EPAC: ERICK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1934310191778172932

[cycloneye]

The 18z run of the tropical models are more to the left than north and intensitywise, they are more bullish.

EP, 94, 2025061518, , BEST, 0, 97N, 883W, 25, 1009, DB

[DorkyMcDorkface]

In addition to tracking over basically the most favorable patch of SSTs/thermodynamics in the Eastern Pacific, this looks like it'll be a compact system, at least in comparison to the many broad, sprawling disturbances we've seen so far this year. Definitely think this one has the potential to be sneaky strong.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like a LLC may be trying to form just south of the El Salvador coast.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-B goes very bullish. Other models are not as agressive.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

At 18z, HAFS-B has a crossover to western BOC as it tracks more east.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

At 18z, HAFS-B has a crossover to western BOC as it tracks more east.

https://i.imgur.com/Mlfo32a.gif

https://i.imgur.com/LOqEkA2.gif

Yeah the further E the track is the better the opportunity will be for this to jump basins. If it makes landfall W of 95W then no shot.

[cycloneye]

Looks like a LLC may be trying to form just south of the El Salvador coast.

Looks like the area you mentioned is not the one they are plotting the best track as they are still below 10N. 00z Best track here.

EP, 94, 2025061600, , BEST, 0, 98N, 889W, 25, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

00z BAMS.

[cycloneye]

No please, no John or Otis repeat.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1934302360450338993

[cycloneye]

11 PM PDT TWO:

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Looks like a LLC may be trying to form just south of the El Salvador coast.

06z GFS has the low that you pointed out yesterday at the start of run and also has the best track one below 10N that takes over and develops.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day
or two while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1934583137532551293

[cycloneye]

No please. HWRF has a Otis redux for Acapulco.

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2025061612, , BEST, 0, 104N, 904W, 25, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

Hey folks, don't want to be the only one posting here. Let's have participation of the members sharing different information.

Anyway, here is the animation and looks to be slowly consolidating.

[TallyTracker]

This looks like the most dangerous system of the year thus far in the EPAC. I expect a hurricane out of this one. Shear is the only thing I see that can keep a lid on it. Otherwise, the warm SSTs and abundant moisture will be favorable.

The odds of a landfall also look good. I think a direct EPAC to BOC crossover is remote. It’s possible the remnant energy could spawn a new system which has happened multiple times in the past.

[jaguars_22]

The HWRF Model does show exactly what you are saying... A second low pressure move into Texas