at some point, though I could see them wait until a leter update. Further south, lack of stronger ascent along the dryline may lead to only a couple cells developing but anything that can sustain would have strong tornado potential.
This is assuming storms don't fire too early like they have several times in the southern Plains over the last few years. 0z HRRR is slower with the nose of the shortwave moving in, which would lead to better timing and a more dangerous event but this is still something to keep an eye on.
I think the 10# could be extended further south into central OK at some point but we'll have a better idea with actual obs in the morning. Dangerous day ahead
HockeyTx82 wrote:If SPC is correct on this one Sunday is the appetizer and Monday is the main course.
At least the Stars closed it out, so on Monday I can just focus on weather.
certainly was true in the winter. The two hyped up storms fell flat locally and our biggest snowstorm came out of nowhere
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the
central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will shift from the Intermountain West into the
central Plains on Monday. A moderate to strong mid-level jet streak
will emerge along the southern periphery of this trough from the
Southwest into the central/southern Plains. A surface low in
Nebraska will gradually consolidate southward and deepen as the
mid-level jet emerges across the southern Plains. A sharp dryline
will be present from central Kansas to central Oklahoma and
north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from near Omaha to the
lower Ohio Valley and remain mostly stationary during the day.
...Central/Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the warm front in the
northern Missouri border vicinity on Monday morning. Otherwise, a
mostly convection-free warm sector is expected to the south. Very
strong instability will develop along and east of the dryline with
convective temperatures likely reached by early afternoon. As large
scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough overspreads the
dryline, expect scattered supercells to develop along the dryline in
Kansas and Oklahoma. Very large to potentially giant hail will be
possible with these supercells initially. In addition, hodographs
will support tornadoes. The tornado threat will increase through the
afternoon and peak during the evening as the low-level jet
strengthens and low-level shear increases. However, by this time,
storm mode could be messy which is one factor precluding higher
probabilities at this time.
00Z CAM guidance shows a range of solutions including:
1. Earlier storms as the primary threat.
2. Delayed dryline initiation with a potential tornado outbreak type
solution across central/eastern Kansas and central/eastern Oklahoma.
3. A combination of both solutions.
The uncertainty in guidance at this time precludes a moderate risk,
but higher probabilities may be needed when a more favored solution
becomes more clear, especially if one of the higher-end scenarios
appears likely.
..Bentley.. 05/18/2025
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected
later today across portions of the central and southern Plains.
Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level
trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving
east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+
kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject
into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and
evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level
moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the
southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb
was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge
City raob.
Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the
southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow
over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later
this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s
across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border
and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this
afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered
storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast
into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent
overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector.
Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across
western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst
strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass
with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with
any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify
during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs,
supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy
will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large
to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to
intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into
south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on
the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of
south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and
expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk.
Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK,
but a similar environment will exist.
Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much
convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially
across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any
updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass
should produce at least large hail.
Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a
secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO
into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO
into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to
boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong
low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it
spreads northeast during the overnight hours.
Brent wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:If SPC is correct on this one Sunday is the appetizer and Monday is the main course.
At least the Stars closed it out, so on Monday I can just focus on weather.
Yeah Monday has been the hype here locally all along. Biggest threat is still west of us today
I will say I feel like lately our biggest storms year round have been when there was no hype
So yeah I'm gonna be in wait and see mode
Mesoscale Discussion 0858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025
Areas affected...Northwest to west-central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 181858Z - 182130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the dryline is expected
roughly between 20-22 UTC across northwest to west-central Texas.
The convective environment will support supercells capable of large
hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely as
storms begin to develop.
DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows shallow, but slowly
deepening, cumulus along and just ahead of a sharpening dryline as
it continues to mix east and boundary-layer depth increases amid
filtered diurnal heating. Latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings suggest
any lingering MLCIN will be minimized as surface temperatures warm
into the 92-95 F range over the next few hours within the warm
sector. Regional VWPs show flow within the lowest 2-3 km AGL
oriented roughly along the dryline, which should promote adequate
residence times for parcels to reach their LFCs and initiate deep
convection. Latest high-res solutions suggest this should occur
generally between 20-22 UTC. Thunderstorms will mature within a very
unstable air mass with MLCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg and
effective shear on the order of 40-50 knots. Limited directional
shear will initially promote splitting supercells with an attendant
very large hail threat (most probable max hail size may be 2-3
inches in diameter). Southeasterly low-level winds across northwest
TX may support adequate low-level veering for some tornado threat.
Further south (roughly south of I-20), 1.5 to 2.5 km LCL heights and
more backed low-level flow will modulate the initial tornado
potential. After 00 UTC a strengthening low-level jet will increase
low-level hodograph curvature and support an increasing tornado
threat with any remaining discrete right-moving supercells across
much of central/northern TX. Watch issuance will likely be needed as
thunderstorm initiation becomes more imminent.
..Moore/Hart.. 05/18/2025
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
430 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
West-Central into North-Central Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to rapidly develop and pose a
threat for both a few tornadoes and large to very large hail this
afternoon and evening as they move east-northeastward. The largest
hailstones may reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. A strong tornado
may occur with any persistent supercell this evening as low-level
shear increases.
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