ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 90, 2025062218, , BEST, 0, 313N, 576W, 20, 1017, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1019, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al732025 to al902025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902025.dat

[Sciencerocks]

IF this had more time but it only has about 24-36 hours before conditions become unfavorable. We will see nonetheless as it already has a decent broad circulation with convection...Wouldn't take much for it to be a depression or low end tropical storm. Don't expect much of it if it is upgraded. Andrea is typically a very weak system or even subtropical so it is fitting.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1936838042490171678

[LarryWx]

Joe Bastardi calls these types of borderline systems outside of the tropics “ham sandwiches”. I have no idea why. Last year there were few unlike two years ago.

[galaxy401]

Is this the latest we had the first Atlantic invest in awhile?

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1936853618050879760



Has an LLC. If it can tighten and maintain convection this could very well become a tropical cyclone.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

90L looks quite good right now.

[StormWeather]

90L looks quite good right now.
https://i.imgur.com/TWh4twm.gif

Best Invest I’ve seen in a while. Just waiting on the 8PM outlook on it. I’m betting they go 30%/30% then.

[TallyTracker]

It almost looks like the upper and lower circulations are slightly decoupled. With that said, the low-level circulation appears to be fully closed. I’d say if trends continue we could have a short TD/weak TS.

[StormWeather]

90L looks quite good right now.
https://i.imgur.com/TWh4twm.gif

Best Invest I’ve seen in a while. Just waiting on the 8PM outlook on it. I’m betting they go 30%/30% then.

But convention-wise, it’s not as organized as I would like for a TD or TS/STS.
[img]goes19_ir_90L_202506222105.gif[/img]

[Hurricane2022]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with an area of the low pressure located about 450 miles
east of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the
system possessed a well-defined surface circulation, and additional
organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity could lead to
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression over the next day
or so. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less
favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for
further development. Regardless of development, the system is
forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the
open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Papin

[StormWeather]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with an area of the low pressure located about 450 miles
east of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the
system possessed a well-defined surface circulation, and additional
organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity could lead to
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression over the next day
or so. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less
favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for
further development. Regardless of development, the system is
forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the
open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Papin

Code orange really quickly huh? All right.

[TomballEd]

Joe Bastardi calls these types of borderline systems outside of the tropics “ham sandwiches”. I have no idea why. Last year there were few unlike two years ago.

I've heard phrases like 'even a ham sandwich can win that election'. It is outside the tropics and it will use the name and 40 years ago Neil Frank was not in favor of naming storms forming out of the tropics that would affect nobody but shipping. They've been naming systems like this for at least 30 years. It looks pretty good, it might make a run at a name before its gets to colder water and higher shear.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2025062300, , BEST, 0, 320N, 570W, 25, 1016, LO

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/AlanSevere/status/1936971488172671220

[StormWeather]

 https://x.com/AlanSevere/status/1936971488172671220

Fox Weather was thinking that June would go by without a TC, and it seems that this little guy (90L) snuck up on us.

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles
east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates
the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum
sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are
only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and
persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is
likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical
depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system
is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions,
ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of
development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

It made a good run and was borderline TC last night, but can say is over now.