Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 AM AST Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
across the interior and western Puerto Rico, with passing
showers for the east and the Virgin Islands.

* Temperatures will remain seasonably hot, with heat indices up to
105 degrees anticipated.

* Winds will slow down a little through the weekend, but it will
remain breezy in the afternoon for coastal areas. The winds will
become stronger next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Conditions were mostly tranquil during the night hours across the
region. Some showers were observed across the Atlantic waters and
in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands. Temperatures cooled down to
the 70s in lower elevated areas, and in the 60s for the higher
mountains.

The pattern will continue to be dominated by a surface high
pressure creating breezy conditions across the region. The winds
will be mostly from the east at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend.
Then, the high will build, tightening the pressure gradient.
Hence, the winds will increase, so the islands could experience
strong breezy conditions next week.

In general, conditions aloft are not favorable for widespread
convection to develop across the islands. Also, moisture content
is limited to the lowest level of the atmosphere, with very little
moisture content observed in the 700-300 mb layer. However, weak
areas of vorticity advection at 850-700 mm carried by the trade
winds should be enough to trigger some passing showers along the
eastern portion of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the
day. In the afternoon, as it is usual, diurnal heating will
combine with any available moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms for the interior and west. The risk of flooding is
elevated for these areas.

Next week, as the surface high gets closer to the region, there
could be an uplift in moisture from the Caribbean Sea. This should
act to increase the potential for showers, with increasing in
frequency for the showers in the east, and higher accumulations
in the west each afternoon. There is some uncertainty on how this
pattern will unfold, however, as the ECMWF model does not show as
much moisture as the GFS. Regardless, the probability of
precipitation was increased for early next week.

Finally, temperatures will remain on the hot side, as it is
expected for June. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s,
with heat indices around 100-105 degrees in coastal and urban
areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z) Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
forecast period. SHRA will move across the local waters, briefly
reaching the vicinity of the USVI terminals, but little impacts to
operations are expected. SHRA and TSRA is expected in the west
after 17Z, with mountain obscuration along the Cordillera Central.
Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings possible for TJBQ from
17-22Z. Winds will be out of the E at 14-19 kts, with stronger
gusts.


&&

.MARINE...
A building surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds through
midweek. East to southeast winds are expected late in the weekend.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon over
the western waters of Puerto Rico.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Mostly low risk of rip current expected in the upcoming days for
the local beaches. However, strong winds in the afternoon is
promoting a moderate rip current risk for St. Croix and northern
Puerto Rico today. Next week, the winds will pick up once again,
causing a widespread moderate rip current risk along the islands.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
432 AM AST Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An elevated risk of flooding will persist over interior to
western Puerto Rico due to afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Passing showers over the eastern region.

* Highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat
indices above 100 degrees.

* Winds will somewhat decrease into the weekend, remaining breezy
in the afternoon for some coastal areas. Winds increasing again
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...

During the overnight hours, mainly fair weather conditions prevailed
over the islands with mostly clear skies over the islands, with the
exception of western Puerto Rico earlier in the night as cloudy
skies prevailed in that area due to remnants of yesterday's
afternoon convection. By 2 AM, almost all of this cloudiness was
over the Mona Passage. Shower activity was relegated to passing
showers mostly over the waters and steered by easterly winds. Since
midnight, radar estimated accumulations over land were found mostly
over the southeastern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Lows were at to below
in the upper normal over several areas, several official and
unofficial stations reported temperatures and in the low to mid 60s
over interior PR, in the low to mid 70s over western, north-central
and eastern interior PR and in the upper 70s to around 80 over other
lower elevation and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

A mid level ridge and the presence of Saharan dust over the region
will persist into the weekend and early next workweek. A surface high
over the Atlantic will gradually strengthen during the period,
maintaining easterly, to east-southeasterly this weekend onwards,
steering flow. This surface high is also helping steer smoke from
wildfires at Canada over the local islands, deteriorating air
quality. Precipitable water values are expected to be generally at
below normal values, as a patch of drier air approaches the region
through Saturday afternoon. More humid air is forecast to arrive by
Saturday evening, maintaining PWAT values up to around 1.8 to 1.9
in for the rest of the period. A tropical wave will move across
the eastern Caribbean around Tuesday. This is due to the mid level
ridge starting to weaken and and moisture pulling into the area
due to the east- southeast steering flow and increasing the
diurnal pattern, although model uncertainty remains. Although a
decrease in wind speeds are forecast during the next couple of
days, up to breezy conditions are forecast, next week. The diurnal
pattern will persist during the period with showers over windward
sectors, especially in the morning, and afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over interior to western Puerto Rico, due to diurnal
heating, sea breeze convergence and topographic effects, and
downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. An elevated risk of
flooding is forecast over interior to western Puerto Rico each
afternoon. The trade winds will also continue to bring patches of
clouds and showers from time to time. Highs will reach the upper
80s to low 90s, with heat indices over 100 degrees. A limited heat
risk will persist for most coastal and lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions expected. SHRA will move across the local
waters, reaching the VCTY of TIST, TISX, TJSJ & TJPS with little
impacts. SHRA and TSRA expected over interior to western PR after
around 06/17Z, with mountain obscuration over the interior.
Reduced visibilities and low ceilings possible for TJBQ. Winds
mainly from the E at 13-18kts with higher gusts after around
06/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will continue
to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds, shifting east
to southeast in the weekend. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop each afternoon over the western waters of Puerto Rico.
A tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean around
Tuesday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

The risk for rip currents is low today and tonight, however,
life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of
groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. By tomorrow evening, a moderate
risk of rip currents will be present for northern Puerto Rico,
Culebra and St. Croix. This moderate risk of rip currents will
possibly spread to the northern USVI and Vieques on Sunday and
southeastern Puerto Rico on Monday.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
404 AM AST Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


* Increasing surface winds will likely generate moderate to
locally fresh winds, resulting in wind-driven seas. Therefore,
small craft operators should exercise caution. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed across the offshore waters.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely to continue through
the weekend across most coastal and lower elevations of the
islands.A heat advisory could needed on Monday.

* Above-normal moisture associated with a tropical wave, along
with increasing instability, might result in a rise in showers
and thunderstorms by midweek next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Isolated morning showers will drift across the local waters,
primarily affecting the eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the
surrounding island, but are not expected to produce significant
rainfall accumulations through at least mid morning.

Showers amd cloud cover are expected to increase later this morning
as available moisture combines with daytime heating and local sea
breeze convergence, generating sufficient instability for convective
development by early afternoon. The main area of activity will be
over the western interior and northwestern Puerto Rico.
Additionally, CU lines may develop over La Sierra de Luquillo and
drift westward, potentially impacting the San Juan Metro area later
this afternoon.

A surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will
maintain an easterly wind flow, gradually shifting to an east-
southeasterly direction later today. As the high pressure
strengthens over the region, wind speeds are expected to
increase, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions across
the forecast area.

On Monday, a southerly component of the winds will increase the
potential for high temperatures...a Heat Advisory could be issued.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

Current model guidance has precipitable water (PWAT) values at up to
above normal to start the long term period as moisture, in part from
a tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea, is steered into the local
islands under east-southeast flow. However, a Saharan Air Layer
(SAL) will also reach the islands, promoting hazy skies. While PWAT
values will gradually decrease, a more notable mass of drier air is
forecast to arrive by Friday. A surface high pressure over the
Atlantic will continue building during the period, promoting breezy
to locally windy easterly to east-southeasterly steering flow. A mid-
level ridge will be present to start the period, but it will
gradually weaken as a mid-level low moves into the central Atlantic.
The typical diurnal pattern will continue with patches of moisture
and showers reaching windward sectors of the islands, especially
during the mornings and overnight hours, and with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms mainly over interior to western Puerto Rico due to
sea breeze convergence, diurnal heating and local effects. Lines of
showers can also develop downwind of the local islands and El
Yunque. An elevated flood potential will persist over interior to
western Puerto Rico. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s at
lower elevations and coastal areas , with heat indices over 100
degrees. A limited heat risk will persist for most coastal and lower
elevation areas. Lows will be in the 60s for higher elevations of
Puerto Rico and in the 70s to around 80 over lower elevations of the
islands. Although moisture will gradually decrease, the frequency of
showers could be higher due to an upper level trough from the
northeast, and another tropical wave moving into the Caribbean Sea
by the end of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z Taf)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Any SHRA that develops will be brief, ESE
winds and local effects can produce VCSH near TJBQ/TJSJ through
07/22Z, no impacts to operations expected. Winds from the ESE at
15- 20kts, with higher gusts, through 07/23Z when they are
expected to decrease. Winds will increase to similar values again
after 08/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...A surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic
will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trade winds,
shifting from the east to southeast over the weekend. This will
generate choppy conditions across the local waters mainly during
the peak of sea breeze wind speed enhancement. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon over the
western waters of Puerto Rico. Additionally, a tropical wave is
forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean around Tuesday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...Increasing winds across the region will continue
to elevate the threat of rip currents along most beaches in Puerto
Rico and USVI through the reminder of the weekend. As wind driven
seas build, hazardous swimming conditions will become more
widespread. Even when the rip currents threat is categorized as
low , dangerous rip currents can still form unexpectedly,
especially near structures such a piers, reefs, and jetties.
Beachgoers are reminded to remain vigilant and exercise caution
when entering the waters, regardless of the daily risk level.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
401 AM AST Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Increasing surface winds will likely generate moderate to
locally fresh winds, resulting in wind-driven seas. Therefore,
small craft operators should exercise caution. Small Craft
Advisories may be issued across the offshore waters by midweek.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely to continue through
the weekend across most coastal and lower elevations of the
islands.

* Above-normal moisture associated with a tropical wave, along
with increasing instability, might result in a rise in showers
and thunderstorms this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
Showers continue to move across the local waters, with some
affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern portions of
Puerto Rico, including the San JUan metro area, through the
overnight hours.While a few of these showers have briefly reduced
visibility, the rapid movement has limited rainfall accumulation,
preventing any significant rainfall totals.The current weather
pattern is expected to persist through the morning. As low level
humidity increases throughout the day, we can anticipate more
cloud cover and a higher chance of showers.

A tropical wave currently located about 1200 miles east of our
local region is expected to approach our region by late Monday,
sustaining above normal moisture through the week. This increase
moisture, combined with marginal upper level instability, will
fuel more showers and thunderstorms. Expect a daily elevated
flooding threat, increasing most afternoon, with western Puerto
Rico at the highest risk.

Starting on Monday...expect warmer than normal temperatures
fueled by an east southeast wind flow and high humidity, leading
to significantly elevated heat index, especially in urban and
coastal areas . At times, conditions may meet Heat Advisory
thresholds, posing health risks for many, particularly those
sensitive to heat or without proper cooling and hydration. Public
should stay alert and take action, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous
outdoor activities, and check on vulnerable individuals during a
heat advisory episode.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...

