2025 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

IIRC 5 with 1985 and 2018 sharing it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this
weekend or early next week near the coast of Central America. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time as it
moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central America and
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, has
formed just off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of the low, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while moving
westward or west-northwestward just offshore the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 94E is up.

[cycloneye]

So far this basin has been quantity over quality as 4 tropical cyclones have formed but none have reached hurricane strength. ACE has been in the average camp. The -PDO will not help in terms of the EPAC MDR being too favorable.

[Kingarabian]

So far this basin has been quantity over quality as 4 tropical cyclones have formed but none have reached hurricane strength. ACE has been in the average camp. The -PDO will not help in terms of the EPAC MDR being too favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/r5Akt0J.png

https://i.imgur.com/pe8qsRU.png

-PDO and -PMM hurting ACE big time

[Teban54]

So far this basin has been quantity over quality as 4 tropical cyclones have formed but none have reached hurricane strength.

Barbara did briefly become a Cat 1 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

So far this basin has been quantity over quality as 4 tropical cyclones have formed but none have reached hurricane strength.

Barbara did briefly become a Cat 1 hurricane.

Oh yes. Maybe Dalila does the same?

[WeatherBoy2000]

So far this basin has been quantity over quality as 4 tropical cyclones have formed but none have reached hurricane strength.

Barbara did briefly become a Cat 1 hurricane.

Oh yes. Maybe Dalila does the same?

Looking less likely now. Dalila is beginning to feel the lackluster ssts:

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1934039991610712518

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has two more after 94E.

[Kingarabian]

Recent Euro runs still favoring the EPAC for one more system.

[Astromanía]

Let's go for that record or at least for a tie

[weeniepatrol]

Erick may be setting records. There are 0 (zero) major hurricane landfalls for Mexico in the month of June in the historical record:



A couple systems, such as Carlotta of 2012 did come very close (95 kt).

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Could be one more before the spigot turns off

[cycloneye]

No please for the same area.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low..20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over southern
Mexico.

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over
southern Mexico.

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Beven