2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

Well, I'm not enough of a GFS fan-boy to bet the farm on it , but if I had to hedge on a winner for the cruddy weather award for that time frame - I'd put a large circle around the West and Northwest Caribbean.

[xironman]

Run to run consistency and not changing the time frame

[BobHarlem]

6z still showing it


Euro operation doesn't really see it, but several Euro ensembles do:


and the 0z gfs ensembles


Nothing on the canadian or its ensembles.

[wxman57]

GFS is all by itself in developing a storm. Zero support from EC, CMC, or ICON. I forecast TCs all around the world, and I can tell you that the GFS does this in every single basin. It's much worse than the "old" Canadian model in developing spurious storms and it's always WAY too strong with the intensity.

[DunedinDave]

And of course, meteorologists here in Clearwater scaring people with the GFS model saying something big could be brewing for next weekend. Now everyone’s on alert. Yet there’s not another model that even calls for a thunderstorm down in the Caribbean next weekend.

[wxman57]

Was just watching a Disney vlog and it was mentioned that there is a storm developing in the Caribbean! Uh, no, there is no storm developing in the Caribbean. 12Z model runs are in, and the GFS is the ONLY model even hinting at development in the Caribbean. It's almost certainly wrong.

[MGC]

If I recall correctly didn't the GFS forecast a similar scenario either last year or the year before? Several runs in a row and eventually things just faded out. Of course a blind squirrel........MGC

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1928899830392188991

[MetroMike]

I guess the MJO moving over the basin means nothing then.

[Stratton23]

Thats not to say something couldnt form in the caribbean or in the gulf, but that would be after the 10th or so of june when the MJO moves into the atlantic basin, GFS is jumping the gun too early, but I think the window for development does open up starting after the first week of june

[WeatherBoy2000]

Thats not to say something couldnt form in the caribbean or in the gulf, but that would be after the 10th or so of june when the MJO moves into the atlantic basin, GFS is jumping the gun too early, but I think the window for development does open up starting after the first week of june

Yeah there's still a solid signal on the eps after the 10th, the gefs/gfs isn't completely alone on Atlantic development.

[floridasun]

all this youtuder showing gfs having hurricane coming issues that only one showing we need other models join but not yet

[chaser1]

I guess the MJO moving over the basin means nothing then.

I agree with you. Take the MJO out of the equation AND no model support, then I'd be more apt to disregard GFS solution. More than anything else, I'm keeping an eye on the other Global models to see if/when their 500 mb forcast begins to show some signal originating from Central America and into the Caribbean. If so, that should start occurring fairly soon considering that the GFS has sub 1000 millibars in roughly 180 hours

[Stormcenter]

Oh no not a NOLA hit on the 18 run!

[Stormcenter]

Oh no not a NOLA hit on the GFS 18 run!

[mitchell]

Several of the GFS runs, including the 18z that brings a strong hurricane into the central Gulf, look odd with the genesis of the storm. The way it shifts between systems in the PAC and Caribbean in the development phase. Almost like it's not sure which basis the development takes hold.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Outside of the GFS storm, I'm noticing a surface through off the SE coast on some models that spins up into a weak low. There are hints of it on the Euro, CMC, UKMET and ICON, and there is also a modest EPS signal. Ironically, it appears the GFS is the only one of them not showing at least something out of this lol. But I think it's worth monitoring given models tend to play catch-up with these small developments.

https://i.ibb.co/wZqNQKmB/ecmwf-z850-vort-seus-fh72-162.gif
https://i.ibb.co/gF9rP2Vr/ccfaefda-21f5-4418-900c-74adeac84a2d.gif
https://i.ibb.co/jvs7gWPN/floop-icon-2025053012-850hv-swatl.gif
https://i.ibb.co/gZzFJwm9/floop-ukmo-global-2025053112-850hv-swatl.gif
https://i.ibb.co/93vNZM8J/ecens-2025-05-31-12-Z-240-45-328-273-509-28-102-310-309-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Can mods remove this please? Seems my embeds aren't working, I'm gonna have to make a new post

[cycloneye]

Outside of the GFS storm, I'm noticing a surface through off the SE coast on some models that spins up into a weak low. There are hints of it on the Euro, CMC, UKMET and ICON, and there is also a modest EPS signal. Ironically, it appears the GFS is the only one of them not showing at least something out of this lol. But I think it's worth monitoring given models tend to play catch-up with these small developments.

https://i.ibb.co/wZqNQKmB/ecmwf-z850-vort-seus-fh72-162.gif
https://i.ibb.co/gF9rP2Vr/ccfaefda-21f5-4418-900c-74adeac84a2d.gif
https://i.ibb.co/jvs7gWPN/floop-icon-2025053012-850hv-swatl.gif
https://i.ibb.co/gZzFJwm9/floop-ukmo-global-2025053112-850hv-swatl.gif
https://i.ibb.co/93vNZM8J/ecens-2025-05-31-12-Z-240-45-328-273-509-28-102-310-309-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Can mods remove this please? Seems my embeds aren't working, I'm gonna have to make a new post

Deleited.

[chaser1]

Round and round it goes - where GFS go's next, nobody knows LOL. I'll guess Mobile AL @ 0Z

[OuterBanker]

0Z North on Naples along the east coast.
06 SAME AS 0Z
12Z North of Naples and up the Apps.
18Z Into NOLA as a cat 3 up Ms valley.

That's just todays runs.

GFS just loves early season CAG's.