Up to above normal values of precipitable water (PWAT) are forecast
by mid-week as tropical moisture is steered into the local areas
under east to east-southeast flow. A surface high pressure over the
Atlantic will continue building during the period, promoting this
breezy to locally windy steering flow. A deep low over the central
Atlantic will weaken the mid level ridge currently over the islands
during most of the period; the mid level ridge will gradually
strengthen to end the period. A Saharan Air Layer will also be
present during most of the period, possibly bringing up to moderate
Saharan Dust accumulations and promoting hazy skies. A series of
upper troughs from the northeast and a tropical wave moving into the
Caribbean sea will also increase instability towards the end of the
forecast period. These features can also increase the frequency of
shower activity. A diurnal pattern will continue, although boosted
by increased deep moisture and above mentioned features, with
patches of moisture and showers reaching windward sectors of the
islands, especially during the mornings and overnight hours, and
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly over interior to
western Puerto Rico due to sea breeze convergence, diurnal heating
and local effects. Lines of showers can also develop downwind of the
local islands and El Yunque. An elevated flood potential will
persist over interior to western Puerto Rico. Latest Galvez-Davidson
Indices (GDI) show values ranging from 35 to 40 GDI, locally 40+
GDI, especially during the afternoons of Wednesday and Thursday.
These values indicate a potential for up to scattered thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy rainfall. Maximum temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s at lower elevations and coastal areas ,
with heat indices over 100 degrees. A limited heat risk will persist
for most coastal and lower elevation areas due to the east to east-
southeast flow. Minimum temperatures will be in the 60s for higher
elevations of Puerto Rico and in the 70s to around 80 over lower
elevations of the islands. Breezy to locally windy conditions will
also persist, particularly across coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Any SHRA in the area will be brief, ESE
winds and local effects can produce VCTS near TJBQ/TJSJ through
08/22Z. Winds from the ESE at 15- 20kts, with higher gusts,
through 08/23Z when they are expected to decrease. Winds will
increase to similar values again after 09/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high across the central Atlantic will maintain moderate
to locally fresh trade winds, shifting east to southeast today.
Each afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are likely over waters west
of Puerto Rico, so small craft operator should exercise caution.
on Tuesday a tropical wave will move across the Caribbean waters
south of our local waters, but close enough to increase moisture
and instability.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Winds are increasing, raising the risk of moderate, potentially
life threatening rip currents along Puerto Rico's northern and
eastern beaches tonight, with the threat spreading to Culebra and
the US virgin Islands by tomorrow and persisting for several
days. These stronger currents may pull swimmers away from shore
and make even strong swimmers vulnerable, posing serious hazards
to anyone in the surf zone. Beachgoers...If caught in a rip
current, swim parallel to shore until free, then return safely to
land.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A tropical wave moving south of the area will maintain above-
normal moisture. This, combined with local instability, will
result in a limited flooding risk across eastern half of Puerto
Rico and limited to elevated across the west.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist resulting in
choppy seas and a moderate risk of life-threatening rip
currents along most beaches throughout the week.

* Moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will persist at least
through Friday morning, promoting hazy skies and reduced air
quality, particularly in areas with limited shower activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Breezy to locally windy conditions overnight helped steer frequent,
fast-moving showers from the surrounding waters into eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. While brief, some showers were
persistent in certain areas, often followed by noticeable wind
gusts. Radar estimates since 8 PM AST indicate up to an inch of
rainfall, with no reports of flooding or significant impacts.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 60s across the higher elevations
of the Cordillera Central to the lower 80s along windward areas and
the local islands. Wind gusts associated with the passing showers
reached 20 to 30 mph across northeastern Puerto Rico and exposed
coastal sites in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

An upper-level trough meandering north of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands will maintain marginally unstable conditions through
midweek before merging with a broader system over the western
Atlantic on Wednesday. By Wednesday night into Thursday, mid-level
ridging is expected to reestablish itself over the region,
strengthening the trade wind inversion and promoting the entrainment
of drier air aloft. At the surface, a strong high-pressure system
over the central Atlantic will maintain breezy east-southeasterly
winds of 20 to 25 mph, with higher gusts, especially across coastal
and elevated areas.

A tropical wave will pass south of the local islands today,
gradually increasing available moisture. A second wave is forecast
to move through the same general area on Thursday, though its
associated moisture is also expected to remain largely south of the
region. In the meantime, moderate concentrations of Saharan dust
will persist, resulting in hazy skies, reduced air quality, and
temporary suppression of shower development. Moisture levels will
remain near climatological normals—between 1.6 and 1.9 inches—before
decreasing to below-normal values of around 1.2 to 1.3 inches by
Thursday night.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day,
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. The most
severe weather will likely occur over the interior and western to
northwestern portions of Puerto Rico, even on the driest days,
despite moderate concentrations of Saharan dust. Rain chances will
peak today through Wednesday as lingering tropical moisture
interacts with an upper-level trough. Although strong winds will
keep showers moving quickly, limiting the risk of prolonged heavy
rainfall, brief localized flooding remains possible in areas with
poor drainage.

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler starting today, but a
limited risk of excessive heat remains, particularly in urban and
coastal areas. The primary hazards during this period include
localized flooding, lightning associated with isolated
thunderstorms, and gusty winds, even in the absence of thunderstorm
activity. Additionally, visibility reductions and degraded air
quality due to Saharan dust will continue to be concerns across the
region.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

A surface high-pressure system over the Atlantic will promote
easterly winds throughout the forecast period, which will be
breezy, particularly along coastal areas. On Friday and Saturday,
calmer to typical weather conditions are expected, with a mid-
level ridge in place through at least Friday and drier air
prevailing in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Recent
model guidance suggests that precipitable water (PWAT) values will
range from below-normal to near-normal for this time of year,
around 1.3 to 1.6 inches. Nevertheless, isolated showers are
expected to affect the windward sectors of the islands, especially
during the morning and overnight hours, then afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will mainly impact interior and western Puerto
Rico due to sea breeze convergence, daytime heating, and local
effects. However, significant rainfall accumulations are not
anticipated, and the flood risk should remain from none to
limited. The moderate Saharan Air Layer is expected to decrease
by late Friday morning onward.

A shift in the weather pattern is expected as conditions become
more favorable for deep convection. An upper-level trough will
develop and linger near the region, promoting upper-level
ventilation and increasing atmospheric instability. Temperatures
at 500 mb will drop to near -8°C, and moisture will increase in
the mid to upper levels. Forecast models show PWAT values
increasing to above- normal levels, around 1.8 to over 2 inches.
As a result, a more wet and unstable pattern is expected from
Sunday into early next week. More frequent showers and isolated
thunderstorms are likely, with the strongest activity occurring in
the afternoons, especially across the interior and western parts
of Puerto Rico. There is an elevated flood risk for those areas,
as the expected rainfall could cause flooding in urban areas,
roadways, small streams, and washes.

Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across lower
elevations and coastal areas, with heat indices exceeding 100°F.
A limited heat risk will continue for most coastal and low
elevation areas due to prevailing east to east-southeast winds.
Minimum temperatures will fall into the 60s in higher elevations
and range from the 70s to near 80°F across lower elevations and
urban areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

SHRA/TSRA will likely impact TJSJ and USVI terminals throughout the
forecast period, with additional activity possible at TJBQ and TJPS
between 10/17-23Z. These may lead to brief MVFR conditions. A surge
of Saharan dust will maintain hazy skies, with visibility
occasionally reduced to 5–6 SM. Winds will generally remain from
8–12 kt overnight under land breeze influences, increasing to 15–20
kt with higher gusts after 10/13Z due to sea breeze development,
then gradually diminishing after 10/23Z. Gusty and variable winds
are also possible in and around stronger SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure system across the central Atlantic will
promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds. A wind surge will
further enhance wind speeds today. As a result, moderate to rough seas
will continue and small craft should exercise caution across most
waters and local Caribbean passages. Similar conditions will prevail
throughout the rest of the week. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop each afternoon, mainly over the western waters of Puerto
Rico.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Beachgoers, a moderate risk of rip currents will prevail this
week along most beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, mainly driven by breezy to locally windy
conditions. This means life-threatening rip currents are possible
along those areas. Beaches along western coast of Puerto Rico
will likely have a low risk through the workweek. For more
details, please refer to the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
402 AM AST Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
over western Puerto Rico in the afternoon—even on drier days.
Flooding risk will likely increase Sunday through Tuesday due to
higher moisture and instability.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue over the next
few days, causing choppy seas and a moderate risk of life-
threatening rip currents along most beaches.

* Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust will persist
through Thursday morning, with lighter dust lingering into
Friday, resulting in hazy skies and reduced visibility and air
quality.

* Fire danger risks may increase by the end of the workweek, as
drier conditions develop across the region.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Overnight, fast-moving showers frequently moved inland from
surrounding waters into eastern and northern Puerto Rico and St.
Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Breezy to locally windy
conditions persisted across coastal areas and nearby waters.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 60s in the higher elevations of
the Cordillera Central to around 80°F along coastal and island
regions.

The short-term forecast remains generally on track. A strengthening
surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue
to support breezy to locally windy east-southeast winds along
coastal areas. In addition, moderate to high concentrations of
Saharan dust will remain over the region through at least Friday.
These concentrations may worsen health issues for immunocompromised,
vulnerable, and sensitive individuals.

Today, variable weather conditions are expected across the region.
Moisture levels will remain near to slightly above normal,
influenced by a tropical wave currently located to the south of the
area, across the Caribbean waters. This, combined with marginal
instability in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, will
support the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms (500mb temperatures around -8.5 degrees C). As a
result, a typical pattern with passing showers are expected
throughout the day, with stronger activity concentrated over the
western portion of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. The flood
risk for today is limited—mainly across eastern Puerto Rico in the
morning, then shifting to the western area in the afternoon. This
could result in ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained
areas. There is a low chance of urban and small stream flooding.

By Thursday and into the end of the week, the frequency of showers
is expected to decrease due to reduced moisture levels and the
presence of a mid-level ridge, with drier air prevailing in the mid
to upper levels of the atmosphere. This pattern will result in
calmer weather conditions. However, the presence of Saharan dust may
cause temperatures to feel slightly warmer than normal. A limited
heat risk will persist each day across urban and coastal areas of
the islands. This level of heat primarily affects individuals who
are highly sensitive, especially those spending time outdoors
without effective cooling or proper hydration. Temperatures will
range from the upper 80s to low 90s in lower elevations and coastal
areas, with heat indices exceeding 100°F. Please take precautions
and remember to stay hydrated.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

A mid-level ridge will dominate through Saturday, promoting dry
air entrainment and keeping moisture levels below normal, with
precipitable water (PWAT) values under 1.6 inches. As the ridge
weakens, an upper-level trough will deepen and organize into a
closed low west of the region by late weekend. This will increase
instability and draw in additional moisture, briefly pushing
PWAT above 2.0 inches early next week.

