2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Nimbus]

0Z North on Naples along the east coast.
06 SAME AS 0Z
12Z North of Naples and up the Apps.
18Z Into NOLA as a cat 3 up Ms valley.

That's just todays runs.

GFS just loves early season CAG's.

Thought it might just be hurricane season awareness or something but The GFS will either not verify and go poof or the other models will have to start showing something pretty soon as we get into the middle of this week.

[StPeteMike]

Several of the GFS runs, including the 18z that brings a strong hurricane into the central Gulf, look odd with the genesis of the storm. The way it shifts between systems in the PAC and Caribbean in the development phase. Almost like it's not sure which basis the development takes hold.

This is pretty typical with GFS in the early season and the Central American Gyre. Not surprisingly, as the CAG normally spits out multiple weak vortices and it all depends on what one has the best environment and furthest one away from the other vortices to get going without being impacted.

We should be in the range by Monday to really determine if this is a phantom storm or if other models start jumping in on further development. Water temps are around 86 F in the area that GFS keeps placing the point of organizing, so it’s not out of the realm to think something can form…. it’s just GFS against everything at this moment.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Ok, retrying this post with a different image hosting site...

Regardless of whether or not the GFS verifies with the Caribbean/Gulf thing, in the shorter term I'm actually more interested in what appears to be a surface trough spinning up off the SE coast/near the Bahamas on most of the guidance. GFS just recently joined in on this idea for 00z, and the CMC and ICON have had it prior to that. There was also a modest EPS signal at 12z (have to see what the 00z operational shows). Something to monitor in the coming week perhaps, especially since models tend to play catch-up with these sorts of small-scale developments.

[StPeteMike]

There seems to be a decent amount of model support for a weak TS to spin up just off E FL in about 4-5 days. I know these storms, often weak, do seem to slip under the radar because models will barely show them compared to the GFS modelcane we are seeing 12 days out.

Though I don’t think it will amount to anything more to some swells and rain along the coast, I would not be surprised to something come together within the next week in that area.

[StPeteMike]

Ok, retrying this post with a different image hosting site...

Regardless of whether or not the GFS verifies with the Caribbean/Gulf thing, in the shorter term I'm actually more interested in what appears to be a surface trough spinning up off the SE coast/near the Bahamas on most of the guidance. GFS just recently joined in on this idea for 00z, and the CMC and ICON have had it prior to that. There was also a modest EPS signal at 12z (have to see what the 00z operational shows). Something to monitor in the coming week perhaps, especially since models tend to play catch-up with these sorts of small-scale developments.

https://i.imgur.com/OHccQQd.gif
https://i.imgur.com/2gRthrO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/lrddZVE.gif
https://i.imgur.com/PuLkXI5.png

Was SLOWLY typing when you posted this. Seem to be in the same page.

[jlauderdal]

Ok, retrying this post with a different image hosting site...

Regardless of whether or not the GFS verifies with the Caribbean/Gulf thing, in the shorter term I'm actually more interested in what appears to be a surface trough spinning up off the SE coast/near the Bahamas on most of the guidance. GFS just recently joined in on this idea for 00z, and the CMC and ICON have had it prior to that. There was also a modest EPS signal at 12z (have to see what the 00z operational shows). Something to monitor in the coming week perhaps, especially since models tend to play catch-up with these sorts of small-scale developments.

https://i.imgur.com/OHccQQd.gif
https://i.imgur.com/2gRthrO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/lrddZVE.gif
https://i.imgur.com/PuLkXI5.png

We finally have a rainy season in SEFL. Interesting 3 days ahead as the front sits and possibly spawns something of interest, meanwhile, we might bust the drought. As far as the GFS goes, it has pushed the system west towards New Orleans, at least it isnt underestimating the ridge now like the GFS likes to do,

[tolakram]

The GFS is moving the storm west AND later in time. Yesterday there was a storm near Florida at 222 hours, now nothing. At 276 hours another storm in the gulf heading north.

[MarioProtVI]

The GFS is moving the storm west AND later in time. Yesterday there was a storm near Florida at 222 hours, now nothing. At 276 hours another storm in the gulf heading north.

Classic GFS chasing random ghost vorticity

[DunedinDave]

Over/under on when GFS goes from a full blown hurricane to absolutely nothing.

I will say 6z on June 2 (before noon Monday).

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Ok, retrying this post with a different image hosting site...

Regardless of whether or not the GFS verifies with the Caribbean/Gulf thing, in the shorter term I'm actually more interested in what appears to be a surface trough spinning up off the SE coast/near the Bahamas on most of the guidance. GFS just recently joined in on this idea for 00z, and the CMC and ICON have had it prior to that. There was also a modest EPS signal at 12z (have to see what the 00z operational shows). Something to monitor in the coming week perhaps, especially since models tend to play catch-up with these sorts of small-scale developments.

https://i.imgur.com/OHccQQd.gif
https://i.imgur.com/2gRthrO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/lrddZVE.gif
https://i.imgur.com/PuLkXI5.png

Add UKMET to the list

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 33.5N 76.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.06.2025 33.5N 76.7W WEAK
12UTC 06.06.2025 33.5N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.06.2025 33.9N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.06.2025 37.3N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.06.2025 38.8N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.06.2025 41.2N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1929208882988986634

[Stratton23]

regardless of the GFS, the caribbean/ gulf look like a hotspot for development after the 10th with the MJO moving in, I suspect we will see models respond to this change as we get closer in time

[cycloneye]

DorkyMcDorkface, the 12z Euro.

[Kingarabian]

Strung out weak vort showing on the charts near the Bahamas/SE Florida. Won't start to consolidate until about 48 hours if the models are right.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

DorkyMcDorkface, the 12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/yRqZ8E9.jpeg

EPS followed suit with an uptick as well

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1929314602619125924

[captainbarbossa19]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1929314602619125924

This definitely is more near-term and deserves monitoring at the minimum.

[Stratton23]

While the GFS isnt going to verify with its fantasy storm that it still hasnt let go of yet, I will say the upper level pattern its showing is one you hope doesnt happen during this season, land falling tropical system with two ridges building on either side cause the system to stall out, just one model output, but thats definitely a steering pattern you dont want to see showing up with any sort of tropical system anywhere along the us coast

[Stormcenter]

While the GFS isnt going to verify with its fantasy storm that it still hasnt let go of yet, I will say the upper level pattern its showing is one you hope doesnt happen during this season, land falling tropical system with two ridges building on either side cause the system to stall out, just one model output, but thats definitely a steering pattern you dont want to see showing up with any sort of tropical system anywhere along the us coast

How do you know for sure the GFS won’t verify?

[Stratton23]

While the GFS isnt going to verify with its fantasy storm that it still hasnt let go of yet, I will say the upper level pattern its showing is one you hope doesnt happen during this season, land falling tropical system with two ridges building on either side cause the system to stall out, just one model output, but thats definitely a steering pattern you dont want to see showing up with any sort of tropical system anywhere along the us coast

How do you know for sure the GFS won’t verify?

Because it has no support from the EPS/GEPS ensembles and the op CMC and Euro runs dont have anything. The GFS has a very high false alarm rate of spinning up tropical systems in the SW caribbean, its actually a bias the model has.