EPAC: BARBARA - Remnant - Discussion

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#61 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 09, 2025 6:59 pm

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#62 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 09, 2025 7:03 pm

Dry air slowly taking over.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 09, 2025 8:34 pm

No more as hurricane.

EP, 02, 2025061000, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1075W, 60, 993, TS
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#64 Postby StormWeather » Mon Jun 09, 2025 8:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:No more as hurricane.

EP, 02, 2025061000, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1075W, 60, 993, TS


Was I not allowed to post the update? Just wanted to know for future reference.
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Cyclones experienced;

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#65 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 09, 2025 8:48 pm

StormWeather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No more as hurricane.

EP, 02, 2025061000, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1075W, 60, 993, TS


Was I not allowed to post the update? Just wanted to know for future reference.


It was already posted.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#66 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 09, 2025 9:00 pm

Here are for the record the archieves of the past 4 advisories.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/BARBARA.shtml?
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#67 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 09, 2025 9:40 pm

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Barbara has been gradually decreasing in organization since earlier
today. Deep convection is rather fragmented with limited banding
features. Although thunderstorm activity could temporarily
increase tonight after the diurnal minimum, overall the system
appears to be on a weakening trend. All of the objective intensity
estimates are now below hurricane strength. A blend of subjective
Dvorak T- and C.I. numbers from TAFB gives about a 60-kt intensity
estimate, which is used for this advisory.

The cyclone continues on a northwestward track with a motion of
around 310/10 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of Barbara
should maintain this northwestward motion for a while, albeit with
some decrease in forward speed. In 36-48 hours, the system should
become a remnant low and turn westward following the shallow-layer
flow. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the
divergent track guidance and a little to the left of the previous
NHC track. This is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The storm is crossing a gradient of sea surface temperatures and
headed for cooler waters and a drier, more stable environment.
Therefore continued weakening is likely, and Barbara is expected to
become a remnant low in 36 hours. The official forecast
is below the LGEM guidance but above the dynamical models, which
suggest that the system will dissipate sooner than indicated here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.7N 107.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 20.7N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#68 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 10, 2025 4:04 am

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the
past 12 hours or so. The latest current intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt
range. Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary
satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is set to 50 kt.

Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than
before, or 310/7 kt. Barbara is forecast to continue moving
generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to
its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest. Only
very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track
forecast, which lies near the various consensus models.

The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue
moving over progressively colder water over the next day. The cold
water will cause Barbara to continue weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous
official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus.
The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the
cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with
dissipation in 36 hours. The NHC forecast follows the scenario
depicted by those models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#69 Postby TomballEd » Tue Jun 10, 2025 9:56 am

If I heard my TV right, the former Hurricane Barbara was the first hurricane of the year anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere and set a record.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#70 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 10, 2025 10:28 am

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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#71 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 10, 2025 3:38 pm

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025
200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

This afternoon's satellite presentation shows Barbara quickly
spinning down. Deep convection associated with the cyclone has
diminished considerably during the past few hours and has revealed
an exposed surface circulation well to the northeast of a
mid-level center. The initial intensity is once again lowered, to
35 kt, and is based on a blend of the various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.

Based on current convective trends and the global models, Barbara
should become a remnant low later tonight while it continues moving
over cooler waters and into a harsh atmospheric environment.

Barbara has been moving to the right of track within the peripheral
steering flow of the low- to mid-level high anchored over central
Mexico. Consequently, the initial motion is estimated to be
northward or 010/7 kt. Barbara should continue this general motion
through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast
is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory and lies close to
the ECMWF and TVCE consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 20.9N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Mora/Roberts
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Remanants - Discussion

#72 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 10, 2025 7:51 pm

Bye.

EP, 02, 2025061100, , BEST, 0, 210N, 1080W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Remnant - Discussion

#73 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 10, 2025 9:42 pm

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