Low pressure area to form off Southeast Coast

[DorkyMcDorkface]

1. Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of
days. If the system remains offshore, the low could gradually
develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this
week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Teban54]

First AOI in the Atlantic for this season. Here we go!

If this develops, it's the classic early season stuff with (sub)tropical storms moving NE off the East Coast, like Debby and Ernesto 2018, Dolly and Edouard 2020, Bill 2021, and Alex 2022. Many of these years have anomalous warmth in the western subtropics, and then went on to have a large quantity of storms later in the season, with a chunk of storm names in the subtropics (sometimes even ACE, as in 2018 and 2021).

Current indicators for 2025 also point to warm subtropics. While early season activity are usually not strongly associated with peak season, I do wonder if this can be a weak sign of what's to come.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JonathanBelles/status/1929640179540938818

[BobHarlem]

The precursor to this thing is already causing havoc in South Florida.

 https://x.com/cfhc/status/1929636888253813222



 https://x.com/SouthFloridaWX/status/1929635832799154188

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast along a frontal boundary
during the next couple of days. If the low remains offshore, it
could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics
later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Stormlover70]

Low chances are still chances. Something to watch.

[cycloneye]

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 33.0N 79.0W
FOR 05/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near the
southeastern U.S. coast along a frontal boundary during the next
couple of days. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
conducive for the low to gradually develop some subtropical or
tropical characteristics later this week if it forms or moves
offshore the coast. The low is forecast to move east of North
Carolina over the Atlantic by late Friday or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Chenard

[ChrisH-UK]

Here is the are in question from where if anything forms. As you can see there is a decent amount of shear all over the place. The models are showing that the lower level vorticity will be over the atlantic coast and the upper level vorticity will be over Georgia. This and the shear I would say not much will happen.

[cycloneye]

Down to 0%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
Showers and thunderstorms located over the Florida peninsula,
the southeastern U.S. coast, the northwestern Bahamas, and the
adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters are associated with a broad trough
of low pressure. A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to
form from this system on Thursday, but it is becoming increasingly
likely that this development will occur inland over South Carolina
and North Carolina. As a result, the low's chances of acquiring
subtropical or tropical characteristics have diminished. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall could cause some flash flooding
along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast today and on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

No more mention.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[DorkyMcDorkface]

No more mention.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

I finally beat everyone to the punch in initiating an AOI thread and it's a nothingburger, lol. Maybe next time...