2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[tropicwatch]

SAL is pretty dominant in the Atlantic Basin with the exception of the Caribbean.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

[cycloneye]

This will be very interesting to follow in the comming months and is the African Monsoon.

@BenNollWeather
A signal for an active African Monsoon is one of the most prominent features on new ECMWF seasonal guidance.

Storms in central Africa can be hurricane seedlings.

However, patterns of sinking air in the Atlantic may deter storms — making conditions less conducive than last year.


 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1931370061341864287

[Stratton23]

If anything, a less favorable MDR makes me more concerned because that could shift the focus of activity to the western caribbean, gulf and east coast, could be a season in which homegrown activity is the name of the game

[cycloneye]

The NMME June run for ASO is not good if you want an active season.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1931392683806724118

[Hurricane2022]

The NMME June run for ASO is not good if you want an active season.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1931392683806724118

That's great
I'm already tired of very active seasons
WE need a way less damaging version of 2022/2012

[Hurricane2022]

The NMME June run for ASO is not good if you want an active season.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1931392683806724118

That's great
I'm already tired of very active seasons
WE need a way less damaging version of 2022/2012

However....
 https://x.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1931400022588809244

[Stratton23]

I would love a quiet season , as the past few years have definitely been stressful for many across the gulf/ se US. That being said even if this is a quieter season, some of the most destructive hurricanes on record have occured in seasons that werent super active, always something to keep in mind.

[Cachondo23]

Will 2025 also have a period of Absolute Peace in Oct/Nov?
 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1928510927747334559

In another thread by Andy Hazelton, he listed 2021 along with 1989 and 2000 as his top three sst analogs for 2025. I looked into them and all three had pretty quiet late seasons with no major hurricanes.

Well, 1989 had Hugo. Everyone in the Leewards Islands, PR and Carolinas will always remember that one…

[StormWeather]

What is that big blob mass of convection in the western Caribbean Sea about?

[WaveBreaking]

What is that big blob mass of convection in the western Caribbean Sea about?

It’s being caused by divergence from an upper-level trough over Central America.

[Category5Kaiju]

Very interesting to see the discussions and murmurs of stability being an issue this year, dry precip anomalies, etc.

It remains to be seen of course, but at this point (I mean, it's early June lol) I'm still somewhat skeptical that this season is going to bust dramatically and end up being a weak, below-average year as some may suggest. My reasoning is as follows.

Sure, without the firm presence of La Nina, things get a bit murkier for activity predictions. However, the idea that we're not going to see an El Nino is, relatively speaking, a positive factor for Atlantic activity (the Atlantic wouldn't have to contend with elevated levels of shear induced by the El Nino, etc.). 1966, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2001, 2003, and 2019 all generally prove this point as active neutral years. And believe it or not, 2024 met the definition of a neutral year as it failed to display the 5 consecutive trimonthly 3.4 ENSO sst anomalies of at least 0.5 degrees C below zero.

However, one key thing I've noticed is that I'm also getting a bit of deja vu. Out of curiosity, I looked back at the 2019 and 2021 indicator threads (and 2020 to a certain extent as well); around early June, individuals took note of the relatively meager sst anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and precip anomaly maps predicting below average rainfall conditions during hurricane season in places that generally see the most activity. This led to speculation that a major, below-average season was coming up, with stability struggles and other unfavorable conditions that you could easily fathom. There was even talk of the MDR generating no significant storms during peak season (Lorenzo and Sam suggested otherwise). It somewhat feels like we're having a similar dance here as well.

I think it's important to know that the Atlantic is already warm enough to support Category 4 and Category 5 storms. Maybe it's not the warmest we've seen the Atlantic, but if upper-level conditions are favorable, then 28-29 degree C waters can easily support powerful storms. Additionally, while helpful to look at, precip anomaly maps aren't exactly bulletproof (for instance, last year, just by looking at them, you probably would've never thought that the Gulf would be so active and you probably would've thought that July and August would see a whole onslaught of storms in the Caribbean and the MDR).

