EPAC: ERICK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z HAFS-B tracks more east and that may cause a crossover.

[Kingarabian]

How quickly it develops will play a role in the track it appears. HAFS models with quicker development show a more eastern track vs the globals that have delayed development.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located offshore the coast of Central America have become a
little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next day or so, while it moves
west-northwestward near the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico. Interests in these locations should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, areas of heavy
rain are likely across portions of Central America and southeastern
Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

12z HMON.

[Kingarabian]

HAFS models have this at border line major hurricane status by hour 66.

[cycloneye]

The 18z BAMS are more west and the intensity is up.

[Yellow Evan]

BAMS are simple steering models. Not really what we use in the year 2025.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 91.7W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala have increased in organization over the past couple of
days. Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed elongated
low-level center south of a burst of modest convective activity.
The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a partial overpass of
satellite scatterometer data. Since the system is expected to
develop and affect southern Mexico late Wednesday or Thursday,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/7 kt, but this is
uncertain due to the lack of a defined core. The low is moving
along the western periphery of a ridge centered over the
southwestern Atlantic, and this feature should control the motion of
the system for the entirety of the forecast period. Most global and
regional models predict the low will turn toward the northwest later
today or tonight, and that motion should persist for the next few
days. There is noticeable spread in the along-track speed of the
system among the various models. The GFS and some of the regional
models show a slower motion while the ECMWF and HCCA anticipate a
quicker forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies closest to a
blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, near the center of the guidance
envelope.

The low should remain over an area of very warm waters and within a
conducive environment for strengthening. SHIPS-EC shows a 50
percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening in 48 hr, which highlights
the possibility of rapid intensification in the coming days. The
official forecast predicts the disturbance will become a tropical
storm in about a day and a hurricane in a couple of days. The NHC
forecast lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance
envelope. This system is expected to bring significant winds upon
landfall in southern Mexico in the next few days or so. However, it
is important to note that uncertainty remains high in the exact
location of potential impacts, and interests in southern Mexico
should closely monitor the latest forecasts.

NHC now has the ability to issue tropical cyclone advisory products
for Potential Tropical Cyclones up to 72 hours before the
anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds on land when
confidence is high that there is a significant risk of wind or storm
surge impacts to land, regardless of the immediate need for
land-based hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings,
Previously, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be issued up
to 48 hours beforehand. Appropriate watches and warnings will
still be issued 48 and 36 hours, respectively, before the onset of
tropical-storm-force winds.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday
and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it
approaches southern Mexico. Hurricane watches will likely be
required for portions of southern Mexico tonight or early Tuesday..

2. The system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through this week.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 17/1800Z 11.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 12.6N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 13.5N 95.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 14.5N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 15.8N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1934717271257276760

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 16/1800Z

C. 11.2N

D. 91.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE
MET EQUALS 1.0 AND THE PT EQUALS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
IRREGULAR BANDING PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Teban54]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 91.7W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala have increased in organization over the past couple of
days. Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed elongated
low-level center south of a burst of modest convective activity.
The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a partial overpass of
satellite scatterometer data. Since the system is expected to
develop and affect southern Mexico late Wednesday or Thursday,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/7 kt, but this is
uncertain due to the lack of a defined core. The low is moving
along the western periphery of a ridge centered over the
southwestern Atlantic, and this feature should control the motion of
the system for the entirety of the forecast period. Most global and
regional models predict the low will turn toward the northwest later
today or tonight, and that motion should persist for the next few
days. There is noticeable spread in the along-track speed of the
system among the various models. The GFS and some of the regional
models show a slower motion while the ECMWF and HCCA anticipate a
quicker forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies closest to a
blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, near the center of the guidance
envelope.

The low should remain over an area of very warm waters and within a
conducive environment for strengthening. SHIPS-EC shows a 50
percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening in 48 hr, which highlights
the possibility of rapid intensification in the coming days. The
official forecast predicts the disturbance will become a tropical
storm in about a day and a hurricane in a couple of days. The NHC
forecast lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance
envelope. This system is expected to bring significant winds upon
landfall in southern Mexico in the next few days or so. However, it
is important to note that uncertainty remains high in the exact
location of potential impacts, and interests in southern Mexico
should closely monitor the latest forecasts.

NHC now has the ability to issue tropical cyclone advisory products
for Potential Tropical Cyclones up to 72 hours before the
anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds on land when
confidence is high that there is a significant risk of wind or storm
surge impacts to land, regardless of the immediate need for
land-based hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings,
Previously, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be issued up
to 48 hours beforehand. Appropriate watches and warnings will
still be issued 48 and 36 hours, respectively, before the onset of
tropical-storm-force winds.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday
and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it
approaches southern Mexico. Hurricane watches will likely be
required for portions of southern Mexico tonight or early Tuesday..

2. The system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through this week.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 17/1800Z 11.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 12.6N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 13.5N 95.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 14.5N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 15.8N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano

https://i.imgur.com/TdBn2Pk.png

An 80 kts forecast on the first advisory for a landfalling EPAC storm in June is certainly something you don't see very often.

[WaveBreaking]

That naked swirl/LLC from earlier today has pivoted under the convection now on visible satellite.

[cycloneye]

That naked swirl/LLC from earlier today has pivoted under the convection now on visible satellite.

Is a matter of time that it will be TD or TS.

[cycloneye]

What about 100%?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five-E, located in the eastern Pacific basin off
the coast of Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Light shear expected.

 https://x.com/daniloevan11/status/1934760132254052785

[cycloneye]

This is ramping up fast. From Invest to PTC and 6 hours later TD.

EP, 05, 2025061700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 924W, 30, 1007, TD

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep052025.dat

[Category5Kaiju]

We really don't need another John or Otis. EPAC, please stop generating storms that explode right before hitting Southern Mexico. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

A. 05E (NONAME)

B. 17/0000Z

C. 11.7N

D. 91.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/ATMS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. 2039Z SSMIS PASS SHOWED
BANDING TAKING SHAPE N AND W QUADS. SMALL CIRCULATION GRDLY BECMG MORE
DEFINED. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION
AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

16/1850Z 11.4N 91.6W ATMS
16/2039Z 11.5N 92.0W SSMIS


...KONON