2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Interesting ssta's configuration so far in 2025.

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1928054783920804058

[mixedDanilo.E]

MDR has cooled off since the beginning of the month when it warmed up pretty significantly...

[Hurricane2022]

Will 2025 also have a period of Absolute Peace in Oct/Nov?
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1928510927747334559

[chaser1]

And, here we are folks - HAPPY HURRICANE SEASON EVE!
Last chance for your entry into the STK 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Contest https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124646
..... and a shot at the $1 Million dollar prize ( Well, there is no Million Dollars, but who's gonna stop you from bragging rights and the little "white lie" you tell your friends about the $$)

Be safe everybody.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Will 2025 also have a period of Absolute Peace in Oct/Nov?
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1928510927747334559

In another thread by Andy Hazelton, he listed 2021 along with 1989 and 2000 as his top three sst analogs for 2025. I looked into them and all three had pretty quiet late seasons with no major hurricanes.

[chaser1]

Will 2025 also have a period of Absolute Peace in Oct/Nov?
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1928510927747334559

In another thread by Andy Hazelton, he listed 2021 along with 1989 and 2000 as his top three sst analogs for 2025. I looked into them and all three had pretty quiet late seasons with no major hurricanes.

It's anybody's guess if or "how early" the season will wind down, but I personally would never equate SST's alone as a key indicator for such to occur (**unless of course SST's were to verify below normal in the Western Basin where Climo typically suggests development to occur). Although my own guess is for less activity than most others anticipate, if the GFS verifies with a storm/hurricane pushing north out of the Caribbean... then I would anticipate the season to more or less end similarly with an October or November threat.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I guess the main question at this point is, is the MDR and open tropical Atlantic really that "cool" per se, or have expectations sort of been a *tad bit* off due to the uncanny, record-breaking warmth that 2023 and 2024 displayed?

[LarryWx]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2025/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20250601.png

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/socd/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/sst-trend-7d/png/2025/ct5km_sst-trend-7d_v3.1_global_20250601.png

So I guess the main question at this point is, is the MDR and open tropical Atlantic really that "cool" per se, or have expectations sort of been a *tad bit* off due to the uncanny, record-breaking warmth that 2023 and 2024 displayed?

The area 20-60W/10-20N is much cooler than it was in 2024 and sig. cooler than ‘23, but it’s still barely above the 1991-2020 avg per OISST as of June 1.

https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/tropATLsst.png

This link is to a date sensitive graph and thus will keep changing.

[Blown Away]

upload pictures url

Latest CanSIPS showing more rainfall over the SE CONUS and Caribbean Islands during the heart of the hurricane season...

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1930624747382964591

[StormWeather]

So if that pans out, 2025 might not have the same issue that 2021 had?

When was the last time we were neutral/cool neutral ENSO with an ATL Nino?

[cycloneye]

JB throwing in the towel for an active season, but watch for homegrowns.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1930618103815168493

[Stratton23]

way too soon to throw in the towel, and no offense to joe, but saying its probably going to be a nothing burger season when the true hurricane season starts in august is extremely premature, all it takes is one storm to be a bad season for someone

[cycloneye]

Mike Lowry has a good newsletter for all to read about the sst's in MDR.

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/at ... led-so-far

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1930646315228074387

[WeatherBoy2000]

way too soon to throw in the towel, and no offense to joe, but saying its probably going to be a nothing burger season when the true hurricane season starts in august is extremely premature, all it takes is one storm to be a bad season for someone

Imo he tends to be overly hyperbolic in his posts. He overhyped last year, even more so than compared to many other mets/climate forecasters. Plus, according yconsor's thread above, the Atlantic/mdr may not be as unfavorable as some people have been saying.

[Pas_Bon]

It’s well-established that an active EPAC tends to have the inverse effect on the Atlantic.

If the EPAC fires up in a big way - as global modeling suggests - it would likely put a damper on Atlantic cyclogenesis. Here’s to hoping that adage holds true.

[LarryWx]

The June 2025 Euro seasonal outlook for the basin is ~same as May 2025 with a forecast of 110% of 1993-2024 average ACE. This compares to June 2024’s 200%. I still think that’s probably somewhat underdone but it is significantly less active than Euro’s June 2024 seasonal outlook, including near the CONUS/NE Caribbean.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The June 2025 Euro seasonal outlook for the basin is ~same as May 2025 with a forecast of 110% of 1993-2024 average ACE. This compares to June 2024’s 200%. I still think that’s probably somewhat underdone but it is significantly less active than Euro’s June 2024 seasonal outlook, including near the CONUS/NE Caribbean.

Last year's forecast had a solid Niña (although it ultimately never really materialized) and very strong +AMO signature. This year both indicators are significantly more muddled so it makes sense as to why the forecast is quite a bit lower.

[mixedDanilo.E]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1930624747382964591

I wonder if we might end up getting some decent MDR activity come august and september - and maybe something might try to spin up towards the end of this month/beginning of next month as we've been seeing over last several years.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1931346657326596530