Edit: I will also add that if the VP pattern over Africa holds with a very wet look, then there won't be a shortage of tropical waves and precursors this season, also giving credence to the idea that we'll likely see decent levels of activity. And if sst anomalies tell everything, then you probably would've never imagined a year like 2004 or 2017 generating more ACE and major hurricanes than a year like 2010 or 2024 that featured a blazing-hot MDR.

[chaser1]

If memory serves me correctly, recent MJO forecast for the Atlantic basin was suggesting a significant impulse for the Western basin to occur around the 2nd week of this month. That sure isn't what present MJO forecast seems to indicate. Rather then any indication of W. Basin rising motion, all I see is "MJ (n)O" conditions.

[chaser1]

Outside of whatever weak GFS signal continues to show at the end of it's "Yellow Brick Road", overall present to mid-term conditions appear largely non-conducive for tropical development. Wind shear as well as wind shear anomaly forecasts depict unfavorable conditions for early season Climo regions. Furthermore, the same can largely be said regarding atmospheric moisture. The 300mb - 700mb forecast keeps much of the Caribbean and W. Basin into the GOM fairly dry. The exception being the northeasternmost Caribbean and extreme N GOM toward the end of the forcast cycle.

Can't ever rule out some small subtropical spin-up anywhere else but signs increasingly suggest that we we'll have to wait until the last week of June or even July before the Atlantic makes a go at it.

[Cachondo23]

June looks very likely to pass on with no NS in the NATL

[WeatherBoy2000]

Outside of whatever weak GFS signal continues to show at the end of it's "Yellow Brick Road", overall present to mid-term conditions appear largely non-conducive for tropical development. Wind shear as well as wind shear anomaly forecasts depict unfavorable conditions for early season Climo regions. Furthermore, the same can largely be said regarding atmospheric moisture. The 300mb - 700mb forecast keeps much of the Caribbean and W. Basin into the GOM fairly dry. The exception being the northeasternmost Caribbean and extreme N GOM toward the end of the forcast cycle.

Can't ever rule out some small subtropical spin-up anywhere else but signs increasingly suggest that we we'll have to wait until the last week of June or even July before the Atlantic makes a go at it.

I wouldn't bet too much on July to even early August producing much of anything, the euro weeklies is showing the continuation of the dead July patten that has persisted for several years now:

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1932180448387428779

[LarryWx]

I wouldn't bet too much on July to even early August producing much of anything, the euro weeklies is showing the continuation of the dead July patten that has persisted for several years now:

Actually, July has been anything but dead in recent years vs its normally quiet climo:

2024: Cat 5 Beryl, earliest cat 5 on record (July 1st)
2023: Though not in tropics, mid July had H Don.
2022: TS Bonnie and Colin on July 1st
2021: H Elsa early July
2020: 2 H and 3 TS
2019: H Barry mid July
2018: 2H

[WeatherBoy2000]

I wouldn't bet too much on July to even early August producing much of anything, the euro weeklies is showing the continuation of the dead July patten that has persisted for several years now:

Actually, July has been anything but dead in recent years vs its normally quiet climo:

2024: Cat 5 Beryl, earliest cat 5 on record (July 1st)
2023: Though not in tropics, mid July had H Don.
2022: TS Bonnie and Colin on July 1st
2021: H Elsa early July
2020: 2 H and 3 TS
2019: H Barry mid July
2018: 2H

I didn't mean the whole month of July has been dead, but it has been common in recent years for there to be a spike in activity around the end of June through the first week of July and then for there to be an extended lull. That's the "dead July" pattern I've been referring to.

[chaser1]

I wouldn't bet too much on July to even early August producing much of anything, the euro weeklies is showing the continuation of the dead July patten that has persisted for several years now:

Actually, July has been anything but dead in recent years vs its normally quiet climo:

2024: Cat 5 Beryl, earliest cat 5 on record (July 1st)
2023: Though not in tropics, mid July had H Don.
2022: TS Bonnie and Colin on July 1st
2021: H Elsa early July
2020: 2 H and 3 TS
2019: H Barry mid July
2018: 2H

I didn't mean the whole month of July has been dead, but it has been common in recent years for there to be a spike in activity around the end of June through the first week of July and then for there to be an extended lull. That's the "dead July" pattern I've been referring to.

