Texas Summer 2025

[Ntxw]

108F forecast today for El Paso . Was 109F out there yesterday.

[Pas_Bon]

That little cluster of thunderstorms down by Kingsville has a good little spin to it.... If it was over the gulf it could do something... Interesting

It's also nearly stationary, so it may be trying to make its own Gulf.

[jaguars_22]

That area is just getting pounded with tons of rain! hopefully it moves faster soon

[Ntxw]

One thing will note the ridge will 'skip' over us, warm but not unordinary hot, before it ramps up to the east. Kind of like June of 2021...which is a summer most of us will take.

[TomballEd]

Larry Cosgrove in his Facebook post said to watch 94E. I think Cycloneye also mentioned it. If it makes landfall in Mexico and continues N to NW it would enhance moisture over the state.

[Stratton23]

Will need to watch 94 E to see if its able to send any moisture towards the texas coast, in addition the Euro shows another weak tropical wave crossing the central gulf at day 9-10 that could bring even more tropical moisture to parts of texas, this wet weather pattern is staying locked in for the foreseeable future, at least for the southern half of the state

[TomballEd]

All 3 ensemble means on Tropical Tidbits suggest a near term slug of moisture (enhanced rainfall) along the Mexican coast but it doesn't reach Texas (PTC Five-E?). After that, there is nothing clear in 850 mb or 500 mb vort or PW suggesting a tropical wave into the Gulf until a op Euro system tries and fails (partly due to shear, mostly due to proximity to the Mexican coast) to develop well S of Texas day 11-14. Out to day 10 on all the ensemble means it looks like the sea breeze stays somewhat active but away from the coast Texas will stay fairly dry out to day 14.

I'll take it for here, heights low enough to allow a daily chance of a storm from the sea breeze or outflow boundaries thus produced. That also means temps near the coast are seasonably warm but not hot.

[cycloneye]

All 3 ensemble means on Tropical Tidbits suggest a near term slug of moisture (enhanced rainfall) along the Mexican coast but it doesn't reach Texas (PTC Five-E?). After that, there is nothing clear in 850 mb or 500 mb vort or PW suggesting a tropical wave into the Gulf until a op Euro system tries and fails (partly due to shear, mostly due to proximity to the Mexican coast) to develop well S of Texas day 11-14. Out to day 10 on all the ensemble means it looks like the sea breeze stays somewhat active but away from the coast Texas will stay fairly dry out to day 14.

I'll take it for here, heights low enough to allow a daily chance of a storm from the sea breeze or outflow boundaries thus produced. That also means temps near the coast are seasonably warm but not hot.

To let you know that edited your post to change from 94E to PTC Five-E.

[Brent]

One thing will note the ridge will 'skip' over us, warm but not unordinary hot, before it ramps up to the east. Kind of like June of 2021...which is a summer most of us will take.

Ironically 2021 is the last time we didn't hit 100 in June and we finished below average on number of 100s

Not looking like it's going to happen this year... Not seeing anything even close. Mid 90s at worst. Still some 80s for highs showing up even

Not bad so far. I mean yes it's still going to suck but

[cstrunk]

It's been wet here, but it's still June 17th and it's pretty common to be wet in early-mid June around here. It definitely looks to be warming up and drying up for the foreseeable future. No death ridge yet, but low 90's in the forecast and only minimal rain chances over the next couple of weeks... drying out for the inevitable blast furnace in July/August? Unless the tropics decide differently.

[TomballEd]

Just looked at all the models and ensembles. Any enhancement in rainfall on the Gulf side of Mexico looks to be well S of the border. Models and ensembles suggest days with seabreeze activity along the coast but generally pretty dry (not completely dry) through 10 days. The front coming into Oklahoma mostly generates rain in Oklahoma. I would not be surprised if a 'surprise' short notice MCS doesn't affect DFW in the short term. 12Z NAM tries to do it Wednesday night/Thursday morning but the inhibition/cap is just a smidge too strong to allow it.

I'm hoping enhanced rainfall from Erick comes further N that models think, no rain is bad rain in STX (unless it produces flooding). I don't see much on ensembles suggesting a real tropical threat for Texas in the next 15 days. 29 or 30C SSTs are a smidge warm for mid-June and their are areas not that far from Texas with OHC approaching 100 Kj/cm^2, so any MCS/MCV that can get over the ocean could always spin up but if I were betting money June will have no TCs.

