2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Zonacane]

Looks like the STR will be dug in for quite so time

Might not get our first storm until July

[jaguars_22]

Both CMC and GFS Ensembles still showing some spin up near Texas Coast/Upper Mexico

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS backed off the BoC a little, or at least keeps it weaker right up until just before landfall, but the canadian has latched on. The Google Deepmind AI model https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab shows it forming right before landfall in mexico, though next Thursday. Icon is also poking in.

I guess the models seems to be hinting on something maybe coming together Wed/Thur immediately before landfall in Mexico.

[Jr0d]

Looks like the STR will be dug in for quite so time

Might not get our first storm until July

I said that almost a week ago...

First time in awhile we had no early season storms.

[Stratton23]

Its important to not focus on any one single operational model run showing a storm, its strength and any potential path to mexico, which also is not written in stone yet, their still aee a few different scenarios on the table, and the GEFS/ GEPS ensembles are a little more bullish than the operational runs with more of a spread from central mexico to corpus christi

[Stratton23]

12z EPS starting to have more members in the BOC, less pacific activity, different from the operational run

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the STR will be dug in for quite so time

Drought conditions in SEFL with the ridge in place, quiet for the the next two weeks, at least

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[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z EPS starting to have more members in the BOC, less pacific activity, different from the operational run

[Stratton23]

GFS backs off on any development, but now the CMC likes development even more, most aggressive run yet, 996 mb TS riding up the lower texas coast, making landfall in corpus at day 8

[Stratton23]

UMKET has a weak/ broad low pressure drifting north in the southern gulf

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Worth watching 94E to see whether or not it crosses over into the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf.

[underthwx]

Looks like the STR will be dug in for quite so time

Might not get our first storm until July

Good morning yall. I'm curious about the STR. What exactly is it? And what role does it play in tropical weather?

[chaser1]

Looks like the STR will be dug in for quite so time

Might not get our first storm until July

Good morning yall. I'm curious about the STR. What exactly is it? And what role does it play in tropical weather?

That's a fair question considering that I do not believe that "STR" is an actual meteorological acronym; At least not one that I've ever read in any meteorology text books. I could merely guess that the STR abbreviation that one or more people have used to shorten their description of some particular weather related condition or event. So, take your pick LOL..... STRatus, SubTRopical storm, Subtropical Ridge, etc. I'm guessing the reference regards the strong surface ridge currently in place over the SW Atlantic extending to the SE CONUS.

[Stratton23]

Models are showing 94e In the pacific really sending alot of tropical moisture into texas next week, especially the CMC

[WeatherBoy2000]

Models are showing 94e In the pacific really sending alot of tropical moisture into texas next week, especially the CMC

Atm it looks like 94e will make landfall too far west for BOC crossover development, but if it tracks further east then it becomes a higher possibility.

[Stratton23]

Weatherboy2000 not impossible, but upper level ridging over florida will make it difficult to stay over water if it even does , i could see a scenario in which 94E kind of just rides up the mexican coast line and moves into south texas, the CMC and ICON models show this which is why they bring a lot of rainfall to south central texas

[Stratton23]

UKMET does have some sort of weak circulation remaining intact from 94E as it does manage to cross over in the southern gulf, stalls out off the coast of central mexico

[cycloneye]

FYI= 18z HAFS-B has crossover to BOC but very weak and goes to Mexico. Go to the Invest 94E thread for all the model runs and more.

[BobHarlem]

Still quiet in the Atlantic on the euro and ensembles, while the GFS and some of its ensembles are still confused by Lake Maracaibo with the gyre spinups (the lake is also notable for the crazy amounts of lightning there aka Catatumbo lightning so it's already kind of a meteorological anomoly). (With zero support on any other model) Google's model shows maybe something east of Bermuda and out to sea last week of June, but nothing solid there either.

[jaguars_22]

Was the complex of storms near Kingsville tx picked up by the models? Its got some spin to it... I know its small If it was over the water it could do something