EPAC: ERICK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sasha_B]

The NHC's 18z intermediate advisory has 85 kt / 971 hPa - officially Category 2.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
1200 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERICK NOW A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

Pinhole eye with no limiting factors and forecast to eventually make landfall...

[kevin]

Raw T# shot up to 6.7, pinhole eye.

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUN 2025 Time : 174020 UTC
Lat : 14:05:27 N Lon : 96:14:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.3mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.9 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -18.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[Sciencerocks]

I think this is going to become a major in the next 12 hours and probably make landfall as one. History we're witnessing. This probably will get into the cat4 range in the next 24 hours with this environment and structure.

[Kingarabian]

Constraints are in good use for Dvorak on this system and not breaking them is justified for now. Winds still catching up. Only problem is that they actually ARE catching up.

[kevin]

Wow raw T# now at 7.1. Hopefully there's a core collapse soon because especially for June this is insane. How populated is the area it is expected to make landfall?

[Hurricane2000]

Continues to improve

[WaveBreaking]

Never thought I’d see something like this in June but here we are, unfortunately.

[Zonacane]

The eye is clearing out

[WaveBreaking]

Wow raw T# now at 7.1. Hopefully there's a core collapse soon because especially for June this is insane. How populated is the area it is expected to make landfall?

Seeing how Acapulco is in the cone, ~850k not including other towns.

[ColdMiser123]

It was deepening at a rate of ~3.4 mb/hr this afternoon. Last ob was at 17z. If that rate continued throughout the afternoon & continues into the evening, it's plausible recon finds pressure in the 950s by the time it gets there.

[aspen]

Getting a bit of Otis vibes from this now. In theory it shouldn’t get as strong…hopefully.

I’m guessing recon will probably find a Cat 3, maybe approaching Cat 4, when it arrives in a few hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Assuming 3 mbar/hr deepening rate and given 971 at 17z, that corresponds to about 953 at 0z.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye at OW now but still not well defined on visible. Need VHTs around all of the eyewall to generate faster pressure falls as well.

[cheezyWXguy]

Even in peak season, it’s pretty rare to see a system kick into high gear this quickly without developmental hiccups along the way. Even with most of our bigger storms over the last few years there’s been a period preceding the RI phase where people debate whether the forecast intensity will be reached, so it’s pretty crazy to see a storm like this unfold in June, especially with these landfall impact prospects. A note for later in the season - rapid development like this is an exception, not the rule, no matter what time of year.

Hoping Erick makes landfall in the least populated area possible as I’m sure much of this region is still recovering from Otis and John.

[weeniepatrol]

Way too beautiful for mid June and this close to Mexico.

[kevin]

Erick already has a 2.5 hour streak of pinhole assignments by the automated Dvorak. Even with many pinholes this rarely happens due to obscuring by clouds. Goes to show how stable Erick is atm. Without an EWRC in the next 12 - 16 hours we could be looking an (unfortunately for very destructuve reasons) historic landfall.

[TomballEd]

I think I see a hint of a N wobble. The approach to Mexico is so oblique to the coastline, every little wobble could move the landfall point by 50 miles.