2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Scoreboard:

EPAC 2 now with Barbara and maybe 3 very soon with 91E and more by next weekend while the North Atlantic basin is at 0.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS not developing that 0/40 area. Has all the energy refocusing off the BOC.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, is anybody else getting this weird, grammar-error-riddled message on the NHC hurricane tracking website? Or is this just me?

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS not developing that 0/40 area. Has all the energy refocusing off the BOC.

At 12z it develops the 0/50 one as well on the other side.

[Category5Kaiju]

The EPAC has now generated more NSs than the WPAC and the Atlantic combined.

[cycloneye]

Here comes Dalila. 18z simulated GFS run has a fairly strong cane from the 0/50 AOI that looks to make landfall near Manzanillo, Mexico.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent

[Kingarabian]

12z model suite showing one more for the EPAC after the 0/60 AOI.

[Yellow Evan]

Incoming WWB should allow for cyclonic vorticity advection further south and potentially more time over favorable thermodynamics as a result.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 PM PDT:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[kevin]

Very active 00z EPS for the EPAC. Multiple members show 1 or 2 strong hurricanes and 2 members even go as low as 930 mb.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend while moving
generally west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Very active 00z EPS for the EPAC. Multiple members show 1 or 2 strong hurricanes and 2 members even go as low as 930 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/af5FhL8.png

https://i.imgur.com/vjGwRnH.png

Hi kevin. Moved your EPS post to this EPAC thread as the topic you bring is for that basin.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like what ever caused that coastal El Niño is aiding rising motion in the far eastern pacific which is aiding TCG at a rapid rate.

[Yellow Evan]

We’d be seeing lower latitude genesis if this was driven by weak trades along the equator. This may change a bit next week but for now the trade anomalies have been displaced further north.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: We’d be seeing lower latitude genesis if this was driven by weak trades along the equator. This may change a bit next week but for now the trade anomalies have been displaced further north.

Weak trades at the equator are either superceded by -VP 200 anomalies or those -VP 200 anomalies setup right after. Which is why you can have development near 10N/10S.



The cause of this outbreak in EPAC activity seems to be related to whatever mechanism that caused Nino 1+2 to warm up.

[cycloneye]

For the record of thread. 11 AM TWO:

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend while moving
generally west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.