WPAC: SEPAT - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 250621 0000 20.5N 145.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Low

ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJUN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.8N
145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 498 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.8N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY
498 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 210230Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHERMORE, A
210012Z ASCAT-C IMAGE EMPHASIZES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITHIN THE AREA.
ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEGRADING THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z

[cycloneye]

95W INVEST 250621 1200 21.9N 146.2E WPAC 15 1008

[Hayabusa]

TD

WWJP27 RJTD 211800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 22N 147E NW SLOWLY.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to medium.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9N 146.6E TO 27.0N 142.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.3N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212300Z ASCAT
METOP-B 25KM IMAGE SHOWS ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (20 KNOTS) BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230200Z.
//
NNNN

[StormWeather]

TCFA
https://i.imgur.com/6eNlXgq.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9N 146.6E TO 27.0N 142.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.3N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212300Z ASCAT
METOP-B 25KM IMAGE SHOWS ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (20 KNOTS) BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230200Z.
//
NNNN

Already?! It was just upped to medium just a few hours ago! It was low to start today!

[Hayabusa]

TC warning from JMA since 06Z

TD a
Issued at 2025/06/22 10:15 UTC
Analysis at 06/22 09 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°55′ (22.9°)
E146°25′ (146.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 06/23 09 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°20′ (27.3°)
E141°55′ (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 06/24 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°50′ (30.8°)
E139°50′ (139.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 06/25 06 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°00′ (35.0°)
E140°00′ (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

[Hayabusa]

02W TWO 250622 1200 23.2N 145.9E WPAC 30 1006

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 23.8N 145.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 227 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(TD) 02W. TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INTRODUCING ELEVATED SHEAR AND
RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). WHILE THE LLCC IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE DUE TO LACK OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION, THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING
INTO
THE LLCC HAS PICKED UP OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

[Hayabusa]

Now TS Sepat

T2502(Sepat)
Issued at 2025/06/23 01:30 UTC
Analysis at 06/23 00 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E144°40′ (144.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE280 km (150 NM)
SW110 km (60 NM)

[StormWeather]

Now TS Sepat

T2502(Sepat)
Issued at 2025/06/23 01:30 UTC
Analysis at 06/23 00 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E144°40′ (144.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE280 km (150 NM)
SW110 km (60 NM)

Welcome Sepat! Glad to see you are staying out to sea!

[cycloneye]

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTING A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL STORM (TS)
02W (SEPAT). MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BEING PUSHED
NORTH
BY A LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHILE A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE WEST IS LIMITING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KTS CARRIES MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON
DVORAK ANALYSIS AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.9N 143.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 604 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 02W (SEPAT) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND VIGOROUS BURSTS OF CONVECTION WITHIN
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 230345Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 02W IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS NOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
AND IS THE CAUSE OF THE ELEVATED SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT VORTEX TILT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOSE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 27.0N 143.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 526 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 02W (SEPAT) TUCKING UNDERNEATH THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION, DISPLAYING AN IMPROVED APPEARANCE COMPARED TO 6 HOURS
AGO. THE VORTEX SEEMS TO BE BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED AS THE
SYSTEM DISTANCES ITSELF FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 231213Z GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH TIGHTLY
WRAPPING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 02W IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BOTH PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 231132Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. THE ASCAT IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF
THE WIND FIELD, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 28.4N 141.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 218 NM NORTH OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM CHARACTERIZE BY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) TO ALIGN WITH CONVECTION LEADING TO A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF
TS 02W. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, CONVECTION HAS LARGELY
DISSIPATED, REVEALING THE INNER, LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. IN THE LAST HOUR
HOWEVER, EIR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION REFORMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE LLCC. A 231552Z AMSR2 COLOR ENHANCED 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR, WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION AND VORTEX DISPLACED ABOUT 30NM NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX CENTER. EARLIER ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1400Z
INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, AND 35-40 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
EXTENDING OUTWARD ABOUT 100NM IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ELEVATED WINDS TO BE FOUND IN
THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL. WHILE SSTS
REMAIN WARM, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LOW, THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN IS EVOLVING. THE TUTT MOVING AWAY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE SYSTEM MOVING UNDER A COL-REGION, RESULTING IN REDUCED OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SHEAR.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD by JMA and JTWC.

02W SEPAT 250624 1800 31.3N 139.8E WPAC 30 1003