At the surface, a broad high pressure system will support moderate
to locally fresh easterly to east-southeasterly winds, resulting
in breezy to locally windy conditions, especially along the coast
and exposed areas. Temperatures will be near normal Saturday,
dip slightly on Sunday, then trend above normal through midweek
due to warmer low-level air and more southeasterly flow.

Rainfall activity will remain limited Saturday but is expected to
increase Sunday into Tuesday as the combination of deeper
moisture and instability favor more organized showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly over western to northwestern and eastern
Puerto Rico. Urban and small stream flooding, along with
localized flash flooding, will be possible in areas of heavier
rainfall. By midweek, conditions should return to more typical
shower pattern; however, this will depend on how long the upper-
level low lingers before shifting eastward and away from the
region.

Overall, elevated risk for excessive rainfall and localized
flooding is likely Sunday into Tuesday, with excessive heat,
breezy conditions, and lightning impacts also possible at times.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions across most terminals are expected, however
-RA and VCSH will likely impact TJSJ and USVI terminals over the
next hours. Additional activity is possible near TJBQ area between
11/17-23Z. These may lead to intermittent/brief MVFR conditions.
Saharan dust concentrations will maintain hazy skies, with
visibility occasionally reduced to 5–6 SM. The other main aviation
concern will be the increasing winds to 15–20 kt with higher gusts
after 11/13Z to 11/14Z, then gradually diminishing during the
evening hours.


&&

.MARINE...

A broad surface high pressure system over the North Atlantic will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds,
leading to choppy seas across most local waters and the Caribbean
passages. Small craft should exercise caution. These conditions
are expected to persist through the remainder of the workweek and
into the weekend. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may develop
each day, mainly affecting the northern and western coastal waters
of Puerto Rico.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected along coastal
areas, especially at exposed spots, contributing to a moderate
risk of life-threatening rip currents. While non-exposed western
beaches will have a lower rip current risk, isolated stronger
currents may still develop near piers, jetties, and channels. In
terms of weather, morning showers are likely across eastern Puerto
Rico, followed by isolated thunderstorms in the northern and
western coastal areas during the afternoon. Beachgoers should
remain cautious—swim near lifeguards, avoid strong currents, and
stay alert to gusty winds and changing weather. For the latest
information, please refer to the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southern Puerto Rico continues to experience significant dryness,
with the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) exceeding
550—indicating dry and receptive fuels in fire-prone areas. In
addition, 30- and 60-day rainfall deficits reflect ongoing drying
trends across the region. Breezy winds around 15-20 mph, with
gusts over 25 mph, could contribute to fire spread if an ignition
occurs. However, relative humidity values are expected to remain
above critical thresholds, helping to limit the overall fire
danger. Taking all factors into account, fire danger remains low
today, but may increase on Thursday due to potentially drier
conditions.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
400 AM AST Thu Jun 12 2025

KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy to windy conditions will support a moderate risk of life-
threatening rip currents, choppy seas, and may blow unsecured
objects, creating hazards for swimmers, small boats, and
property.

* Elevated fire danger is expected today and will likely extend
through Saturday, increasing wildfire risk—especially in
southern Puerto Rico. Please avoid outdoor burning and stay
alert.

* Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust will maintain
reduced visibility and air quality through Friday, potentially
affecting those with respiratory sensitivities.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms development is likely every
day, with flooding risks increasing from Sunday through Tuesday,
posing threats to life and property.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

A quiet night was observed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Satellite and radar imagery registered limited, fast-moving
showers over the surrounding waters, with just a few spotty showers
reaching portions of eastern Puerto Rico, resulting in very low
rainfall accumulations. Breezy to locally windy conditions persisted
across coastal areas and nearby waters. Surface weather stations and
buoys across southeastern Puerto Rico, near San Juan, between
Vieques and Culebra, and throughout the USVI recorded maximum wind
gusts ranging from 20 to nearly 30 mph during the overnight period.
Temperatures ranged from the mid to upper 60s in the higher
elevations of the Cordillera Central to mainly the mid-70s to around
80°F along coastal areas.

A broad surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will
continue to support breezy to locally windy east-southeast winds.
Aloft, the upper-level trough to the east will continue drifting
into the central Atlantic basin, while a mid-level ridge will
dominate from the northwest. As anticipated, starting today, a drier
air mass will enter the area, extending into the mid to upper levels
of the atmosphere. The latest models suggest precipitable water
(PWAT) values will remain below 1.6 inches through at least next
Saturday, which is considered below average values for this time of
the year. In addition, moderate to locally high concentrations of
Saharan dust will persist over the region through at least Friday
morning.

As a result, in terms of rainfall, weather conditions will continue
to improve throughout the forecast period. However, local effects
and diurnal heating, combined with the available low-level moisture,
will enhance afternoon convection each day, with isolated showers
and thunderstorms expected across western Puerto Rico. The flood
risk for today and the next two days remains limited—mainly across
the far western corner of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours.
This could lead to ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained
areas. There is a low chance of urban and small stream flooding.

Keep in mind that the presence of Saharan dust and limited rain
activity may cause temperatures to feel warmer than usual. A limited
heat risk will persist each day across the urban and coastal areas
of the islands. This level of heat primarily affects individuals who
are highly sensitive, especially those spending time outdoors
without adequate cooling or proper hydration. Temperatures will
range from the upper 80s to low 90s in lower elevations and coastal
areas, with heat indices exceeding 100°F. Please take necessary
precautions and remember to stay hydrated.

Overall, breezy conditions, the presence of Saharan dust, and
limited rainfall will persist. However, locally induced convection
is likely to develop daily across western Puerto Rico, with a few
short-lived thunderstorms possible and a limited heat risk
continuing across coastal and urban areas.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Long-term guidance remains mostly unchanged, with minor
adjustments reflecting a later and shorter southward dip of the
upper-level trough. This trough is expected to deepen and form a
closed low northwest of the region by Sunday, shifting west early
next week before moving away by midweek. This will increase
atmospheric instability by cooling mid-level temperatures,
weakening the trade wind cap inversion, and increasing the amount
of moisture. As a result, precipitable water values are forecast
to rise above 2.0 inches—above normal for this time of year—with
Sunday and Monday likely being the wettest days. Moisture levels
are expected to return to near normal (1.6 to 1.9 inches) for the
remainder of the week.

At the surface, a broad high-pressure system will maintain
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds, producing breezy to
locally windy conditions, especially along the coast and exposed
areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Sunday through
Tuesday, then trend warmer from Wednesday onward due to higher
low-level temperatures, decreased cloud cover, and reduced
rainfall chances.

Rainfall is expected to increase from Sunday through Tuesday as
deeper moisture and instability support more organized afternoon
showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily over central,
western, and northern Puerto Rico, including parts of the San Juan
metropolitan area. Meanwhile, breezy trade winds will bring
frequent showers overnight and early morning to eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Urban and small stream flooding,
along with localized flash flooding, is possible in areas with
heavier or prolonged rain. A return to a more typical shower
pattern is expected later in the week, depending on how far the
upper-level trough sinks into the Caribbean before moving away.

Overall, hazards such as excessive heat, gusty winds, and
lightning will remain at limited risk levels; however, the risk
of excessive rainfall and localized flooding will increase,
especially from Sunday through at least Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with
drier airmass across the region. SHRA to -RA are expected after 18Z
across western Puerto Rico and some may reach portions of the
vicinity of TJBQ at times. Brief periods of reduced VIS and low
ceilings possible. Additionally, Saharan dust expected to result in
hazy skies with VIS at 5-8SM. Breezy to locally windy conditions
will continue today after 13Z. Sea breeze variations and maximum
gusts nearly 28 to 30 knots. Slightly lighter winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

A broad surface high pressure over the North Atlantic will
continue to generate moderate to locally fresh easterly winds,
causing choppy seas across most local waters and Caribbean
passages. Small craft operators should remain cautious. These
conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the
workweek and into the weekend. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms
may develop daily, mainly over the northern and western coastal
waters of Puerto Rico. Thunderstorm activity is likely to increase
by the end of the weekend into early next week.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected today,
maintaining a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along
most local beaches, especially in exposed coastal areas. Non-
exposed western beaches will have a lower risk, though isolated
stronger currents may still develop near piers, jetties, and
channels. Morning showers are likely across eastern Puerto Rico,
followed by isolated afternoon thunderstorms in northern and
western coastal areas. This moderate rip current risk is expected
to persist over the next few days, with some beaches briefly
transitioning to a low risk. Looking ahead, a high rip current
risk is possible early next week for St. Croix. Beachgoers should
swim near lifeguards, avoid strong currents, and remain vigilant
for gusty winds and changing weather conditions. For the latest
information, please refer to the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southern Puerto Rico remains very dry, with high KBDI values and
significant rainfall deficits over the past 30–60 days. Today’s
breezy to locally windy conditions combined with low humidity
increases the risk of fire spread. Fire danger has been briefly
elevated recently, but a prolonged period of elevated fire danger
is expected today, prompting a Fire Danger Statement for southern
Puerto Rico. For details on today’s fire danger risk and expected
conditions, please see the Fire Danger Statement (RFDSJU).

The ongoing drying trend and extended periods of elevated fire
danger remain a serious concern. Breezy to windy conditions and
continued drying are expected through Friday and Saturday.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Fire weather conditions remain a concern, especially across
southern Puerto Rico, where dry and breezy weather will keep the
risk for wildfire spread elevated through at least Saturday.
Please avoid outdoor burning and use extreme caution with any
activity that could spark a fire.

* Daily rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected, with the highest flood risk from Sunday through
Tuesday. Deep moisture and instability could lead to urban,
small stream, or localized flash flooding, especially in flood-
prone or already saturated areas.

* Breezy to windy conditions will continue, bringing choppy seas,
life- threatening rip currents, and the chance for blown
unsecured objects. These conditions may pose hazards for
swimmers, boaters, and coastal communities—exercise caution if
heading outdoors or near the water.

* Saharan dust will linger through midday today, reducing
visibility and air quality. Those with respiratory sensitivities
should take necessary precautions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Overall, a quiet night was observed across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, except for a fast-moving line of showers over
northern Puerto Rico, which brought up to 0.40 inches of rainfall,
based on radar estimates. Breezy conditions continued across coastal
areas and nearby waters. Temperatures ranged from the mid to upper
60s in the higher elevations of the Cordillera Central to the mid-
70s to around 80°F along the coast.

