EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2025061112, , BEST, 0, 92N, 965W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 150, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, ep752025 to ep932025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932025.dat

[cycloneye]

Being at a low latitude will help future Dalila to not reach the cooler waters so fast as Barbara and Cosme did.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend while
it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend while
it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2025061118, , BEST, 0, 93N, 970W, 20, 1010, DB

[Kingarabian]

Let's see if it can become something decent.

[kevin]

First run (12z) of the hurricane models for 93E.

HWRF = 977 mb / 71 kt at 96 - 99 hrs
HMON = 983 mb / 81 kt at 120 hrs
HAFS-A = 996 mb / 52 kt at 84 hrs
HAFS-B = 984 mb / 83 kt 90 - 93 hrs

Seems like the first indication is something in the range of a TS to a cat 1.

[StormWeather]

First run (12z) of the hurricane models for 93E.

HWRF = 977 mb / 71 kt at 96 - 99 hrs
HMON = 983 mb / 81 kt at 120 hrs
HAFS-A = 996 mb / 52 kt at 84 hrs
HAFS-B = 984 mb / 83 kt 90 - 93 hrs

Seems like the first indication is something in the range of a TS to a cat 1.

The average of all of these to include hrs;

The average peak is 71.75 kts
The average pressure is 985 mb
The average hr of peak is 99 hrs out.

It equals an 82 mph hurricane (round to the nearest whole is 80 mph) with a peak pressure of 985 mb with a peak ~100 hours out.

[StormWeather]

First run (12z) of the hurricane models for 93E.

HWRF = 977 mb / 71 kt at 96 - 99 hrs
HMON = 983 mb / 81 kt at 120 hrs
HAFS-A = 996 mb / 52 kt at 84 hrs
HAFS-B = 984 mb / 83 kt 90 - 93 hrs

Seems like the first indication is something in the range of a TS to a cat 1.

The average of all of these to include hrs;

The average peak is 71.75 kts
The average pressure is 985 mb
The average hr of peak is 99 hrs out.

It equals an 82 mph hurricane (round to the nearest whole is 80 mph) with a peak pressure of 985 mb with a peak ~100 hours out.

99 hours out would equal June 15th, evening time.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form late this week or this
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian, the model guidance especially SHIP, is a little more bullish at 00z.

EP, 93, 2025061200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 985W, 20, 1010, DB

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, the model guidance especially SHIP, is a little more bullish at 00z.

EP, 93, 2025061200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 985W, 20, 1010, DB

https://i.imgur.com/aaAsdhB.png

https://i.imgur.com/ekZXR8T.png

https://i.imgur.com/bEj8JHX.png

It'll help that there won't be another TC affecting it like Barbara and Cosme. But it may suffer from dry air and mid level shear similar to the first 3 systems.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two while
it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Slowly organizing.

[Kingarabian]

Lots of outflow boundaries. Looks like a larger system than what was modeled earlier.

[Yellow Evan]

An ACWB will be displacing the ULAC over it and not in the usual manner for systems in this area of the world.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form in the next day or so while it moves
generally west-northwestward. Interests along the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2025061218, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1001W, 30, 1006, LO