Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

[chaser1]

Now, some of my own predictions:

• A crossover storm between Atlantic and EPAC that achieves Cat 5 intensity in both basins
• Another major hurricane landfall in Georgia (last MH landfall was 1898, last H landfall was David 1979)
• A tropical or subtropical landfall in New Hampshire or Maine
• The fifth CONUS Cat 5 landfall
• A fully tropical system over the Great Lakes (Alberto 2018 came close)
• A strong hurricane making landfall in two or more consecutive islands in Lesser Antilles between Barbuda and Grenada: taking a north-south track similar to Tammy 2023, but at much higher intensity and directly over the islands
• A major hurricane landfall in South America (whether it's from the Caribbean or South Atlantic)
• A major hurricane landfall on Cabo Verde islands
• A Cat 4+ hurricane in the Caribbean in a moderate or strong non-Modoki El Nino
• Another tropical cyclone landfall in Panama (the only one on record is Martha 1969)
• A tropical depression that forms over Africa while still inland

God help us when "....A fully tropical system over the Great Lakes occurs...." LOL!

[ncforecaster89]

I think a sustained 200 mph hurricane in the Atlantic Basin may happen if these extreme SST's continue...

It’s likely that the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 had a MSW of 175 kt (200 mph) when it struck the Fl Keys. If not, it was certainly stronger than its current official estimate (160 kt/185 mph) and significantly stronger than Dorian.

[crownweather]

I fully expect to see a Category 3 or even a low end Category 4 hurricane to make landfall on Long Island, NY and Southern New England in my lifetime (I turn 51 in August). This hurricane would be similar to the 1815 and 1938 hurricanes in strength. Would be the most expensive natural disasters in US history.

[WeatherBoy2000]

A cat 5 making a direct landfall in a major US city (Miami, Tampa, New Orleans, Houston, etc).

Another major hurricane landfall in New England

A storm more intense than Wilma in the Atlantic and/or a storm more intense than Typhoon Tip worldwide

A fully tropical storm or hurricane hitting Europe or North Africa.

[NotAHurricane]

A cat 3 hitting Atlantic Canada. :|

Fiona was not that far off and our water is getting warmer.

[hurricaneCW]

Amazingly the thing that will never occur in our lifetime is a non-season season where no tropical system forms or if I want to be generous a season where no hurricane forms.

[Hurricanehink]

Now, some of my own predictions:

• A fully tropical system over the Great Lakes (Alberto 2018 came close)

God help us when "....A fully tropical system over the Great Lakes occurs...." LOL!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Lake_Huron_cyclone - the closest ever recorded!

[HurricaneRyan]

A hurricane reaching Southern California fully tropical. I don't think Hilary will be the last time we get threatened as climate changes

[mixedDanilo.E]

For sure I expect in my lifetime - a major hurricane making landfall in New England or the mid-atlantic, and boy is it a ticking time bomb before it happens.

[al78]

Also I think a fully tropical hurricane will make landfall in Ireland at some point in the next 5-10 years.

That is impossible, the sea temperatures around Ireland are way too cold to support a fully tropical hurricane.

As it is, the UK/Ireland can get plenty of weather drama from extra-tropical windstorms which at their worst can have impacts equivalent to a low end hurricane.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xykB0j8FKQA

[al78]

Amazingly the thing that will never occur in our lifetime is a non-season season where no tropical system forms or if I want to be generous a season where no hurricane forms.

There was such a season in the early 20th century. 2013 tried its best but two low-end hurricanes formed. How about 2013 suppressing combined with a huge El Nino, frequent upper-level wave breaking and strong SAL outbreaks?

[MadaTheConquistador]

Here are mine:

A Pacific hurricane crossing over to the Atlantic side. (AND keeping its original name and not getting a name on the Atlantic side)
Tampa getting a direct hit from a major hurricane. (Milton came pretty close to achieving that feat)
A November C5 hurricane. (Iota was originally classified as a C5, but was downgraded to C4)
Georgia getting a direct hit from a hurricane.
Another Beryl-like storm, aka another C5 in July. Or even a May or June C5!
Panama getting a direct hit from a hurricane.
Western Africa (Mauritania, Senegal, etc.) getting hit by a hurricane.
NY getting another hurricane. (I am predicting it'll be a mixture of Sandy and Helene, where it'll cause a whole bunch of flooding at landfall AND inland, and I'm talking a place like Buffalo)

[Category5Kaiju]

Here are the ones I'm pretty confident about.