The short-term forecast remains generally on track. Moderate
concentrations of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will linger over the
local area through this morning across the western half of Puerto
Rico, followed by lower concentrations for the remainder of the
forecast period. The Bermuda High will continue to support breezy to
locally windy easterly winds. A drier-than-normal air mass dominates
the region, extending into the mid to upper levels of the
atmosphere. The latest models suggest precipitable water (PWAT)
values will generally remain below 1.6 inches through at least
tomorrow, which is considered below average for this time of year.
Small patches of PWAT values around 1.75 inches are possible during
the afternoon hours.

As a result, rainfall conditions are expected to be similar to
yesterday, when mainly quiet weather prevailed. However, local
effects and diurnal heating, combined with available low-level
moisture, will enhance afternoon convection each day across
Mayaguez and its vicinity. Mid-level temperatures will slightly
warm today and tomorrow to between -6°C and -7°C, but isolated
thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out. The flood risk for
today and Saturday remains limited—mainly across the far western
corner of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. This could lead
to ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas. There is
a low chance of urban and small stream flooding.

A shift in the weather pattern is expected on Sunday as conditions
become more favorable for rain. An upper-level trough will develop
and linger near the region, promoting upper-level ventilation and
increasing atmospheric instability. This trough is expected to
deepen and form a closed low northwest of the region by Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. Temperatures at 500 mb will drop to near -8°C
to -9°C, and moisture will increase in the mid to upper levels.
Forecast models show PWAT values increasing to above-normal
levels—exceeding 2 inches. As a result, a wetter and more unstable
pattern is expected from Sunday onward. More frequent showers and
isolated thunderstorms are likely, with the strongest activity
occurring in the afternoons. There is an elevated flood risk for
those areas, as the expected rainfall could lead to flooding in
urban areas, roadways, small streams, and washes.

A limited heat risk is forecast across the urban and coastal areas
of northern and western Puerto Rico each day. This level of heat
primarily affects individuals who are highly sensitive, especially
those spending time outdoors without adequate cooling or proper
hydration. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s in
lower elevations and coastal areas, with heat indices exceeding
100°F mainly in the aforementioned areas. Please take necessary
precautions and remember to stay hydrated.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

The workweek will begin wet and unstable, with abundant moisture
and atmospheric instability supporting frequent showers and
thunderstorms through at least Wednesday. An upper-level low
lingering over the region will keep mid-level temperatures cooler
and weaken the trade wind cap, allowing rainfall potential to
rise, especially on Monday and Tuesday, when precipitable water
values are forecast to exceed 2.0 inches—above normal for this
time of year. Moisture levels are expected to decrease to near-
normal values, ranging from 1.5 to 1.9 inches, for the remainder
of the week, with Thursday night likely being the driest period.

At the surface, a strong Bermuda-Azores High will maintain
moderate to locally strong easterly winds, producing breezy to
windy conditions, especially along the coast and exposed areas.
Temperatures will remain cooler through Tuesday, both during the
day and at night, before gradually warming from Wednesday onward
as sunshine increases and rainfall chances decrease.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be most frequent and
organized early in the week. Overnight and early morning activity
will primarily impact eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, shifting to central, western, and northern Puerto Rico,
including parts of the San Juan metropolitan area, from late
morning through the evening. Heavy or prolonged rainfall may lead
to urban and small stream flooding, as well as localized flash
flooding. As soils become saturated, the risk of landslides will
increase. Later in the week, conditions are expected to return to
a more typical pattern of scattered showers.

Overall, risks from excessive heat, strong winds, and lightning
remain low. However, the elevated threat of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will continue through midweek before gradually
easing. And importantly, no tropical cyclone formation are
expected over the next seven days—providing us with a much-needed
window of calm and peace of mind.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Mainly VFR conditions expected during this period, a drier airmass
remains in place. SHRA to -RA due to local effects are expected
after 18Z across western Puerto Rico and some may reach portions of
the vicinity of TJBQ at times. Saharan dust concentration will
decrease today allowing better VIS. Main aviation concern: breezy to
locally windy conditions once again today after 13Z. Sea breeze
variations and maximum gusts nearly 28 to 30 knots. Slightly lighter
winds overnight.


&&

.MARINE...

The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to promote moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds across the northeast Caribbean
through early next week, leading to choppy seas. A tropical wave
will move south of the local islands from today through Saturday,
followed by another wave expected to approach the region by mid-
week. In the meantime, increasing moisture and instability
associated with an upper-level trough will likely result in a rise
in thunderstorm activity late this weekend into early next week.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy to windy conditions will keep a moderate risk of dangerous
rip currents along most local beaches over the next few days,
especially in areas exposed to open water. Western beaches that
are more sheltered will have a lower risk, but stronger currents
can still form near piers, jetties, and channels. Only a few
showers or storms are expected today and Saturday, but anyone
visiting west to northwest Puerto Rico should stay alert for
lightning from isolated thunderstorms. Increasing moisture and
instability from an upper-level system will likely lead to more
thunderstorm activity late this weekend into early next week, so
keep an eye on the forecast.

Looking ahead, a high risk of rip currents is possible around
mid- week next week for St. Croix. Always swim near a lifeguard,
avoid strong currents, and stay alert to changing weather and
gusty winds. For the latest updates, check the Surf Zone Forecast
(SRFSJU).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Today's weather conditions are expected to remain largely
unchanged, with southern Puerto Rico still experiencing very dry
conditions, elevated Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values,
and significant to critical rainfall deficits over the past 30 to
60 days. Breezy to locally windy conditions, combined with low
humidity, will continue to create an environment favorable for the
rapid spread of fires. Fire danger activity has increased in
recent days, and today's forecast supports another prolonged
period of elevated fire weather, prompting the issuance of a Fire
Danger Statement for the southern coastal plains and hills of
Puerto Rico.

The ongoing drying trend, along with continued breezy to windy
conditions, is expected to persist through Saturday. Residents and
land management officials should remain alert and take all
necessary precautions. For full details, please refer to the
latest Fire Danger Statement (RFDSJU).

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A developing upper-level low is lingering just north of the region
and will continue to influence the area through midweek. This
feature will support the development of showers and thunderstorms
across local waters and portions of the islands from today through
at least midweek.

* Hazy skies are expected due to a weak Saharan Air Layer, with the
highest concentrations of dust occurring today and Monday. This
may lead to slightly reduced visibility and a decline in air
quality across the region.

* Winds are expected to increase by midweek, resulting in breezy to
locally windy conditions across coastal areas. Choppy seas are
likely, especially in exposed marine zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Mostly fair conditions prevailed once again tonight across the CWA,
with passing showers mainly over the regional waters and some moving
over windward sections. Winds continue slowing down, with a few
stations such as Cabo Rojo and Vieques reached 20 maximum wind gusts
of 20 mph. Similar to yesterday, minimum temperatures remained
seasonal with stations in urban and lower elevations ranging in the
mid 70s to lower 80s and higher elevations in the low to mid 60s.

The short-term forecast remains on track but with slight changes.
The broad surface high pressure is still expected to promote
easterly-southeasterly winds throughout the forecast period, with a
slight reduction today and an increase by Tuesday. The upper-level
love located north of the CWA is now expected to linger through
Monday and then migrate east by Tuesday. Based on the latest GEOS-
5/GMAO dust extinction product, the arrival of a Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) is expected by this afternoon through at least
Tuesday. The difference compared to the previous analysis is that
moderate concentrations should reach the local islands earlier
than expected (originally, by Monday afternoon), which introduces
uncertainty regarding the shower activity expected this afternoon
and later tonight. Nevertheless, deterministic guidance from the
GFS and ECMWF continues suggesting the increase to above-normal
PWAT values (1.9 - 2.0 inches) due to the increase in mid-to-
upper-level moisture over the CWA, which can be observed in the
latest satellite-derived products. Additionally, the presence of
the upper-level low will coll 500 mb (around -8 Celsius),
increasing instability aloft and supporting deep convection
activity. The Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) also continues
highlighting the potential of isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms
over the region during the forecast period.

Overall, the hazards and impacts remain the same for the short-term
forecast. The afternoon convection is expected each day, mainly over
interior and western/northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. The
frequency of showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase
slowing down tonight into early Monday, affecting mainly portions of
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The flooding risk
will remain limited to elevated over the aforementioned areas,
including possible slippery pavement, reduced visibility, and
possible urban and small stream flooding. Over periods without
significant rainfall activity, suspended Saharan Dust will likely
promote hazy skies, reduced visibility, and deteriorate air quality,
affecting those sensitive to these particles.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Model guidance indicates changes in the forecast, as the TUTT low is
now expected to move away from the region much faster than suggested
in previous model cycles. By Wednesday, the TUTT low is forecast to
be positioned northwest of Puerto Rico, with upper-level dynamics
showing reduced favorability for deep convective activity compared
to earlier runs. 500 mb temperatures are now projected to range
between -5 and -6 Celsius, which is slightly warmer than the
climatological normal. This will result in marginal instability,
which is expected to persist through the remainder of the long-
term forecast period. As a result, POPs have been slightly reduced
to reflect the expected decrease in convective potential.
However, further adjustments may be necessary as models come into
better agreement.

The determining factor for shower activity will be moisture
availability, with significant fluctuations in precipitable water
values. These values are expected to range from as low as 1.45
inches on Wednesday to nearly 2.0 inches by Thursday, with a similar
pattern expected to repeat from Friday through Sunday. Moisture will
remain mostly concentrated south of the local islands, with
intermittent patches of drier and more humid air streaming across
the region.

Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain an
east-southeast wind flow across the northeastern Caribbean. The
local pressure gradient is also expected to tighten, resulting in
the return of breezy to locally windy conditions across coastal
areas through the long-term forecast period. As a result, the
weather pattern will favor shower and thunderstorm activity that
follows a typical diurnal cycle, with overnight and morning showers
over windward coastal areas, followed by afternoon convection
developing over interior and western Puerto Rico. The areal coverage
of this activity will largely depend on available moisture.

The prevailing east-southeast wind flow will also contribute to
warmer temperatures across the local islands. The heat threat will
largely depend on moisture content, with the greatest risk occurring
on days with high humidity, as this will significantly increase heat
index values and the potential for heat-related impacts. Residents
and visitors are advised to take precautionary measures during peak
heating hours, including staying well-hydrated, wearing light and
breathable clothing, limiting direct sun exposure, and taking
regular breaks when engaging in outdoor activities.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06z TAFs)

Mostly VFR conds across all terminals. E-SE winds will bring TSRA
over western-northwestern Puerto Rico , most likely VCTS over TJBQ
which can also bring around 14/17z. Winds will slightly decrease,
exptd btwn 12 - 17 kt, and gsty winds btwn 20 - 22 kt after 14/13z,
reducing btwn 8 - 10 kt for most TAF sites and VRB for JPS around
14/23z.

&&

.MARINE...

