2025 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS both showing a 2nd system in less than 10 days.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro.

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Not wasting time.

[Yellow Evan]

Need genesis by 100W if they want to become anything like the GFS depictions but most likely TCG will get delayed and the GFS/GEFS will downtrend accordingly.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 30 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located a few hundred miles offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

[Teban54]

We will see whether future Barbara will recapture her 2019 beauty. Probably not if we follow the recent Euro solutions, but may have a chance if GFS is right this time.

[cycloneye]

I am a little surprised of the fast start of the EPAC 2025 season given the expectations that it would not be very active per NOAA Outlook. if the future system develops like GFS and ECMWF, the ACE will be plenty.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 30 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located a few hundred miles offshore the coast of
southwestern and west-central Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Kingarabian]

We will see whether future Barbara will recapture her 2019 beauty. Probably not if we follow the recent Euro solutions, but may have a chance if GFS is right this time.

https://i.postimg.cc/5yBxXCzW/1920px-Barbara-2019-07-02-2145-Z.jpg

I'm baffled that it wasn't declared a Cat.5 at its peak. Beautiful storm.

[Hurricane2022]

I am a little surprised of the fast start of the EPAC 2025 season given the expectations that it would not be very active per NOAA Outlook. if the future system develops like GFS and ECMWF, the ACE will be plenty.

2010 also had a very fast start

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Euro ensembles are very active with the NHC 30% AOI and maybe another one?

[Yellow Evan]

We will see whether future Barbara will recapture her 2019 beauty. Probably not if we follow the recent Euro solutions, but may have a chance if GFS is right this time.

https://i.postimg.cc/5yBxXCzW/1920px-Barbara-2019-07-02-2145-Z.jpg

I'm baffled that it wasn't declared a Cat.5 at its peak. Beautiful storm.

SAB infamously fixed a 6.5 for an embedded W.

Somehow not even the strongest Barbara imo - honor goes to the 1983 version.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form by the middle part of next
week offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward at
around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin, located a little more than 100 miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form by the middle part of next
week offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward at
around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Kingarabian]

Both Euro and GFS solutions aren't supportive of intense systems. Euro has delayed development meaning it reaches cooler water quicker. GFS has two systems that hug the coast and would allow land interaction and dry air to limit development.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[StormWeather]

I am a little surprised of the fast start of the EPAC 2025 season given the expectations that it would not be very active per NOAA Outlook. if the future system develops like GFS and ECMWF, the ACE will be plenty.

Well it is a complete 180 from last year, that’s for sure.