All I know, is "dead" seems to better describe the withered dry dead corpse of an Atlantic basin that we are presently viewing. One singular named storm alone during the month of July would equate to a 100% increase in activity. As Larry points out, recent years would suggest the greater odds of seeing a named storm in July rather than not. Even IF July produces two named storms, I still think 2025 will end somewhere between below average & average in terms of "total numbers".

In the end, ya never know though. The Euro weeklies along with other indicators could be sniffing out a quieter hurricane season such as 2000 or 2009. Those years come to mind when I think about no named storms during June and July

[WeatherBoy2000]

Actually, July has been anything but dead in recent years vs its normally quiet climo:

2024: Cat 5 Beryl, earliest cat 5 on record (July 1st)
2023: Though not in tropics, mid July had H Don.
2022: TS Bonnie and Colin on July 1st
2021: H Elsa early July
2020: 2 H and 3 TS
2019: H Barry mid July
2018: 2H

I didn't mean the whole month of July has been dead, but it has been common in recent years for there to be a spike in activity around the end of June through the first week of July and then for there to be an extended lull. That's the "dead July" pattern I've been referring to.

All I know, is "dead" seems to better describe the withered dry dead corpse of an Atlantic basin that we are presently viewing. One singular named storm alone during the month of July would equate to a 100% increase in activity. As Larry points out, recent years would suggest the greater odds of seeing a named storm in July rather than not. Even IF July produces two named storms, I still think 2025 will end somewhere between below average & average in terms of "total numbers".

In the end, ya never know though. The Euro weeklies along with other indicators could be sniffing out a quieter hurricane season such as 2000 or 2009. Those years come to mind when I think about no named storms during June and July

Since 2016 or so, it has been common for the Atlantic to literally go dead like this without even a named storm during much of July and even well into August. I'm just saying if we don't see activity by the first week of July, then we're more likely in for a truly dormant early season.

In any case, it'll be interesting if June and July doesn't produce at all this year. It's been a long time since a truly dormant early season has occurred. I think 2009 was the last, and then 2004 before that.

[Category5Kaiju]

Actually, July has been anything but dead in recent years vs its normally quiet climo:

2024: Cat 5 Beryl, earliest cat 5 on record (July 1st)
2023: Though not in tropics, mid July had H Don.
2022: TS Bonnie and Colin on July 1st
2021: H Elsa early July
2020: 2 H and 3 TS
2019: H Barry mid July
2018: 2H

I didn't mean the whole month of July has been dead, but it has been common in recent years for there to be a spike in activity around the end of June through the first week of July and then for there to be an extended lull. That's the "dead July" pattern I've been referring to.

All I know, is "dead" seems to better describe the withered dry dead corpse of an Atlantic basin that we are presently viewing. One singular named storm alone during the month of July would equate to a 100% increase in activity. As Larry points out, recent years would suggest the greater odds of seeing a named storm in July rather than not. Even IF July produces two named storms, I still think 2025 will end somewhere between below average & average in terms of "total numbers".

In the end, ya never know though. The Euro weeklies along with other indicators could be sniffing out a quieter hurricane season such as 2000 or 2009. Those years come to mind when I think about no named storms during June and July

At least since 1966, other years that come to mind where a June/July named storm (including before June 1) failed to occur include 1977, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1988, and 1992. 1980 and 2004 came very close as their first named storms didn't form until July 31.

Some of those years ended up as very inactive years. Some of them ended up as relatively active years. Interestingly, three of those years became the epitome of "it only takes one," as 1977, 1983, and 1992's first named storms also ended up becoming a destructive major hurricane.

There really isn't a shared pattern between those years as some were inactive due to the -AMO, an El Nino, etc, but one could say that they likely experienced a more hostile early season that climatology would dictate.