The surface high pressure north of the region will continue to
gradually shift east over the coming days. While some fluctuations
in the wind pattern are expected, winds will generally remain from
the east to east-southeast through the period, gentle to moderate
through Tuesday, then increasing to moderate to locally fresh by
Tuesday night across the regional waters. As winds increase, seas
will become choppy, especially in exposed areas. A plume of suspended
Saharan dust is expected to reach the region today and linger
through midweek, potentially causing a slight reduction in visibility.
Meanwhile, increasing moisture and instability associated with an
upper-level trough will likely lead to a rise in thunderstorm
activity from today into early in the week.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Moderate rip current risks will continue over the next few days,
particularly at beaches exposed to prevailing winds and open ocean
conditions. While some western beaches tend to be more sheltered,
caution is still advised near jetties, piers, and channels where
stronger currents may still develop.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly
during the afternoon over interior and western Puerto Rico.
Beachgoers should remain alert, as any thunderstorm can produce
dangerous lightning and rapidly changing conditions. Increasing
moisture and upper-level instability may continue to support periods
of thunderstorm activity through early this week.

Visitors are encouraged to swim near lifeguards when possible, avoid
strong surf, and stay informed on the latest weather updates.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
517 AM AST Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An upper-level low meandering north of the region today through
Wednesday and abundant moisture content will support the
development of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons.

* Hazy skies are expected through most of the workweek due to a
weak Saharan Air Layer, reducing visibility and affecting air
quality.

* Increasing winds will result in breezy to locally windy
conditions across coastal areas. Choppy seas are likely
especially in exposed waters, small craft should exercise
caution.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Overnight radar and satellite imagery indicated partly to variably
cloudy skies over the local islands, primarily due to a persistent
layer of mid- to upper-level clouds that has lingered since
yesterday. A few light showers brushed windward coastal areas, while
more active showers and isolated thunderstorms developed over the
Mona Channel and along the eastern coast of Hispaniola. These
conditions are associated with a TUTT-low currently located north of
Puerto Rico. Additional showers are expected to develop over
regional waters and move across the eastern portions of the islands
during the morning hours. Wind speeds are gradually increasing, with
some coastal weather stations reporting maximum gusts in the low to
mid-20s mph overnight, slightly higher than those observed the
previous night.

The GEOS-5 model indicates the presence of suspended Saharan dust
over the region, which is expected to persist through at least
Wednesday. This will result in hazy skies, particularly in areas
experiencing limited shower activity. Breezy to locally windy
conditions are forecast to return today and persist through the end
of the forecast period, as the pressure gradient over the
northeastern Caribbean strengthens.

As the TUTT-low and its associated surface trough continue to move
westward, another cut-off low is forecast to develop to the
northeast. This will place the local area between the two systems in
an upper-level omega-like pattern, characterized by some ridging
aloft. Although the ridge is not expected to be particularly strong,
it will contribute to increasing upper-level stability, especially
by Wednesday. Significant moisture variability is anticipated
throughout the period, with precipitable water (PWAT) values
decreasing from approximately 2.10 inches today to around 1.40
inches by Wednesday. This reduction is primarily due to mid-level
drying, as relative humidity in the 700-500 mb layer is forecast to
drop from 70-80% today to 30-40% by midweek, in response to the
evolving upper-level pattern.

As a result, today is expected to be the wettest day of the forecast
period, driven by the combination of the TUTT-low and above-normal
moisture levels. Partial cloud cover may somewhat limit surface
heating, which could inhibit the development of afternoon
convection. However, sufficient dynamical forcing is still expected
to support some convective activity later this afternoon. For the
remainder of the short-term forecast, shower activity will generally
follow the typical diurnal pattern, with reduced areal coverage due
to decreasing moisture availability. Afternoon thunderstorms will
continue to develop but are expected to be more localized. A limited
to elevated flooding threat may accompany the strongest activity,
with the highest risk occurring during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Variable conditions are expected for the long-term forecast.
Easterly-southeasterly winds will dominate most of the period due to
a surface high pressure over the western Atlantic. Based on the
latest global guidance, Precipitable Water values will gradually
increase by the end of the workweek due to a tropical wave
currently located over the eastern Atlantic. The latest TWD puts
the axis of the tropical wave southeast of the CWA early on
Thursday, however, model solutions locate the highest PWATs south
of the region. By Friday into Saturday, moisture associated to
the tropical wave is expected to pool over the region, but
suspended Saharan dust lingering over the region may suppress
significant shower activity over the local area. The presence of a
mid- level ridge over the CWA should limit deeper convection
activity during that period as well, with warmer 500 mb
temperatures (around -5 Celsius). Sunday may also be the "driest"
day of the long- term, based on recent guidance, with PWAT value
decreasing to below normals (around 1.4 inches), with RH values in
the low to mid levels plummeting to 10%. Although deeper convection
activity may be limited, the combination of diurnal heating, sea
breeze convergence, and local effects could enhance shallow
convection over western/northwestern PR each afternoon. Another
tropical wave should approach the local islands by Sunday night
into Monday, pooling well above normal moisture (2.0 - 2.2
inches). Temperatures in the 500 mb layer should cool to seasonal
to near below normals (- 7 to - 8 Celsius), supporting deep
convection activity. The frequency of showers and thunderstorms
should increase across the CWA, but there's uncertainty due
variations in previous model cycles.

Under an E-SE wind flow with abundant moisture, heat indexes are
likely to exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit each day, mainly over urban
and coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Hence, the risk will remain
limited, affecting individuals sensitive to heat.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Mostly VFR at all TAF sites durg prd but VCSH at TJSJ and USVI
terminals til 16/14Z. Mstly isold passing SHRA ovr regional waters
en route btw islands. Aftn VCSH/Isold TsrA psbl ovr ctrl interior
and west PR til 16/23Z...some may briefly impact areas in and around
TJBQ. SFC wnd fm E-SE 12-18 knots with local sea breezes accompanied
by higher gusts. Wnds bcmg less than 10 kts aft 16/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...

The surface high pressure northeast of the region will continue to
gradually shift east over the coming days. While some fluctuations in
the wind pattern are expected, moderate to locally fresh winds from
the east to east- southeast will promote choppy conditions mainly
over exposed areas, small craft should exercise caution. A plume of
suspended Saharan dust is expected to linger through midweek,
potentially causing a slight reduction in visibility. Meanwhile,
increasing moisture and instability associated with an upper-level
trough will likely lead to a rise in thunderstorm activity into early
in the week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Increasing winds will maintain the moderate risk of rip currents
for most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Beachgoers must exercise caution due possible life-threatening
rip currents along these beaches. They should also stay weather
alert due possible shower and thunderstorm activity in the
afternoon that may move over the coastal areas particularly over
western/northwestern Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A limited heat threat is expected, with heat index values forecast
to rise above 100F in urban and coastal areas.

* Hazy skies will persist due to concentrations of a Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) over the region through Wednesday, gradually
decreasing by the end of the workweek.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across the
region for the next few days, promoting choppy seas and moderate
risk of rip currents.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Mostly fair conditions prevailed last night, with few passing
showers moving over the Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters.
Breezy to locally windy conditions continued during the night, with
some gusts above 20 mph recorded at stations in Cayey and Aibonito
in Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands (21, 22, and
24 mph respectively). Minimum temperatures were slightly cooler and
ranged from the mid 70s to the lower 80s in urban and lower
elevations, and from low to upper 60s at higher elevations.

No major changes were introduced to the short-term forecast. A
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean
will continue promoting breezy to locally windy conditions under a
E-ESE wind flow for the rest of the forecast period. Based on
satellite-derived products, there's a drier air mass in the mid-
levels south of the region which, according to the latest model
guidance, should filter into the region later tonight.
Additionally, temperatures in the 500 mb should be warmer than
normal based on climatology (-5 to -5.5 Celsius), not favorable
for deep convection activity. Based on GEOS-5/GMAO, low to
moderate Saharan Air Layer (SAL) concentrations are expected to
linger through at least Wednesday, bringing hazy skies, reduced
visibility, and deteriorating air quality. In the upper levels,
the cut-off lows north of the region and a weak ridge over the CWA
will form an omega block, increasing stability aloft. According
to the GFS and ECMWF deterministic analysis, PWAT values will
gradually decrease to about 1.4 inches, falling into the below
climatological normal range. Nevertheless, local effects, daytime
heating, and sea breeze convergence should trigger shower and
thunderstorm activity each afternoon, particularly over
western/northwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations could
enhance flooding potential today, and no flooding risk for the
Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical wave will approach the region
by Thursday night, with the best moisture content remaining south
of the region.

Heat indexes may surpass the 100 degrees Fahrenheit across most
urban and coastal areas today, nevertheless, the heat risk will
remain limited..

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Variable conditions are still expected for the long-term forecast.
Moisture associated with a tropical wave is expected to increase the
frequency of showers and thundershowers on Friday into Saturday.
Based on GFS and ECMWF deterministic analysis, ensemble members
continue suggesting an increase in moisture content, but there is
quite a bit of variability regarding PWAT values (1.5 - 2.0 inches).
Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms should develop mainly on
Friday afternoon into early Saturday, particularly over
western/northwestern Puerto Rico moving over the local waters.
Then, drier air mass in the mid- levels should filter into the
region, with relative humidities dropping to 15 - 20%. This can
be seen in the temperatures at 500 mb where they again warm
(around -6 Celsius), which may inhibit deep convection activity.
Model solutions continue suggesting the arrival of another
tropical wave for Monday, raising PWAT values between 1.8 to 2.0
inches (near above-normal). The most likely scenario is to see
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage across the local area,
elevating the flooding potential. Nevertheless, uncertainty
remains elevated due to variability in previous model cycles.
Winds may increase by Monday into Tuesday, promoting windy
conditions across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mostly VFR conds across all terminals. HZ may reduce VIS due to low
to moderate concentrations of SAL over the CWA through all TAF prd.
Aftn conv over western PR may bring VCTS for JBQ btwn 1716z - 1723z.
Increasing winds from the E-ESE btwn 15 - 19 with gsty winds btwn 25
- 29, slightly reducing btwn 9 - 11 kt after 1723z.

&&

.MARINE...

A persistent Atlantic subtropical ridge extending southward into the
northern Caribbean will continue to strengthen throughout the
period. This will lead to increasing moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds, resulting in choppy seas, particularly over exposed
areas. Therefore, small craft should exercise caution. A plume of
suspended Saharan dust is expected to linger through the workweek,
reducing visibility. A tropical wave will move across the Caribbean
waters on Thursday, likely leading to an increase in thunderstorm
activity across that region.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy to locally windy conditions continue across the CWA,
maintaining a moderate risk of rip currents for most beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The moderate risk should
persist throughout the workweek into the weekend, beachgoers must
exercise caution due to possible life-threatening rip currents along
these beaches. Showers and thunderstorms that may develop in the
afternoon over western/northwestern Puerto Rico could move over
coastal areas, hence, they should also stay weather alert.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather conditions are expected to deteriorate today, Tuesday,
as winds increase and a gradual decrease in moisture unfolds across
the region, following the relatively moister conditions observed on
Monday. The southern coastal plains are forecast to experience the
lowest relative humidity values, increasing the risk of fire
development and spread.

