2025 ATL hurricane season is here

[TallyTracker]

The anticipation is mounting!

Ultimately I think it will be mid-late June before anything forms. That’s a gut feel rather than anything scientific. I do think peak season will be a bit exciting though. The cooler Atlantic MDR could favor more late bloomers which is concerning similar to what we saw in 2005 (no where near the activity levels though).

[cycloneye]

The second wave of 2025 has been introduced but not where many would think. Is at EPAC.

[StormWeather]

In the EPAC of all places?

[StormWeather]

The second wave of 2025 has been introduced but not where many would think. Is at EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/71SjFyD.gif

If it’s all the way in the EPAC, then we could assume that this is actually the first wave as the waves transit the Atlantic and into the Pacific. I tried to trace the wave’s convective activity back to Africa. I don’t think I was successful but there are thunderstorms off of Africa on May 9th.

[cycloneye]

Wave #3 has been introduced at 06z.

A tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa early this
morning. The wave extends from 00N to 13N with axis near 17W,
moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
14N between 12W and 20W.

[ouragans]

Wave #3 has been introduced at 06z.

A tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa early this
morning. The wave extends from 00N to 13N with axis near 17W,
moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
14N between 12W and 20W.

https://i.imgur.com/XX48JxO.jpeg

So you consider the EPAC wave as wave #2?

[cycloneye]

Wave #3 has been introduced at 06z.

A tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa early this
morning. The wave extends from 00N to 13N with axis near 17W,
moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
14N between 12W and 20W.

https://i.imgur.com/XX48JxO.jpeg

So you consider the EPAC wave as wave #2?

Yes.

[ouragans]

Wave #4 is out

The axis of a tropical wave is near 16W, S of 17N, moving W of 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N E of 19W.

[cycloneye]

The 2025 season has arrived so happy tracking and hopefully all go out to sea.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Welcome to Hurricane Season 2025!! This week, we need to watch off the Southeast coast of the US. Models are hinting at something forming from the tail end of a front. Should be interesting to see.

[cycloneye]

Here is the long TWO to start the season that includes general information of the products, the names pronunciations but without any disturbace or area of interest.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2025 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Andrea AN-dree uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zoh
Barry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suh
Chantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor
Dexter DEHK-ster Olga OAL-guh
Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-lo
Fernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien se-BAS-tee-en
Humberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuh
Imelda ee-MEHL-dah Van van
Jerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-dee
Karen KAIR-ren

A full list of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone names and
pronunciations can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_ ... e_atlc.pdf

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM,
7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the
threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land
areas within 72 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three",
etc.).

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches
or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. It can also be used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of
a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be
issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC,
and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and
graphical products can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Produc ... iption.pdf.
New and updated products for the 2025 season can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Pr ... s_2025.pdf.

You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via
X when select National Hurricane Center products are issued.
Information about our Atlantic X feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is
available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/socialmedia/.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[skillz305]

I’m back for 2025! Looking forward to tracking some systems! Hopefully none come into central Florida this year. Milton was insane last year with the tornados.

[cycloneye]

In case those infamous season cancel posts begin to pop up, here is the word from NHC.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1933960095311741322



@NHC_Atlantic
June 14: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, with tropical cyclone development not expected over the next week.

The lack of early-season activity isn’t unusual. On average, the first named storm of the season forms around June 20. In fact, between 1991–2020 (the period we use to define what's "normal"), the first storm didn’t form until July or even August in 8 out of the 30 years—roughly a quarter of the time.

As always, stay informed by checking http://hurricanes.gov for the latest updates.

[cycloneye]

Here is a good newsletter from Michel Lowery about how the fast start of the EPAC is not a sign that is going to be hyperactive. He also elaborates on the NATL side about the sal etc.

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/a- ... -hurricane

[cycloneye]

Here we are on June 19th, and the NATL is very quiet while the EPAC is roaring and looks like more activity may form in the next few days there. On average one named storm has formed in this basin, and right now ACE is at 1.7 on the average for this date per CSU but this season continues to be at 0. In 2024, Alberto formed on the 19th and then came the surprise when Beryl formed on June 28th over 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands and later became the powerful hurricane that we know happened. But this season so far has the indications that June will end without a named storm and July does not look too promising if you see the climate models. Ok, I will stop here. waiting for a good discussion and analysis from the members.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1935778856453235189

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1935778856453235189

The fact that 2004 is at the top of this list should be a reminder that how early the first storm forms does not determine overall seasonal activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1935778856453235189

The fact that 2004 is at the top of this list should be a reminder that how early the first storm forms does not determine overall seasonal activity.

Not to mention 1998, as well as 1985 (which was a relatively active season). Also interesting tidbit about what the top 4 seasons, however different otherwise, share in common: the first named storm, or whatever named storm came right after the first named storm, ended up becoming a Category 3 or higher hurricane.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1936068000936849553

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1936462711895867873