2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[WeatherBoy2000]

I didn't mean the whole month of July has been dead, but it has been common in recent years for there to be a spike in activity around the end of June through the first week of July and then for there to be an extended lull. That's the "dead July" pattern I've been referring to.

All I know, is "dead" seems to better describe the withered dry dead corpse of an Atlantic basin that we are presently viewing. One singular named storm alone during the month of July would equate to a 100% increase in activity. As Larry points out, recent years would suggest the greater odds of seeing a named storm in July rather than not. Even IF July produces two named storms, I still think 2025 will end somewhere between below average & average in terms of "total numbers".

In the end, ya never know though. The Euro weeklies along with other indicators could be sniffing out a quieter hurricane season such as 2000 or 2009. Those years come to mind when I think about no named storms during June and July

At least since 1966, other years that come to mind where a June/July named storm (including before June 1) failed to occur include 1977, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1988, and 1992. 1980 and 2004 came very close as their first named storms didn't form until July 31.

Some of those years ended up as very inactive years. Some of them ended up as relatively active years. Interestingly, three of those years became the epitome of "it only takes one," as 1977, 1983, and 1992's first named storms also ended up becoming a destructive major hurricane.

There really isn't a shared pattern between those years as some were inactive due to the -AMO, an El Nino, etc, but one could say that they likely experienced a more hostile early season that climatology would dictate.

Although this is just an assumption based on the seasons you've listed, it seems like dormant or "dead" early seasons are correlated with lesser activity overall. Outside 2004, these seasons were slightly above normal at most (2000/1980). However, seasons lately have been rather backloaded, so a dormant early season might not matter too much in the end.

[kevin]

While SSTs in the MDR are still only 'slightly above average', the SST anomaly of the North Atlantic as a whole is now the 3rd highest for this time of the year (only behind 2023 and 2024). The GOM is even 2nd at the moment only behind 2024.

North Alantic


GOM


MDR

[psyclone]

McNoldy's OHC maps show the Gulf is on a trajectory to have all time record OHC very soon. I am not a believer in a "slower" Gulf this year. Someone is probably gonna get rekt. It's tough to be against the persistence of the Gulf's hot hand...it's hot...really hot

[cycloneye]

Very interesting thread from Eric Webb. Read it all.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1932940976202658067

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1933168076519825645

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1933181281220628563

[cycloneye]

Not good signs for seeing activity anytime soon. Also the Atllantic Niña is present making things at MDR difficult to develop, unless it goes away for ASO.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1933176212379373830



 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1933505178424258921

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point I think it's becoming somewhat clearer by the day that the Atlantic is experiencing more hostile-than-usual conditions this early season compared to many of the recent seasons in memory. Definitely a 180 compared to last year. It looks like the sprawling high that is blocking any CAGs from lifting northward and spawning storms on the Atlantic side, combined with elevated wind shear and dry, stable air, are the main culprits behind this dearth of activity. I think there's a legitimate possibility that we may not see our first named storm until at least July.

With that being said....it's not as if the Atlantic is alone with some sort of struggle. The WPAC didn't get their first named storm until days ago, which is a very unusual occurrence in that basin. And the EPAC, while very active in terms of named storms, has yet to produce a significant early-season hurricane (like 2010, 2011, or 2016-style); unless Delilah manages to pull an insane trick and defy current forecasts of peaking at TS strength, it doesn't look like the EPAC is going to feature a major-strength system anytime soon. This demonstrates that background conditions in the EPAC are still not conducive enough for robust activity.

Now as for the upcoming weeks, I say it's probably just a waiting game. I think we are so used to recent Atlantic hurricane seasons generating June storms that not seeing one would naturally let us believe that there may be other negative, mysterious factors at play, which may or may not be the case. I think it's important to keep in mind that June is a climatologically hostile month for many reasons, and you can't ever expect a Beryl to happen every hurricane season going forward. Some Junes are simply more hostile than others. In fact, in 2019, we had a very short-lived subtropical storm in May and a mesoscale convective vortex over Kansas drift over the Gulf and generate an ugly, weak hurricane in July (this kind of tropical storm-genesis pattern isn't exactly common); that year easily could've not seen either, making us have to wait until late August for our first named storm and our second named storm becoming a monstrous Category 5 hurricane.

Whatever happens going forward, the longer we wait with nothing to really disturb the Atlantic waters, the more untapped fuel and energy there will be in the ocean, and especially if hostile conditions let up just enough and if something tries to get going in the tropical Atlantic, the more likely it'll become something worth watching.

[LarryWx]

The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004.

I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.

[StPeteMike]

The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004.

I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.

2011 has been mentioned before as a comparison of what to expect this season and I really can see that being a possibility with the way the season is starting for, or I guess the lack of. We went the whole month of June without a tropical system then and it looks like we will go through June without a named system.

Do wonder if the trajectory of the storms will also match 2011 as well, with the majority of storms then going OTS or being an East Coast threat.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004.

I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.

