How many named storms will form in July?

[cycloneye]

Ok peeps, here is the July poll that will close for voting on June 30 at 10 PM EDT. In the June Poll, only 29 members voted so I want to see more than that number in this poll.

[StormWeather]

I am feeling like 1-4 storms could form in July based on my 2008 and 2017 analogs.

[DunedinDave]

Hate to scare Florida folks but I think 2025 is a repeat of 2024. We will be sitting here on September 15 saying why is this season so quiet?

And then BOOM…

And usually late September to October storms, Florida is the victim.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think this season will be much closer to your "average" hurricane season as far as early season activity. I am going with 2 storms in July.

[chaser1]

I agree with Kyle (above) regarding July activity. Early on I did not believe that this season would produce any early season named storms nor any named storm during June for that matter. I'm sticking with my original thought that we'll see our 1st named storm during early July. Thereafter, I anticipate we'll see 1 or 2 additional named storms prior to August 1st but for the sake of this poll selected a total of two named storms for July (1 hurricane & 1 T.S.)

My guess would be that at least one storm will form somewhere between just east of Puerto Rico, the N.E. Caribbean and the Bahamas. Otherwise, I could see one storm potentially developing in the BOC or West GOM as well.

Far more telling than "how many" will form though, will be "where" genesis does occur, where their storm tracks will take them, and the synoptic conditions that will ultimately give us some additional perspective regarding the broad state of atmospheric stability/instability. Naturally, if no named storms were to form in July.... well that alone would be a very interesting signal.

[cycloneye]

Bumping the poll as voting closes on June 30th at 10:00 PM EDT.

[StormWeather]

I’m feeling less confident about my July prediction due to the fact that the EURO wants a bone dead July and the fact that the high pressure ridge is so strong and causing too much wind shear in the ATL right now.

[TomballEd]

I'm suspect no systems of tropical origin in July, but between non-tropical origins and maybe something end of July I answered '2'.

If I bust on 2, it will be less than 2.

[cycloneye]

I will allow members to change their vote until wednesday.

[AnnularCane]

It's possible my June prediction of just one measly little storm might have been too optimistic so I'm going with none for July.

That being said, some others seem to be predicting more activity in July or at the very least things heading in that direction. At least that's what I heard recently.

[Dean_175]

I’m feeling less confident about my July prediction due to the fact that the EURO wants a bone dead July and the fact that the high pressure ridge is so strong and causing too much wind shear in the ATL right now.

It is way too early to declare that that any model predicts zero storms in July. Models simply are not accurate that far out. Ill pay more attention if it still shows this after the first week of July.

[StormWeather]

I’m feeling less confident about my July prediction due to the fact that the EURO wants a bone dead July and the fact that the high pressure ridge is so strong and causing too much wind shear in the ATL right now.

It is way too early to declare that that any model predicts zero storms in July. Models simply are not accurate that far out. Ill pay more attention if it still shows this after the first week of July.

My July prediction still stands (I predicted 2 storms). I just feel less confident because this is one of the most hostile early season environments I’ve seen in years.

[AnnularCane]

It's possible my June prediction of just one measly little storm might have been too optimistic so I'm going with none for July.

Maybe not. I might stick with this prediction anyway though.

[CyclonicFury]

I think we'll probably get one, probably fairly weak. By and large July should be quiet though

[Category5Kaiju]

One. And that storm, Barry, will be a sloppy, disorganized, weak TS.

[cycloneye]

The poll closes for voting tonight at 10 PM EDT.

[wzrgirl1]

2

[cycloneye]

Already 5 members that voted none are out of the winning possibility.

[AnnularCane]

Already 5 members that voted none are out of the winning possibility.

Even before Chantal I had a feeling I’d be wrong.