2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development after that time and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Code Red

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of days
off the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development after that time and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week. This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward just off the coasts
of Central America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

Ensembles and globals showing potential for yet another one after that 0/70 AOI.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of days
off the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development after that time and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week. This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward just off the coasts
of Central America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1936484321033933138

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located a couple
of hundred miles offshore of Central America. An area of low
pressure is forecast to develop from this system within the next day
or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua through the early part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located a couple
of hundred miles offshore of Central America. An area of low
pressure is forecast to develop from this system within the next day
or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua through the early part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[Astromanía]

I don't like the number of major landfalls we've seen in recent years, even during unfavorable seasons.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located a
few hundred miles offshore of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or
over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward
off the coast of southern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
across portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, and
Guatemala through the early part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Kingarabian]

Models in the short and medium range seem to be combining this AOI with another area of low pressure and development looks to be delayed.

[cycloneye]

Yes Kingarabian.They delayed development from midweek to late week or weekend.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Invest 95E is up

[cycloneye]

This is not 95E but another GFS long range one that looks very strong close to the Island of Socorro.

[cycloneye]

For a change from the Mexico landfalls and close to coast, GFS on long range has a semi long tracker that reaches 120W.

[Kingarabian]

Happy hour GFS has 3 in its 16 day forecast.

[Yellow Evan]

200 mbar pattern in the long range looks surprisingly El Nino like with upper westerlies over much of the basin.

[cycloneye]

GFS has crossover to CPAC and then another longtracker behind.

[cycloneye]

EPAC keeps rolling.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

I am surprised by the very active basin without El Niño and look like it will continue to remain that way for the next couple of weeks. What do the members think about this?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I am surprised by the very active basin without El Niño and look like it will continue to remain that way for the next couple of weeks. What do the members think about this?

Feels like the anti-2024 with all of this early-season activity, pretty crazy for a non-Niño year (although many -ENSO years do tend to be front-loaded).

I will say it appears suppressive intraseasonal conditions return by the second week of July, so after that I wouldn't be surprised if things finally begin to slow down.