The 30-day rainfall percent of normal has declined to between 10-50%
across the southern areas, resulting in increasing areal coverage of
drying soils. With dry fuels already in place, the combination of
strengthening winds and decreasing humidity is likely to promote
more favorable conditions for enhanced wildfire potential,
particularly across wind-prone areas.

Given these evolving conditions, a Fire Danger Statement is in
effect for the southern coastal plains and hills of Puerto Rico.

Residents and land management officials should continue to exercise
caution and follow any guidance in place. Refer to the latest Fire
Danger Statement (RFDSJU) for more information.

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A limited heat threat is expected, with heat index values forecast
to rise above 100F in urban and coastal areas.

* Hazy skies will persist due to concentrations of a Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) over the region through Wednesday, gradually
decreasing by the end of the workweek.

* Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue across the
region for the next few days, promoting choppy seas and moderate
risk of rip currents.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Mostly fair conditions prevailed last night, with few passing
showers moving over the Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters.
Breezy to locally windy conditions continued during the night, with
some gusts above 20 mph recorded at stations in Cayey and Aibonito
in Puerto Rico and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands (21, 22, and
24 mph respectively). Minimum temperatures were slightly cooler and
ranged from the mid 70s to the lower 80s in urban and lower
elevations, and from low to upper 60s at higher elevations.

No major changes were introduced to the short-term forecast. A
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean
will continue promoting breezy to locally windy conditions under a
E-ESE wind flow for the rest of the forecast period. Based on
satellite-derived products, there's a drier air mass in the mid-
levels south of the region which, according to the latest model
guidance, should filter into the region later tonight.
Additionally, temperatures in the 500 mb should be warmer than
normal based on climatology (-5 to -5.5 Celsius), not favorable
for deep convection activity. Based on GEOS-5/GMAO, low to
moderate Saharan Air Layer (SAL) concentrations are expected to
linger through at least Wednesday, bringing hazy skies, reduced
visibility, and deteriorating air quality. In the upper levels,
the cut-off lows north of the region and a weak ridge over the CWA
will form an omega block, increasing stability aloft. According
to the GFS and ECMWF deterministic analysis, PWAT values will
gradually decrease to about 1.4 inches, falling into the below
climatological normal range. Nevertheless, local effects, daytime
heating, and sea breeze convergence should trigger shower and
thunderstorm activity each afternoon, particularly over
western/northwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations could
enhance flooding potential today, and no flooding risk for the
Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical wave will approach the region
by Thursday night, with the best moisture content remaining south
of the region.

Heat indexes may surpass the 100 degrees Fahrenheit across most
urban and coastal areas today, nevertheless, the heat risk will
remain limited..

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Variable conditions are still expected for the long-term forecast.
Moisture associated with a tropical wave is expected to increase the
frequency of showers and thundershowers on Friday into Saturday.
Based on GFS and ECMWF deterministic analysis, ensemble members
continue suggesting an increase in moisture content, but there is
quite a bit of variability regarding PWAT values (1.5 - 2.0 inches).
Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms should develop mainly on
Friday afternoon into early Saturday, particularly over
western/northwestern Puerto Rico moving over the local waters.
Then, drier air mass in the mid- levels should filter into the
region, with relative humidities dropping to 15 - 20%. This can
be seen in the temperatures at 500 mb where they again warm
(around -6 Celsius), which may inhibit deep convection activity.
Model solutions continue suggesting the arrival of another
tropical wave for Monday, raising PWAT values between 1.8 to 2.0
inches (near above-normal). The most likely scenario is to see
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage across the local area,
elevating the flooding potential. Nevertheless, uncertainty
remains elevated due to variability in previous model cycles.
Winds may increase by Monday into Tuesday, promoting windy
conditions across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

Mostly VFR conds across all terminals. HZ may reduce VIS due to low
to moderate concentrations of SAL over the CWA through all TAF prd.
Aftn conv over western PR may bring VCTS for JBQ btwn 1716z - 1723z.
Increasing winds from the E-ESE btwn 15 - 19 with gsty winds btwn 25
- 29, slightly reducing btwn 9 - 11 kt after 1723z.

&&

.MARINE...

A persistent Atlantic subtropical ridge extending southward into the
northern Caribbean will continue to strengthen throughout the
period. This will lead to increasing moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds, resulting in choppy seas, particularly over exposed
areas. Therefore, small craft should exercise caution. A plume of
suspended Saharan dust is expected to linger through the workweek,
reducing visibility. A tropical wave will move across the Caribbean
waters on Thursday, likely leading to an increase in thunderstorm
activity across that region.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy to locally windy conditions continue across the CWA,
maintaining a moderate risk of rip currents for most beaches of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The moderate risk should
persist throughout the workweek into the weekend, beachgoers must
exercise caution due to possible life-threatening rip currents along
these beaches. Showers and thunderstorms that may develop in the
afternoon over western/northwestern Puerto Rico could move over
coastal areas, hence, they should also stay weather alert.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather conditions are expected to deteriorate today, Tuesday,
as winds increase and a gradual decrease in moisture unfolds across
the region, following the relatively moister conditions observed on
Monday. The southern coastal plains are forecast to experience the
lowest relative humidity values, increasing the risk of fire
development and spread.

The 30-day rainfall percent of normal has declined to between 10-50%
across the southern areas, resulting in increasing areal coverage of
drying soils. With dry fuels already in place, the combination of
strengthening winds and decreasing humidity is likely to promote
more favorable conditions for enhanced wildfire potential,
particularly across wind-prone areas.

Given these evolving conditions, a Fire Danger Statement is in
effect for the southern coastal plains and hills of Puerto Rico.

Residents and land management officials should continue to exercise
caution and follow any guidance in place. Refer to the latest Fire
Danger Statement (RFDSJU) for more information.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
401 AM AST Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean will continue to move
away of the local area today.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely over western
Puerto Rico in the afternoon associated to the wave passage.

* Breezy to windy easterly winds will continue, promoting choppy
seas and moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed during the early morning
hours across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Quick passing
showers were noted along portions of eastern PR and across the USVI.
The Doppler radar estimated between 0.05-0.20 inches of rain with
this activity. Minimum temperatures were from upper 60s to low 70s
across the higher elevations of PR to the upper 70s and low 80s
across the lower elevations of the islands. The wind was from the
east around 10 mph with land breeze variations.

A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean will continue to
move mainly westward and away of the local area today. However,
shower activity associated to the wave passage will increase across
the local area from this evening through Friday. Latest guidance
suggest a peak in precipitable water content between 1.90-2.10
inches by 18z on Friday. Otherwise, a lingering weak Saharan Air
Layer and a mid-level ridge today should limit shower activity to
western PR and from streamers developing downwind of the USVI. The
hazy conditions will improve gradually today as the Saharan dust
diminish over the area. On Saturday, the mid-level ridge is
expected to be centered over the region, and limited shower
activity is anticipated once again with the typical afternoon
shower activity developing mainly over western Puerto Rico. A
broad surface high pressure stretching north from the central
Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh
trades(15-20KT), however, steering winds are expected to remain
mostly from the east to southeast through the period. Therefore,
warmer than normal temperatures are expected each day, with heat
indices ranging between 102F-108F across most lower elevations and
urban areas.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

A strong surface high pressure will continue to dominate the local
weather conditions during the forecast period, promoting winds
mostly from east to east southeast winds. A series of tropical waves
will move off from the African coast into the Caribbean region next
week (none of them with cyclonic potential at this time). The first
tropical wave is expected to pass over Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands from Monday into Tuesday, however, the latest model
guidances shows the bulk of moisture from the system remaining
south of the area. Therefore, morning showers will affect the
eastern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
followed by moderate to locally heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms over central and western Puerto Rico in the
afternoon due to daytime heating, abundant moisture and local
effects. The latest precipitable water content has above-normal
values of 1.85 to 2.00 inches, suggesting a wet pattern persisting
through mid-week. After the wave passage, a drier airmass
accompanied by Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will arrive into the
region. Therefore, expect hazy skies, reduced visibilities, poor
air quality and limited showers across the region. Warm to hot
temperatures are expected too, with temperatures rising to above-
normal values. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to low
90s in the coastal and urban areas, and from the low to mid 80s in
the higher elevations. Residents and visitors, please be aware of
these conditions and plan accordingly, particularly if planning
to do outdoor activities, summer camps or any construction under
sun exposure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, trade wind SHRA could produce
brief MVFR cigs through 19/11z across the USVI and eastern PR
terminals. Also, SHRA/TSRA expected to develop near TJBQ btw 19/18z-
22z. East winds increasing 15-20 kt with stronger gusts and sea
breeze variations aft 19/13z.

&&

.MARINE...

A subtropical Atlantic ridge extending southward into the northern
Caribbean continues to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds, resulting in choppy seas over the local Caribbean and Atlantic
waters, and local passages. Therefore, small craft should exercise
caution. A tropical wave will move across the Caribbean waters
tonight into Friday, leading to an increase in showers and
thunderstorms across the region.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

A moderate risk of rip currents will be promoted by breezy to
locally windy easterly winds for most beaches in Puerto Rico and
the US Virgin Islands. Beachgoers must exercise caution due to
life-threatening rip currents along exposed unprotected beaches. Please
be advised of the possibility of seeing afternoon thunderstorms,
particularly over western and northwestern Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
401 AM AST Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An increase in moisture associated with a departing tropical
wave is expected today across the region.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely over western
Puerto Rico this afternoon due to abundant moisture, daytime
heating and local effects.

* Hot temperatures and high humidity conditions could lead to heat
indices increasing over 105F across lower elevations and urban
areas of western and north central PR. Therefore, a Heat
Advisory was issued for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed during the overnight hours.
Passing showers were noted in and around St. Croix, and across the
Caribbean waters. The Doppler radar estimated up to 0.40 inches of
rain over the west end of St. Croix. Minimum temperatures were from
upper 60s to low 70s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico to
the upper 70s and low 80s across the lower elevations of the
islands. The wind was light and variable over land areas.