2011 has been mentioned before as a comparison of what to expect this season and I really can see that being a possibility with the way the season is starting for, or I guess the lack of. We went the whole month of June without a tropical system then and it looks like we will go through June without a named system.

Do wonder if the trajectory of the storms will also match 2011 as well, with the majority of storms then going OTS or being an East Coast threat.

2011 had a storm at the very end of June (Arlene in the BOC). So far the subtropical ridge has been strong, this would go against an OTS dominate season if it were to persist.

[Woofde]

The current configuration is definitely cut out for another above average season. There's some small asterisk's with a lot of the warmth being in the subtropics and an Atl nina, but at the end of the day it's still a top 5 season thus far for total basin warmth. The last two years were unreasonably abnormal.

We haven't had a below average season since 2015, almost 10 years ago. There's no strong signs that indicate this will be the year to kick that trend.

[cycloneye]

Deelan knows a lot about the patterns.

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1934747453107929367

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Deelan knows a lot about the patterns.

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1934747453107929367

Adding on to that:

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1934779722702918066


 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1934779725928440000

[TomballEd]

A few have alluded to it but CFS Monthly, CanSIPS and NMME all show the greatest temperature anomalies in a generally warmer than normal Atlantic is N of the tropics. Might favor some sub or subtropical to fully tropical systems outside the MDR, especially later in the season. But longer track storms in the tropics are not favored.

Whether that means below normal MDR development or later developing (less chance of missing land) systems developing in the Caribbean or Gulf, that is the question.

[chaser1]

A few have alluded to it but CFS Monthly, CanSIPS and NMME all show the greatest temperature anomalies in a generally warmer than normal Atlantic is N of the tropics. Might favor some sub or subtropical to fully tropical systems outside the MDR, especially later in the season. But longer track storms in the tropics are not favored.

Whether that means below normal MDR development or later developing (less chance of missing land) systems developing in the Caribbean or Gulf, that is the question.

That would be my assessment as well. Two primary clusters of genesis. One being higher latitude (roughly from 20 - 40 N) forming anywhere from the Central Atlantic to the Eastern Seaboard. The other occuring in the deeper tropics but primarily west of 55W. I think that the overall storm size will be on the smaller size as well.

[WeatherBoy2000]

A few have alluded to it but CFS Monthly, CanSIPS and NMME all show the greatest temperature anomalies in a generally warmer than normal Atlantic is N of the tropics. Might favor some sub or subtropical to fully tropical systems outside the MDR, especially later in the season. But longer track storms in the tropics are not favored.

Whether that means below normal MDR development or later developing (less chance of missing land) systems developing in the Caribbean or Gulf, that is the question.

The set-up predicted is very reminiscent of 2021 which had a pretty decent mdr showing with notable long trackers like Larry/Sam. The Atlantic nino typically pushes the ITCZ further south, so theoretically it could somewhat combat any stability/dry air issues.

[cycloneye]

JB and the very dry NATL for July.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1934963259335139517

[chaser1]

A few have alluded to it but CFS Monthly, CanSIPS and NMME all show the greatest temperature anomalies in a generally warmer than normal Atlantic is N of the tropics. Might favor some sub or subtropical to fully tropical systems outside the MDR, especially later in the season. But longer track storms in the tropics are not favored.

Whether that means below normal MDR development or later developing (less chance of missing land) systems developing in the Caribbean or Gulf, that is the question.

The set-up predicted is very reminiscent of 2021 which had a pretty decent mdr showing with notable long trackers like Larry/Sam. The Atlantic nino typically pushes the ITCZ further south, so theoretically it could somewhat combat any stability/dry air issues.

The ITCZ remaining suppressed further south as we approach peak season would be rather interesting for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it would be suggestive of higher surface pressures out there and east of the Antilles. That alone could suppress activity and mitigate tropical cyclones from easily organizing. Even more interesting is a statement that I recall CSU (I believe it was CSU?) within their initial season forecast discussion, suggesting the contrary. Something along the lines that they were anticipating the large W. African Monsoon trough to extend further west and north (as it had last year) thus resulting in tropical waves to exit the African coast further north and potentially resulting in several far east Atlantic storms to form and quickly recurve poleward (depending on SST's of course). That would certainly be a very different look then what we currently have in place. Then again, we're in middle June - a way's to go before "prime-time". It'll be interesting to see if that pattern verifies.

[aspen]

The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004.

I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.

Interestingly, more than half of the seasons in the last 30 years without a TS before July 13th (1998, 2000, and 2004) were at least somewhat above-average. So that by itself doesn’t mean we’ll get another 2002 or 2009-esqe year, but looking at the mixed to slightly unfavorable long-term environmental forecasts, I think we could be in for the least active season since 2015.

We’re probably not going to see much early development this year as opposed to 2020-24, with all of the Central American disturbances forming in the EPac and sinking patterns forecast later in June into July. Perhaps we’ll see something like 2019 where it takes until late August for activity to full ramp up (no more than 3 storms before 8/20), rather than having a smaller peak in June-July like the last several seasons.