- Another sub-900 mbar storm, maybe even one that is 890 mbar or lower.
- A Category 4+ hit on SE Florida.
- A Category 3+ hit on the Mid-Atlantic/New England.
- A storm that rivals or surpasses Irma or Ivan's ACE.
- A November Category 5 like the 1932 hurricane.
- Another July Category 5 (As tempting as it may sound especially after witnessing Beryl, I do think we may need to wait a while to see a theoretical Atlantic June or May Category 5 since those two months are arguably the most climatologically hostile for significant storms, and it'll take much more than ultra-warm waters as you're probably also going to need a freak combination of extremely favorable upper-level wind factors, moisture levels, etc. to generate such a powerful storm that early in the calendar year).

For the EPAC, there is one particular scenario that I can see unfolding in the near or distant future and one that would have extreme ramifications: a Category 3+ strike on the Hawaiian Islands, especially Oahu. We came extremely close to this nightmare scenario with Lane in 2018, but a full-on, Iniki-like path into Oahu would be terrifying but also something that could totally be possible if we had a robust El Nino and proper steering.

[Yellow Evan]

A Category 4 or eventually a 5 by 20N 40-45W or 20N 130W or 25N 165E. In a warming climate, the outer tropics will have a higher ceiling than they do now as the increase from say 26C SSTs to 28C SSTs.

[Stormybajan]

Probably wont happen when im alive but I assume these WILL occur at some point in Atlantic History:
1. Recreation of The Great Hurricane of 1780, a long lived category 5 in early-mid October that smashes into the southern Antilles and causes devastating death and destruction.

2. Three Major Hurricanes active at the same time, I assume 2017 when Katia, Jose and Irma were raging was the closest we've seen to this .

3. Two category 5 hurricanes active in the Atlantic on the same advisory. (Irma 165 mph - Jose 155 mph Sept 9th once again were the closest we've ever gotten to this and have shown us it IS possible)

4. Major Hurricane directly making landfall on Trinidad

[MadaTheConquistador]

A couple more I have:

Northeastern or Central Florida getting a direct hit from a major hurricane. (Dorian came close IIRC)
A major hurricane hitting the Dominican Republic.
A major hurricane hitting New England.
A fully tropical storm hitting Europe.
Delaware, Maryland, or Virginia getting a direct hit from a hurricane.
Hawaii getting hit by a major.
Katrina and Harvey get surpassed as costliest storm.

And just for fun, regarding some of the names of the list:

Another third-gen name getting retired. (E.g., Martin)
Isaac finally gets retired. (For some reason my gut is telling me 2030 will be Isaac's last year)
"M" named storms will get retired as much as "I" named storms since there appears to be an "M" curse as well.
A "V" named storm gets retired.
Another name getting retired after only one use within the next decade. (Milton is the latest example of this)

[Ulf]

For the Western Pacific basin, a super typhoon directly hitting Shanghai.

Almost happened last year with Bebinca but that it did not strengthen anywhere near as anticipated.

[kevin]

Speaking of impactful landfalls in the WPac, I'll also add a super typhoon / cat 5 making a direct landfall in the Macau / Hong Kong region. As far as I could find this has never happened in the recorded database, the only 3 MH landfalls in the region are (according to the NOAA database):

Rita (1953) = 125 kt (just north of Hong Kong)
Ruby (1964) = 120 kt (Macau landfall)
Vincente (2012) = 115 kt (just west of Macau)

The closest a cat 5 typhoon has ever gotten to Hong Kong was Rammasun in 2014 which was 250 miles (400 km) SW of Hong Kong.

And I also feel like more highly impactful landfalls in Mexico are realistic with the warmer waters. The most intense landfall in Veracruz has been beaten twice in the last 15 years (Karl in 2010 and now Grace in 2021) So I'll say Grace being beaten as the strongest landfall in Veracruz. Similarly, the 1959 Mexico hurricane being beaten for the most intense landfall in Manzanillo.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'll add another one. A Category 5 hurricane that happens in late July/very early August. Interestingly enough, no recorded Category 5 hurricane ever attained such intensity anytime between the dates of July 17 and August 4 (Emily's Category 5 status happened on July 16, and Allen's Category 5 status happened on August 5-9). I'm willing to bet that we will eventually see a Category 5 storm that defies this dead period.

[Fancy1002]

I refuse to die until I see Hurricane Phoenix. We came relatively close with Charley, Ian and Milton.