Texas Spring 2025

[wxman22]

[gpsnowman]

Another 7-10 split going on the DFW area.

[HockeyTx82]

Another 7-10 split going on the DFW area.

Think that will hold? HRRR supports it.

I'm on pins and needles here.

[Brent]

Hail storm moving in here doesn't seem too extreme at least

[snownado]

Another 7-10 split going on the DFW area.

It's a good thing the site's been down. It's helping to keep my choice words to myself.

EDIT: The return to Sunny/Dry weather starting tomorrow can't come soon enough.

[rendihess]

Anyone having trouble with tropical tidbits?

Same. I started using pivotal

Your lucky, I can't log in to Storm2K from the home computer. I'm using the same Chrome account on my work computer and it works. I'll be ok if they let me bring the work computer over the summer.

I can’t log in to storm2k from my phone or my home computer. I turned on my vpn and it works.

[ElectricStorm]

Easily the best storm of the year for me so far here north of Tulsa. Huge downpour, small hail, tons of lightning, and now the power is out lol. We'll see if we get anything else later. Luckily it's been pretty messy overall outside the PDS warning earlier. Still could see new development in central OK over the next few hours

[HockeyTx82]

Is the cap holding for DFW? This is wild.

[rwfromkansas]

Very fluffy cumulus clouds. No evidence of any development west of DFW. Weird.

Goes to show you can’t rely on the SPC outlook to really be the end all.

[Stratton23]

If you want more rain, i got good news for you, confidence is increasing on a frontal boundary stalling out somewhere in texas next week, looks like another prolonged of wet weather could be in store for the state, this is really good news for folks in west, south, central and se texas

[ElectricStorm]

Significant tornado south of McAlester, OK. Big CC drop PDS warned

[wxman22]

The moderate risk in some of the Red River counties seems to be verifying. Clay county has been getting multiple training supercells for the last couple of hours now. As it important to remember that the moderate risk was not just issued for tornadoes but also for Hail and Winds. At least the Hail portion of the risk is verifying.

[Cpv17]

If you want more rain, i got good news for you, confidence is increasing on a frontal boundary stalling out somewhere in texas next week, looks like another prolonged of wet weather could be in store for the state, this is really good news for folks in west, south, central and se texas

Man, I hope you’re right.

[wxman22]

It also looks like the June storm pattern is setting up starting later this week. As numerous disturbances move into the state in the NW flow aloft. Pattern looks favorable for MCS's and severe weather. And if the models are correct we could be looking at a long stretch of storminess again, like in April.I know not everyone saw the storms in April, but it was the wettest April on record here. The rainfall looks to be more widespread than it was in April this time though.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 i hope i am haha, im still a little cautious about it, but things are definitely pointing in the right direction for a more stormy pattern, which will also hopefully keep temperatures down a bit

[txtwister78]

I'm still in a wait and see mode regarding early next week until I see the ensembles come together. Still some spread there regarding precip outputs in the medium to longer range, however around Memorial Day we typically see another spike climatology wise for above normal precip so this wouldn't be something out of the ordinary should it occur.

But these NW flow patterns can also play tricks with models and they also have a tendency to be hit or miss at times as well depending on leftover outflow boundaries from previous day activity and how much recovery we get the following day should we see MCS development in particular.

Still plenty of time to watch and fine tune the details obviously, but at least we have a flip from what CPC had been showing in previous outlooks that some were thinking would be a longer dry pattern stretching into the summer. That no longer appears likely which is encouraging for those of us who need the rain.

[HockeyTx82]

Well the HRRR held up, crazy stuff. I still understand why they go high-end on these but my gosh it seems like we just had a paper thin layer protecting us from utter destruction, if that's what kept us from getting storms.

Any professional mets care to opine as to what was the missing ingredient to break the cap? Was the energy just too far north?

[gpsnowman]

Some sprinkles here in GP earlier and sunshine now with a pretty sunset. Looks like Ardmore OK is getting drilled this evening.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, this is a weird one. I will have to pull out the Outbrk game on Steam to see a tornado, not that I want one here!

Hope things don't get too out of hand up north....already had some nasty hail and tornadoes today up there.

[txtwister78]

Well the HRRR held up, crazy stuff. I still understand why they go high-end on these but my gosh it seems like we just had a paper thin layer protecting us from utter destruction, if that's what kept us from getting storms.

Any professional mets care to opine as to what was the missing ingredient to break the cap? Was the energy just too far north?

The lifting mechanism (forcing) in place wasn't strong enough to breach the cap today which again as mentioned earlier wasn't all that surprising as you had slightly better dynamics north closer to the frontal boundary/ ejecting low pressure to work with, so while you can get elevated showers and even a few storms to pop, the cap in place today suppressed those and prevented them from going surface based tapping into the available instability which yes would've meant big storms had that occurred.

You typically see this setup in the summer also by the way. High cape days, but without a trigger it's just cool colors or numbers on a map. By the summer, your dryline typically hangs out in West Texas anyway so it's even more rare to get storms further east.