[ElectricStorm]

Went to bed and we were barely in the slight risk, now in the moderate. Dangerous MCS likely tonight. Looks like outflow from this mornings MCS could help later development

[Ntxw]

Hopefully everyone got their fair share as the pattern will be shifting to a drier, and warmer stretch. Sonoran ridge over the SW with extreme heat will flex and troughing in the Pac NW. We will probably rise to near normal and less disturbed weather heading into the solstice.

To follow up, the trends have pretty much been on par course. To round out the month, the seasonal ridge will shift east, so we may see more activity coming in the from the gulf with chances for moisture but largely the summer base temps have set in. Looking towards July early indications in the long range is favored Pacific NW raised heights to return. This of course inverted is good for us, if you like less heat. Might be a chance at a wetter, for July, and possibly cool or near normal. No super hot summer this year.

[Cpv17]

Just looked at all the models and ensembles. Any enhancement in rainfall on the Gulf side of Mexico looks to be well S of the border. Models and ensembles suggest days with seabreeze activity along the coast but generally pretty dry (not completely dry) through 10 days. The front coming into Oklahoma mostly generates rain in Oklahoma. I would not be surprised if a 'surprise' short notice MCS doesn't affect DFW in the short term. 12Z NAM tries to do it Wednesday night/Thursday morning but the inhibition/cap is just a smidge too strong to allow it.

I'm hoping enhanced rainfall from Erick comes further N that models think, no rain is bad rain in STX (unless it produces flooding). I don't see much on ensembles suggesting a real tropical threat for Texas in the next 15 days. 29 or 30C SSTs are a smidge warm for mid-June and their are areas not that far from Texas with OHC approaching 100 Kj/cm^2, so any MCS/MCV that can get over the ocean could always spin up but if I were betting money June will have no TCs.

Idk about that. I think we’ll still have some decent rain chances in southeast TX over the next couple weeks.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 agreed, rain chances for the southern half of the state, especially SE texas look pretty decent the next several weeks, the heat ridge looks to be anchored over the eastern US even into the extended range, im actually starting to see some similarities to a more 2021 type of summer, just hope that doesn’t come at the cost of getting walloped by a tropical system down the road

[rwfromkansas]

After big drought my hometown in KS is flooding with 8 inches of rain. Geez.

[Brent]

After big drought my hometown in KS is flooding with 8 inches of rain. Geez.

The flip is just crazy

And tbh I've run the GFS a couple times to July already and it still doesn't look like we entirely clear out. I mean yeah it's probably gonna get less frequent and more hot but it doesn't look like we're setting up for endless heat either yet

[TomballEd]

Just looked at all the models and ensembles. Any enhancement in rainfall on the Gulf side of Mexico looks to be well S of the border. Models and ensembles suggest days with seabreeze activity along the coast but generally pretty dry (not completely dry) through 10 days. The front coming into Oklahoma mostly generates rain in Oklahoma. I would not be surprised if a 'surprise' short notice MCS doesn't affect DFW in the short term. 12Z NAM tries to do it Wednesday night/Thursday morning but the inhibition/cap is just a smidge too strong to allow it.

I'm hoping enhanced rainfall from Erick comes further N that models think, no rain is bad rain in STX (unless it produces flooding). I don't see much on ensembles suggesting a real tropical threat for Texas in the next 15 days. 29 or 30C SSTs are a smidge warm for mid-June and their are areas not that far from Texas with OHC approaching 100 Kj/cm^2, so any MCS/MCV that can get over the ocean could always spin up but if I were betting money June will have no TCs.

Idk about that. I think we’ll still have some decent rain chances in southeast TX over the next couple weeks.

SETX rains will be mostly sea breeze (or outflows from sea breeze triggered storms) and diurnal. By saying 'away from the coast' being dry, I am saying areas near the coast, ie, SETX, will not be dry.

Down in Mission for a funeral in La Joya. Nice breeze is keeping it comfortable despite the temperatures

[wxman22]

[cstrunk]

Euro seems to at least indicate some better statewide rain chances towards the end of June/beginning of July. GFS not so much.