Moisture associated to a departing tropical wave will increase over
the region this morning. Latest model guidance continues to indicate
precipitable water content peaking near 1.90 inches at San Juan and
2.10 inches in Aguadilla this afternoon. Also, minor concentrations
of Saharan dust are still present over the eastern Caribbean.
Therefore, expect a mix of cloudiness and hazy skies today, with
isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon over portions of
the interior and western Puerto Rico. Across the USVI, mostly
passing showers are expected this morning, but isolated
thunderstorms can develop over the coastal waters of the islands
throughout the day. Hot temperatures and high humidity conditions
before the onset of afternoon convection could lead to heat indices
increasing between 105F-110F for a few hours, particularly across
lower elevations and urban areas of western and north central PR.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory was issued for these areas.

For Saturday and Sunday, a mid-to upper-level ridge is expected to
build across the eastern Caribbean, while an upper-level low moves
further north of the region, this will promote more stable
conditions and drier air intrusion. Therefore, shower activity will
be limited to western PR each afternoon due to the combination of
the available moisture content, daytime heating, and the sea breeze
convergence. At the surface, the Bermuda High will continue to
promote moderate to locally fresh trades (15-20KT) during the next
few days. Showers embedded in the trades will move at times across
portions of the USVI and eastern PR, but no significant rainfall
accumulations are expected with this activity.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

A broad surface high pressure system located over the central
Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh southeasterly
winds through at least Wednesday. Then, winds are expected to
become from the east as the high pressure strengthens and migrates
westward and north of the region. On Monday the combination of a
tropical wave passing near the region and a surface induced trough
northwest of the CWA will enhance the instability across the
islands. The latest precipitable water content has above normal
climatological values of 1.90 to 2.00 inches. by the beginning of
the workweek. Therefore, an increase in showers and isolated
thunderstorms is anticipated through at least Tuesday morning.

After the wave passage a drier air mass with Saharan dust
particles will return into the region. Precipitable water values
will drop to 1.25 to 1.30 inches through the end of the workweek.
During this period expect hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and
limited showers across the region. Although stable conditions are
expected, warm to hot temperatures will persist. For next week,
the maximum temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 80s
to low 90s in the coastal and urban areas, and from the low to mid
80s in the higher elevations. Residents and visitors, please be
aware of these conditions and plan accordingly, particularly if
planning to do outdoor activities under sun exposure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals.
However, SHRA/TSRA expected to increase this morning across portions
of the Caribbean waters and over mainland PR during the day. This
could lead to tempo MVFR conds at TJPS by sunrise, and across the
rest of the PR terminals by 20/16z. HZ continues over the area due
to minor concentrations of Saharan dust, but VSBY should remain
P6SM. Winds will prevail E-ESE at 12-16 kt with sea breeze
variations and higher gusts aft 20/14z.

&&

.MARINE...

A subtropical Atlantic ridge extending southward into the northern
Caribbean continues to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds, resulting in choppy seas over the local Caribbean waters,
and local passages. Therefore, small craft should exercise caution. A
departing tropical wave will continue to bring additional moisture
into the area, leading to an increase in showers and thunderstorms
across the region today. Another tropical wave should approach the
local waters by next Monday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Breezy to windy easterly winds will promote up to a moderate risk
of rip currents for beaches in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Beachgoers must exercise caution due to life-threatening
rip currents along exposed unprotected beaches. Life- threatening
rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties,
reefs, and piers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
517 AM AST Sat Jun 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over
western Puerto Rico each afternoon.

* Heat indices approaching heat advisory criteria are expected
across most coastal and lower elevations of Puerto Rico through
the weekend.

* A tropical wave is expected to move mainly south of the region
on Monday.

* Hazy conditions due to Saharan dust are expected early in the
workweek.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Calm conditions prevailed during the overnight hours, under mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies. However, passing showers were seen
over the Anegada Passage and eastern Puerto Rico, leaving minimal
accumulations over the area. Minimum temperatures were seen in the
upper 70s to low 80s across the coastal and urban areas of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to the upper 60s and low 70s in the
higher elevations. Winds prevailed from the east at 5 to 10 mph.

A mid-to-upper level ridge is expected to build over the eastern
Caribbean this weekend, promoting dry air intrusion and stable
conditions aloft. At the surface, a strong high pressure system will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
throughout the forecast period. Under the aforementioned condtions,
limited rainfall activity is expected across the region for the next
few days. Nonetheless, diurnal convective activity with showers and
isolated thunderstorms is likely across the interior and western
Puerto Rico due to diurnal heating, local orographic effects and sea
breeze convergence.

Lower concentrations of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to linger
across the islands, however, it is expected to gradually diminish by
Sunday. By Monday, a tropical wave will approach the eastern
Caribbean with the bulk of the wave remaining south of the local
islands. Moisture associated with the wave could reach the local
area promoting a increase in showers and thunderstorm activity
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. The latest precipitable
water content has values of 1.90 to 2.00 inches moving over the U.S.
Virgin Islands on Monday afternoon and progressing over Puerto Rico
by late in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Normal to above-normal temperatures will continue across the region
during the next few days. Maximum temperatures are expected to
remain in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban
areas, and from the low to mid 80s in the higher elevations. Heat
indices could reach the 105 to 108 degrees Fahrenheit each day,
particularly over the northern, western and southern municipalities
of Puerto Rico. Residents and visitors, please be aware of these
conditions and plan accordingly if planning to do outdoor activities
under sun exposure.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

A Saharan Air Layer with moderate concentrations of Saharan dust
will move across the islands on Tuesday. This will promote hazy
skies, reduced visibilities, and poor air quality. East to
southeast winds are expected to promote warmer than normal
temperatures early in the week. A broad surface high pressure
extending from the central Atlantic and a strong 850-700mb ridge
developing northeast of the region will promote breezy conditions
and drier air intrusion through Thursday. Therefore, mostly fair
weather conditions are expected through the end of the week, with
showers and isolated thunderstorms developing each afternoon over
western PR. However, a trade wind perturbation will bring a small
surge in moisture content between late Thursday and Friday. The
next tropical wave is expected to move mainly south of the region
once again by Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all TAF sites during
the forecast period. However, SHRA/TSRA expected over western Puerto
Rico could result in brief MVFR conds at TJBQ aft 21/17Z. Minor
concentrations of Saharan dust continues to linger across the area
resulting in HZ, but VSBY should remain P6SM. Winds will prevail
from the E-ESE at 14-18 kt with sea breeze variations and higher
gusts aft 21/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...

A subtropical Atlantic ridge extending southward into the northern
Caribbean continues to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds, resulting in choppy seas over portions of the local Atlantic
and Caribbean waters, and local passages. Therefore, small craft
should exercise caution. The next tropical wave should approach the
local waters by next Monday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the northern and
southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and St.
Croix. Beachgoers must exercise caution due to life-threatening
rip currents along exposed unprotected beaches across these areas.
Elsewhere the risk is low, however, life-threatening rip currents
often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1936480833705038093

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 AM AST Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over
western Puerto Rico each afternoon.

* Moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust are expected early in
the workweek.

* A tropical wave is expected to move mainly south of the region
between late tonight and Monday, trade wind perturbations and
another tropical wave are forecast to arrive late next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the region
during the overnight hours. Fast moving passing showers were seen
over the local Atlantic and Caribbean waters, as well the Anegada
passage, leaving minimal accumulations. Minimum temperatures were
seen in the upper 70s to low 80s along the urban and coastal areas,
and from the upper 60s to mid 70s in the higher elevations. Winds
were mostly from the east at 5 to 10 mph.

Today, passing showers will continue during the morning hours across
portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Then
later in the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected due
to daytime heating, local effects and sea breeze convergence across
the central and western municipalities of Puerto Rico. Breezy
conditions are expected too, as a broad surface high pressure over
the Atlantic continues to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly
to east southeasterly wind flow for the next few days. A tropical
wave is expected to approach the local islands from the east on
Monday. Although, model guidances show the bulk of moisture
remaining south of the area, some moisture will lift and reach the
area. Therefore, increasing showers and thunderstorm activity across
the region. The latest precipitable water analysis (PWAT) suggest
values up to 2.0 inches, suggesting a moist environment through at
least Tuesday morning.

By Tuesday, after the wave passage, a mass of drier air will begin
to filter into the area alongside with moderate concentrations of
Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Therefore, causing hazy skies, reduced
visibilities and deteriorated air quality. Under the dust presence,
limited showers are anticipated as the dust inhibits the development
of these clouds. Temperatures at the 925 mb will continue near
normal values during the period, with highs reaching the upper 80s
to lower 90s in the coastal and urban areas of the islands, and from
the upper 70s to low 80s in the higher elevations.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

A broad surface high pressure extending from the central Atlantic
and a strong 850-700mb ridge developing northeast of the region
will promote breezy conditions and a drying trend during the
second half of the workweek. A weak Saharan Air Layer will linger
through Thursday over the region, promoting hazy skies. Fair
weather conditions are expected in general across the islands,
with the exception of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing each day over western Puerto Rico, mainly due to the
combination of the limited moisture content with daytime heating,
and the sea breeze convergence. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
eastern Puerto Rico, showers embedded in the trade winds will
move at times, particularly during the nighttime.

By late Friday into Saturday, a TUTT-low is forecast to develop
just north/northeast of the region, and a tropical wave is
expected to enter the eastern Caribbean. These weather features
will increase shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of
the islands and local waters.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all terminals.
SHRA/TSRA expected over western, central PR, and the San Juan metro
area may result in brief MVFR conds at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS aft 21/17Z.
Winds will prevail from the E-ESE at 14-18 kt with sea breeze
variations and higher gusts aft 22/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...

A subtropical Atlantic ridge extending southward into the northern
Caribbean continues to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds, resulting in choppy seas over portions of the local Atlantic
and Caribbean waters, and local passages. Therefore, small craft
should exercise caution. The next tropical wave will move across
the Caribbean Sea between late tonight and Monday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the southeastern
beaches of Puerto Rico, and St. Croix. Beachgoers must exercise
caution due to life-threatening rip currents along exposed
unprotected beaches across these areas. Elsewhere the risk is low,
however, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the
vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
449 AM AST Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A tropical wave moving south of the region will increase shower
and thunderstorm activity today.

* Moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust are expected on Tuesday
with lower concentrations lingering through Thursday. Hazy
conditions are expected.

* Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly
over western Puerto Rico each day.

* By the end of the week into the weekend, a TUTT-low is forecast
to develop just north/northeast of the region, and another
tropical wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Variable weather conditions prevailed during the overnight hours,
under partly cloudy skies. Bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms associated with a approaching tropical wave started to
reached portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands by early morning.
Doppler radar and satellite observations estimated accumulations of
less than a quarter of an inch, particularly over St. Croix. Minimum
temperatures were observed in the upper 70s to low 80s along the
urban and coastal areas, and from the upper 60s to mid 70s in the
higher elevations. Winds were mostly from the east southeast at 5 to
10 mph.

