2025 EPAC Season

[Sciencerocks]

I am a little surprised of the fast start of the EPAC 2025 season given the expectations that it would not be very active per NOAA Outlook. if the future system develops like GFS and ECMWF, the ACE will be plenty.

Well it is a complete 180 from last year, that’s for sure.

I think both basins could be near normal. A pretty neutral enso and sst's and upper level pattern over the Atlantic doesn't support a super active season but ok like season...2011, 1999, 1988, 1979, 1958, etc.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Kingarabian]

Models less enthusiastic compared to 48 hours ago.

[cycloneye]

Euro is enthusiastic for another one on day 10.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is enthusiastic for another one on day 10.

https://i.imgur.com/YsD94RF.png

Weak disturbances compared to earlier

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as it
moves generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian EPS are very bullish at EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian EPS are very bullish at EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/zu31Itc.jpeg

Latest runs show an outbreak of weak tropical storms but it's better than nothing.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[StormWeather]

So we get another high chance AOI. This season is already well ahead of last year.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Satellite surface wind data indicate than a broad area of low
pressure has formed a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico and is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

GFS making it a hurricane whole the Euro keeps it broad and weak.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore
of the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

And now there are two AOI'S.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Two areas of low pressure are forecast to form from a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are currently located
several hundred miles south of southern Mexico. One low is expected
to form on the east side of an elongated trough during the next day
or so a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A second low pressure area is forecast to form on the western
side of the elongated trough south of Mexico in a couple of days.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Jelsema

[StormWeather]

And now there are two AOI'S.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Two areas of low pressure are forecast to form from a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are currently located
several hundred miles south of southern Mexico. One low is expected
to form on the east side of an elongated trough during the next day
or so a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A second low pressure area is forecast to form on the western
side of the elongated trough south of Mexico in a couple of days.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Jelsema

https://i.imgur.com/PS8JblQ.png

https://i.imgur.com/6jca7zp.png

https://i.imgur.com/0Un48WZ.png

The models have been shown the now designated 0/30 for a few days now.

[Kingarabian]

If the 12z Euro is right we could see 3 more named systems before July.

[StormWeather]

If the 12z Euro is right we could see 3 more named systems before July.

So we could be at the letter E by July then if the Euro is right. Dang. Last year hadn’t even gotten started yet by July 1.