2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure is located several hundred
miles south of southern Mexico. A low pressure system is
expected to form on the east side of this trough during the next
day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A second low pressure area is forecast to form on the western
side of the elongated trough south of Mexico in a couple of days.
Some subsequent development of this system is possible and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Jelsema

[Kingarabian]

If the 12z Euro is right we could see 3 more named systems before July.

So we could be at the letter E by July then if the Euro is right. Dang. Last year hadn’t even gotten started yet by July 1.

The CAG could easily spawn the disturbances on the other side though. Comes down to steering.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure is located several hundred
miles south of southern Mexico. A low pressure system is
expected to form on the east side of this trough during the next
day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the western side of the
elongated trough south of Mexico have become a little better
organized during the last 24 hours. A low pressure area is forecast
to form in this area during the next day or two. Subsequent
additional development of this system is possible and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little on the eastern
side of a broad trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a short-lived tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves
generally west-northwestward just off the coast of Mexico.
Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure has formed along the western side of
the elongated trough south of Mexico. Continued gradual development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

[cycloneye]

Invest 91E is up

[cycloneye]

This is the other area that NHC is watching and should be invest 92E later this afternoon. This one will track closer to the southern Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually increasing in association
with a trough of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward
just off the coast of Mexico. Interests in southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Jelsema

[cycloneye]

Two invests up in only 6 hours at this basin. Invest 92E is up

[Yellow Evan]

GFS runs are likely too aggressive with the westerlies and handling the next monsoon trough breakdown unrealistically as a result. With MJO coming around, next 10 days or so should be quite active, perhaps one of the most active periods it'll get of the entire season.

[cycloneye]

Wow, they keep comming fast. Apart from 91E and 92E, NHC highlights a new area.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[StormWeather]

Wow, they keep comming fast. Apart from 91E and 92E, NHC highlights a new area.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/UJeZbxp.png

I’m already tired boss. It hadn’t been a month yet and the EPAC is spinning up circulations like it’s a party.

[Kingarabian]

Long range Euro about 300 hours out showing a 4th system behind these 3. However the GFS it in the Caribbean.

[StPeteMike]

Wow, they keep comming fast. Apart from 91E and 92E, NHC highlights a new area.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/UJeZbxp.png

I’m already tired boss. It hadn’t been a month yet and the EPAC is spinning up circulations like it’s a party.

lol it’s reminding me of the WPAC with storms forming right behind another storm. The rest of the season will be to bomb out to match the season forecasts for the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Wow, they keep comming fast. Apart from 91E and 92E, NHC highlights a new area.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/UJeZbxp.png

I’m already tired boss. It hadn’t been a month yet and the EPAC is spinning up circulations like it’s a party.

lol it’s reminding me of the WPAC with storms forming right behind another storm. The rest of the season will be to bomb out to match the season forecasts for the EPAC.

It could happen, look at what happened during the 2010 season.

[StPeteMike]

2010 season for all basins might be a good comparison to what we can see in 2025. Quiet Pacific season, late start and quiet typhoon season, and active Atlantic season but majority of the major storms staying out to sea.

Hopefully nothing like last season with quick intensification and formation so close to landfall!

[WeatherBoy2000]

2010 season for all basins might be a good comparison to what we can see in 2025. Quiet Pacific season, late start and quiet typhoon season, and active Atlantic season but majority of the major storms staying out to sea.

Hopefully nothing like last season with quick intensification and formation so close to landfall!

The tropical Atlantic is quite a bit different compared to the 2010 currently, much cooler and the ridge is rather strong/robust. If this current pattern holds through the peak then it won't favor recurves as much. I only brought up 2010 as an extreme example of the epac shutting down after a quick start, I doubt we'll see that extreme of a shut-down again this year.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[WaveBreaking]

Vis-Red + Severe Storms RGB Sandwich image of invests 91E and 92E. 92E has much more deep convection (bright yellow and orange) over its center than 91E does.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late next week or next weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.