As the day progresses, the frequency of showers will increase across
the region due to a passing tropical wave which is now located
crossing the Lesser Antilles. Although, the bulk of moisture should
remain over the Caribbean waters and north of Venezuela, its
peripheral moisture will reach the region starting this morning. The
latest precipitable water content (PWAT) has values of 1.65 to 1.90
inches and locally up to 2.00 inches. Therefore, under a high PWAT
and instability from the tropical wave the potential to observe
showers and thunderstorms increases, particularly over portions of
the interior, western and northwestern Puerto Rico. The "Yunque
Streamer" is expected to develop in the afternoon as well, affecting
portions of the San Juan metropolitan area and adjacent
municipalities. A limited to elevated risk of flooding is expected
today for the northwestern municipalities of Puerto Rico.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, drier and hazy conditions will return
as a mass of drier air accompanied with moderate concentrations of
Saharan Air Layer reach the islands. As a result, hazy skies,
reduced visibilities and poor air quality is likely. Normal to
above- normal temperatures will also continue during the next
several days with temperatures at the 925 mb reaching the upper
80s to lower 90s in the coastal and urban areas of the islands,
and from the upper 70s to low 80s in the higher elevations.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

A broad surface high pressure extending from the central Atlantic
and a strong 850-700mb ridge moving just north of the region will
continue to promote breezy conditions and drier air intrusion
through early Friday. A weak Saharan Air Layer is expected to
linger through Thursday over the region, promoting hazy skies.
Fair weather conditions are expected in general across the
islands on Thursday, with the exception of afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing over western Puerto Rico due to
diurnal and local effects. By late Friday into Saturday, a TUTT-
low is forecast to develop just north/northeast of the region.
An induced surface trough is expected to cross the region during
this period, and winds will shift from the ENE, promoting
afternoon shower development mainly over the SW quadrant of Puerto
Rico. Across the the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico,
showers are expected to increase mainly during the night.

Lingering moisture on Saturday and ESE winds behind the trough
passage will aid in the development of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms once again over the NW quadrant of PR, and downwind
from el Yunque. A tropical wave is expected to follow quickly and
enter the eastern Caribbean between late Saturday and Sunday
morning. Increasing the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms
once again across portions of the islands and local waters.


&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all terminals during
the next 24 hrs. A tropical wave will move south of the local
islands today, increasing SHRA/TSRA over western, central PR, and
the San Juan metro area. Thee conditions may result in brief MVFR
conds at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS aft 23/13-14Z. Winds will prevail from the E-
ESE at 15-18 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts aft
23/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...

A tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea will increase
showers and thunderstorms across the local waters today. A broad
surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to
promote moderate to locally fresh trades for the next few days.
Saharan dust returns early this week, promoting hazy skies across
the regional waters, particularly on Tuesday. The next tropical
wave will reach the eastern Caribbean during the weekend.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for most east, northern,
and southern beaches of the islands. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected today across portions of the coastal
waters of Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust are expected mainly
tomorrow and Thursday, with a slightly decrease in
concentrations on Wednesday. Hazy skies and poor air quality
are expected.

* Daily afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected,
particularly over northwestern Puerto Rico due to local
effects.

* By the end of the week into the weekend, a TUTT-low is forecast
to develop just north/northeast of the region, and another
tropical wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Overnight, a combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical
wave brought periods of clouds and showers across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Scattered to numerous showers were detected
by Doppler radar moving over local waters and into windward areas,
favored by east-southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Minimum temperatures
ranged from the 60s in the mountains to the mid and upper 70s along
the coast, with the moist and unstable conditions supporting
continued shower activity into the early morning hours.

Today, a drier air mass will move into the region following the
passage of the tropical wave. However, moisture from the east and
southeast trade winds will still cause showers across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, resulting in moderate to heavy rain
early this morning. In the afternoon, limited convection is
expected, with showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over
western Puerto Rico due to local effects. The flood threat in these
areas will be limited to elevated.

By this afternoon, the Saharan Air Layer is expected to bring hazy
skies, reduced visibility, and degraded air quality. Tomorrow, we
expect drier conditions with continued moderate Saharan dust
concentrations and warm temperatures, which may prompt the issuance
of Heat Advisories.

By Thursday, the lingering effects of a weak Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
will create hazy skies and generally dry weather across the region.
Most islands will experience fair conditions, but western Puerto
Rico may see isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms due to
daytime heating. A surface high-pressure system over the central
Atlantic will sustain breezy conditions, and a dry air mass above
850 mb will suppress widespread convection. Overall, expect warm,
hazy, and relatively dry conditions, with some localized afternoon
rainfall in the interior and western areas.


.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

The inherited forecast remains on track, with a TUTT-low expected to
develop just north to northeast of the region between Friday and
Saturday. During this period, an induced surface trough will move
across the area, shifting winds from the east-northeast. This
shift will favor the development of afternoon showers, primarily
across the southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, shower activity is
expected to increase mainly during the nighttime hours. Despite
this, precipitable water values are forecast to remain near
climatological normals, and 500 mb temperatures will range from
the 50th to 75th percentile. These factors suggest that while some
moisture and instability will be present, conditions will not be
particularly favorable for deep convective development or
widespread thunderstorm activity. On Saturday, lingering moisture
and the onset of east-southeasterly winds behind the trough will
once again support afternoon shower development, especially across
the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico and downwind of El
Yunque. A tropical wave is then expected to quickly follow,
entering the eastern Caribbean between late Saturday and Sunday
morning. This feature will enhance moisture and instability,
likely increasing the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the islands and surrounding local waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

Expect VFR conds at all TAF sites during the period, although some
SHRA will move across the windward locations and surrounding waters.
Then, hazy skies will persist due to the SAL, especially aft 24/15z.
VCTS will develop near JBQ around 24/17z-23z, and some SHRA/+SHRA
will impact the eastern locations of PR and the USVI early this
morning. Expect ESE winds around 10-15 kt thru 24/13Z, then winds
from the E-ESE 15-25 kt with local sea breezes with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...

A subtropical Atlantic ridge extending southward into the northern
Caribbean continues to promote moderate to fresh easterly winds,
resulting in choppy seas over portions of the local Atlantic and
Caribbean waters, and local passages. Therefore, small craft should
exercise caution. Past tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea will
continue to leave cloudiness and some shower activity across the
across the local waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Wave heights of around 3 to 4 feet and a moderate risk of rip
currents are expected along most beaches of Puerto Rico,
including Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A
moderate risk indicates that life-threatening rip currents are
possible in the surf zone. As a result, beachgoers are encouraged
to exercise caution.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
516 AM AST Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* There is a Heat Advisory and a Fire Weather Statement in effect
for today.

* A large plume of suspended Saharan dust particles will promote
hazy skies and poor air quality through Friday.

* Another tropical wave is expected to approach Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands from the eastern Caribbean by late
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Overnight, a Saharan Air Layer promoted hazy skies, limiting the
nighttime cooling across the islands. Thus, we observed warmer-than-
normal minimum temperatures. However, the Doppler radar detected
some showers being advected by the easterlies, especially across the
local waters and windward locations. Winds were mainly from the east
at 10-15 mph with higher gusts. Minimum temperatures ranged from the
mid-70s in the mountains to the low 80s along the coast.

Today, a large plume of suspended Saharan dust particles will
promote hazy skies through at least early Friday morning, degrading
the air quality across the USVI and PR. Although we are not
expecting widespread rain activity due to the dry air supported by
the Saharan Air Layer, we cannot rule out that the easterlies push
pockets of clouds, producing occasional brief periods of passing
rains across the windward locations.

Additionally, due to the warmer-than-normal minimum temperatures
observed during the overnight hours, it will be easier to reach
above-normal maximum temperatures this afternoon. This, combined
with the available moisture, will result in warm-to-hot heat
indices. Thus, we issued a Heat Advisory for most of the coastal
urban areas of PR.

For Today and Thursday, upper-level dynamics are weak, which models
indicate will provide minimal mid- to upper-level support over the
region. As a result, any convection will likely be diurnally driven
due to orographic and sea-breeze effects, resulting in showers and
one or two isolated thunderstorms, primarily confined to western PR.

A trade wind perturbation will move near the islands of PR and the
USVI by Friday, replacing the drier air mass and increasing the
potential for showers and afternoon thunderstorms across the region.
Regardless of this weather pattern, expect seasonable, typical
early‑summer weather, consisting of passing showers across the
windward areas in the morning, followed by afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms. There is no indication of organized or
large‑scale precipitation events through Friday.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

The latest model guidance suggests a surface trough lingering
across the region on Saturday, bringing east-southeast winds.
This shift in wind flow is expected to favor the development of
afternoon showers, particularly over the northwestern quadrant of
Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is forecast to move in from the eastern
Caribbean between late Saturday and early Sunday. As it
approaches, increased moisture and instability will likely enhance
the coverage of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
islands and adjacent waters. Forecast models indicate that the
moisture content will extend from the surface to mid- and upper
levels, potentially allowing convective activity to develop
vertically. This increases the risk of localized flooding,
especially during periods of heavier rainfall.

Despite this weekends unsettled/variable weather pattern,
conditions are expected to gradually improve starting by the
beginning of the workweek as a broad, drier air mass moves into
the region. Additionally, model guidance from the Dust Aerosol
Optical Thickness product suggests the arrival of Saharan dust,
potentially resulting in a moderate dust event. Aerosol optical
depth values are projected to range from 0.20 to 0.30, likely
persisting through the middle of the week.

We encourage the public to stay informed and monitor future
updates to the forecast as conditions evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)

Expect mostly VFR conditions at all TAF sites during the period.
Expect hazy skies with visibilities around 6SM due to a SAL, which
will limit rain activity. However, we cannot rule out VCTS near JBQ
around 25/17z-23z, with some quick passing SHRA/+SHRA near eastern
PR and USVI terminals throughout the day. Expect winds ranging from
10-15 kt through at least 25/13Z, then from the E-ENE at 15-25 knots
with local sea breezes accompanied by higher gusts up to 35 kt.

&&

.MARINE...

The surface high pressure across the Atlantic will support moderate
to fresh easterly winds, resulting in choppy seas over local Atlantic
and Caribbean waters. The presence of suspended Saharan dust will
continue to result in reduce visibility through the end of the
workweek. A trade wind perturbation will arrive around Friday,
increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms, followed by
another tropical wave during the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Moderate risk of rip currents are expected along most beaches of
Puerto Rico, including Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands through Thursday. A moderate risk indicates that life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. As a
result, beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution. Similar
conditions are expected to continue over the next few days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier airmass with Saharan Dust particles will be dominating
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Relative humidity
values will be falling within the critical fire weather conditions
mainly across the southern sections of Puerto Rico. Winds will be
stronger around 15 to 18 mph. Therefore, there is a moderate fire
danger threat for today. For additional information go to our Fire
Danger Statement (RFDSJU) product.